Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune, “In a note to clients issued early Thursday, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster offered his estimated earnings per share under the new and old rules for fiscal years 2009 (which ends in two days) and 2010.”
• 2009 EPS: $8.21, up from $5.71 — a 43.8% increase
• 2010 EPS: $8.90, up from $6.00 — a 48% increase
“Apple wouldn’t be required to switch to the new accounting method until Dec. 2010, but Munster expects the company will start as soon as possible, probably with the new fiscal year that begins next week,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. “‘While this has been expected for the last month, we believe this will be a positive for shares of AAPL,’ he wrote, before raising his price target to $235 from $186.”
Much more in the full article here.
We could all use some fresh gains after the wild ride of the last year.
If Munster had a recent prediction of $186 he doesn’t have a clue about AAPL’s future. Everyone seems to think they know the expected near time high. Let’s just say it is up up and a way for now.
What’s with the downstroke this fine morn? I know everything is only a bunch o’ BS, but what is this BS? Housing data?
will this be a one-time gain, or will it impact AAPL on a going forward basis? if so, how?
Munster put out a research note just 10 days ago on the 14th, where he reiterated his $186 price target, so now, just 10 days later he ups his target to $235. That’s almost as lame as Katie Huberty who once downgraded Apple twice in a week, based upon a Changewave survey that turned out to be wrong.
This is NOT a one-time gain, but an ongoing increase.
I wrote a long Opinion piece after the last conference call, spelling out all the non-GAAP and GAAP figures, and sent it to MDN, but they never published it.
You don’t have to take Munster’s estimates to figure out what is going on, you only need to read Apple’s last four earnings press releases and do a little math. This is what they said:
GAAP Net Income
2008Q4 = $1.26
2009Q1 = $1.78
2009Q2 = $1.33
2009Q3 = $1.35
Last 4 quarters GAAP Net Income was $5.69.
Non-GAAP Net Income
2008Q4 = $2.69
2009Q1 = $2.56
2009Q2 = $1.84
2009Q3 = $2.14
Last 4 quarters Non-GAAP Net Income was $9.18.
Lo and behold, not far different that Munster’s estimates of this Fiscal Year’s results. I mean the only quarter missing is the current one. We have all the results from the other three quarters because Apple told us already what the non-GAAP numbers are.
And, as far as I can tell, the Non-GAAP result is about 61% higher than the GAAP one. I don’t expect that to change too much with one new quarter to add.
At $235 I could sell just 10 shares and buy the iPhone and pay the two year contract.
This means that Apple has the option of no longer charging for MacOS upgrades.