“The current GAAP 2010 earnings consensus for Apple (AAPL) is $6.85. Assuming Q4 iPhone sales of 8M to 11M, Apple will close out FY 2009 with somewhere between $12B and $14B in deferred iPhone revenues. This equates to somewhere between $3.64 and $4.02 in deferred GAAP EPS to be realized in 2010,” Stefan Sidahmed writes for Seeking Alpha.
“For argument’s sake, let’s say Apple sells 9.5M iPhones in Q4 2009. This equates to $3.85 in deferred earnings to be recognized in 2010 and $1.75 in 2011. These earnings are already booked. The iPhones were sold in 2008 and 2009,” Sidahmed explains. “This means the analysts, on average, are expecting Apple to earn $6.85 – $3.85 = $3.00 in new earning in 2010 from iPods, computers and iPhones.”
“To generate $3.00 in EPS Apple needs to sell about $26B in iPods and computers in all of FY 2010,” Sidahmed writes. “In the first 3 quarters of 2009 alone they have sold $26.7B in non-iPhone products, so this doesn’t seem like much of a hurdle… I don’t know what the analysts are looking at.”
Sidahmed writes, “To sum this up: Under current GAAP rules, for Apple to meet analyst expectations for 2010 they only need to sell as many computers and iPods as they did in the first 3 quarters of 2009. No iPhones need to be sold to meet analyst expectations… Even after more than doubling from less than $80/share to over $180/share, Apple can still double – again.”
Full article here.
Pump baby, pump ! (& dump)
Don’t jinx it by talking about. Papa wants to buy a new fishing boat.
pump ! (& dump)…That’s how some are conceived…
And this Papa is just about ready to spring for a new Chrysler 300C, thanks to AAPL. First I want to sell my current 2007 red 300 rather than trade it. Who wants it? 22k miles and a 60k mile B-B warranty. $16.5k, Any takers?
“pump ! (& dump)…That’s how some are conceived..”
if they were negative about Apple, you’d be bitching even more.
Seems like a pretty shitty deal for you. No matter what you’re unhappy.
@ mike,
“pump ! (& dump)…That’s how some are conceived..”
He was talking about fornication for creation. You know, the ultimate ego trip. Making another me.
Lighten up guys, I was trying to highlight the investment mentality of some who for put profits over substance, technology , quality or any thing else that might require more than an impulsive action. Didn’t mean to offend anyone and in case you can’t tell I’m very happy with Apple products, Steve Jobs and most things the company does.
Don’t buy a Chrylser. Buy a Ford. At least they are government owned.
Now Ford is government owned?
What did I miss?
Uhh….2010 is going to be interesting.
How can these analysts NOT see it? It takes a diehard fanboy site (and seeking alpha..whatever that is) and its followers to see something that these guys are paid to calculate?
Stefan Sidahmed forgot to mention that the 2010 iPhone revenues will also be deferred. So unless Apple changes its accounting policy it is Stefan Sidahmed who got it all wrong.
Sadly, I could never pump and dump simultaneously; it sure would be a more efficient use of restroom time.
Stock split would be nice…
If Apple’s stock doubles again, it will have a market cap worth more than Microsoft…46% more than Microsoft at its current (stagnant) price.
Shouldn’t be a problem. 300 at least, but more likely 400 per share by Jan 2011. No Problem.
Sorry a typo, at least they (Ford) “aren’t” government owned. Busy day at work. Need to make $$ while there is still some semblance of an economy left. After maobamacare, cap and tax, and stimulus 3, not to mention tax increases and unionizing everything, there won’t be any way to make a living in the US soon enough. And our enemies will role right in and take over with all of the military cuts going on. This group in charge right now is horrific!
Markkus wrote: “Stefan Sidahmed forgot to mention that the 2010 iPhone revenues will also be deferred. So unless Apple changes its accounting policy it is Stefan Sidahmed who got it all wrong.”
I did address this. Read the whole article.
Stefan
@ Stefan Sidahmed,
How do we know you are the real Stefan Sidahmed?
We need proof – what’s your Social Security number?
Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1500 sometime in the next 3 years.