Analysis carried out by Generator Research shows that Apple’s iPhone mobile business could knock Nokia from the top spot in the smartphone market, and transform the mobile services market.
“Our analysis is that the iPhone and App Store constitute a vertical platform for the delivery of advanced mobile services that will be developed in a similar manner to how Apple developed its digital music platform, which included the iPod and the iTunes Music Store. Outsiders are rewriting the mobile industry’s rulebook for how to deliver mobile services and the new rule #1 is that you need a fully-integrated service development platform that has a rich API which is open to third party developers on favourable commercial terms. Right now, Apple has the best platform and the best-looking forward roadmap,” says Andrew Sheehy, head of research at Generator, in the press release.
Generator’s research finds that with cash reserves exceeding $25 billion, 33% gross margins and the iPhone just about to enter its fastest-growth phase, Apple has the resources, competencies and motivation to invest in the mobile sector just at the time when the economic climate is forcing many established players in the mobile industry to cut back on product development. The impact on some incumbent players could be substantial, with Nokia’s share of the smartphone market falling from 40% today to 20% by 2013.
“We think that Apple will use its financial strength and revenue velocity to try to get one or more design cycles ahead of the competition. The result could see Apple shipping as many as 77 million iPhones in calendar 2013. By that time the iPhone will include a range of different models, each addressing different market segments and the App Store will have developed to the point where third party developers have access to network assets that will allow them to write programs that can send messages and establish voice calls between different iPhones,” said Sheehy.
Generator’s analysis is presented in the report “Apple: iPhone and App Store” published on 12 January 2009. The £190.00 report is available here.
Source: Generator Research Ltd.
MacDailyNews Take: Bloodbath.
“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” – Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, April 30, 2007
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Markim” for the heads up.]
and without a “real” keyboard too…
“send messages and establish voice calls between different iPhones”
Not too clear on that. Do they mean without using the services providers network effectively turning the phones into short range walkie talkies. If so, that’d be pretty cool.
We’ll see
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I agree about the smartphone market. but in the regular i.e. cheap handset market, Nokia sells more than 1M per day!
Palm Pre looks like a huge contender, however they’re 2 years behind. Everyone that has an iPhone are too satisfied with great software and service that they couldn’t be bothered looking else where. And that theres more game apps.
Sure the Palm Pre may function better than the iPhone, but as the mass moves around, and more people use the iPhone, the iPhone shall dominate.
bioness,
You’re joking, right?
To state, “Sure the Palm Pre may function better than the iPhone,” based on nothing more than a video, a demo and a spec sheet, 6 months before it’s released, and without knowing where iPhone itself will be in 6 months is far too great a leap to be taken even remotely seriously.
I agree with MDN: The whole Palm Pre dog and pony show is nothing more than buyout bait.
Apple will not proliferate models. They will add new versions on top of older versions until there are maybe 4 variants. They will not vary much in size since an optimal screen experience is one of the basic qualities of the iPhone. They will be differentiated by RAM and other new, hardware features. As these phones are introduced the older but continuing models will be moved down the price chain to accommodate the newer model(s) on top.
The other main distinguishing feature for iPhones is the APP store. As new hardware features are added to the iPhone, new apps will be created that only work with the new features, further differentiating the different models.
2013? I think that’s conservative.
I say 2010
They see that Apple can make a phone and they see the app store / iTunes software. What all these clueless idiots can’t see is the new chips Apple will bring to the cell phone industry soon.
You all do remember that high end chip design company that Apple picked up last year. What do you think Apple is getting them to work on?
One more thing, one of the articles mentioned that Pre has few new features, including slide out keyboard. New feature?!
In the related story, Apple introduced new Mac mini which comes with several new features, one of which is floppy drive.
“”There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” – Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, April 30, 2007″
What good is a CEO that not only fails to steer his company to make better products but also who fails to recognize a superior product when presented with one.
Pete,
Ballmer recognized it was vastly better. So much so that he felt he had to do something to talk it down. Imagine if he and everyone else had said what he really thought!
iPhone to iPhone voice, chat and videochat over iChat will be with us in 2009 I predict.
There should be a separate category for the iPhone. the iPhone can not be compare with the typical “smart” phone. It is way ahead of the regular smart phones. Or may be they need to redefine the “Smart” concept since you can do even half of the functions of the iPhone with the average “smart” phone.
The phone history has been divided in two, Before iPhone and After iPhone.
@ viktor,
The ‘cell’ phone history has been divided in two, Before iPhone and After iPhone.
“the App Store will have developed to the point where third party developers have access to network assets that will allow them to write programs that can send messages and establish voice calls between different iPhones”
I think we’re talking Star Trek Communicator here. I don’t think AT&T;would allow this, they must have been smart enough to put a clause in the contract with Apple to prevent these types of apps… you’d think.
Anyone know?
@Fred Mertz
Palm Pre is a big contender in the same way SanDisk is iPod’s top competitor. Pre’s not an iPhone, but when you hold it next to a Blackberry Storm or an HTC…
@ Jersey_Trader
You are right, Apple leaving the intel chip that’s in the iPhone and they will use there own chip. It’s because of intel selling that same chip to other phone company’s thats the reason we have so many iPhone clones
I don’t think there is an Intel chip in the IPhone and no other smart phone has an Intel chip either. Intel was trying to get the Atom processor into portable devices but power consumption is still too high.
Too bad the world ends in 2012…
PC: It is not good because it doesn’t have a keyboard and I can’t remove the battery.
Mac: But it talks to God.
Sorry, the iPhone has no chance anymore.
The Palm Pre will take over the world. It’s the iPhone Assassin.
@dave
Just because they come in a six-pack doesn’t mean you need to drink all six bottles at one sitting. Because if you do you can’t drive safely and you say things like: “The Palm Pre will take over the world.”