JMP Securities analyst doesn’t think Apple is recession-proof

“JMP Securities analyst Samuel Wilson wrote in a research note that his checks with 30 retail stores – 20 Apple stores and 10 Best Buys – found most sales people steering customers away from the MacBook Pro and toward the less expensive MacBook. ‘We were repeatedly told that that Pro is designed for the design community, with a high-end video card and large screen, and that we would be better with a MacBook for the cost,’ he writes,” Eric Savitz reports for Barron’s.

“Meanwhile, Wilson also writes that Apple has canceled memory orders recently with Asian suppliers. He thinks it could indicate that sales have not met forecasted demand. Wilson also notes that growth is slowing in the computer business overall, and that ‘with much of the world on the brink of or entering a recession, it is just that much more difficult for Apple to put up high growth rates,'” Savitz reports.

“Finally, Wilson thinks low-cost small form factor netbooks from competitors on the PC side ‘could create a real challenge for high-priced Apple products.’ Concludes Wilson: ‘At this point, valuation is not compelling,'” Savitz reports. “He maintains a Market Perform rating on the stock.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Mr. Wilson is either confused or something else. Either way, the conclusions he seems to have drawn are wrong.

“One factor for next quarter’s guidance and [lower] gross margins is a future product transition which I cannot discuss today… We are very confident in our product pipeline… We will be delivering state-of-the-art new products that our competitors will not be able to match going forward.” – Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer during Apple’s Q308 Conference Call, July 21, 2008

So-called “analysts” really should listen in to conference calls of companies that they’re supposed to be “analyzing.”

53 Comments

  1. Yes, Windows PC manufactures are on hard times. And the horse saddle manufacturers were on hard times as the automobiles came into favor. Macs are taking market share from them and the Windows PC manufactures can only cannibalize each other.

  2. I really think those ‘future product transition which I cannot discuss today’ have already been released.

    They are called iPods. State of the art. Lower price points. Competitors can’t match them.

    What’s missing from the description of those future products?

  3. Al, you’re one moronic douchebag, aren’t you?

    You probably think Obama has a chance of winning the election, too:

    An AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them “lazy,” “violent,” responsible for their own troubles.

    The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.

    40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.

    More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can’t win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don’t have such views.

    Given a choice of several positive and negative adjectives that might describe blacks, 20 percent of all whites said the word “violent” strongly applied. Among other words, 22 percent agreed with “boastful,” 29 percent “complaining,” 13 percent “lazy” and 11 percent “irresponsible.” When asked about positive adjectives, whites were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment.

    Among white independents, racial stereotyping is not uncommon. For example, while about 20 percent of independent voters called blacks “intelligent” or “smart,” more than one third latched on the adjective “complaining” and 24 percent said blacks were “violent.”

    “We still don’t like black people,” said John Clouse, 57, reflecting the sentiments of his pals gathered at a coffee shop in Somerset, Ohio.

    Nearly four in 10 white independents agreed that blacks would be better off if they “try harder.”

    Of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s backers… just 59 percent of her white Democratic supporters said they wanted Obama to be president. Nearly 17 percent of Clinton’s white backers plan to vote for McCain.

    Among white Democrats, Clinton supporters were nearly twice as likely as Obama backers to say at least one negative adjective described blacks well, a finding that suggests many of her supporters in the primaries — particularly whites with high school education or less — were motivated in part by racial attitudes.

    The survey of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 5. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.

    http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-obama-race

  4. Nearly four in 10 black independents agreed that whites would be better off if they “try harder.”

    Nearly four in 10 white independents agreed that whites would be better off if they “try harder.”

    Nearly four in 10 black independents agreed that blacks would be better off if they “try harder.”

    Nearly four in 10 independent Kangaroos agreed that Kangaroos would be better off if they “try harder.”

    What a load of rubbish!

  5. How the Democrats Created the Financial Crisis

    Some might say the current mess couldn’t be foreseen, yet in 2005 Alan Greenspan told Congress how urgent it was for it to act in the clearest possible terms: If Fannie and Freddie “continue to grow, continue to have the low capital that they have, continue to engage in the dynamic hedging of their portfolios, which they need to do for interest rate risk aversion, they potentially create ever-growing potential systemic risk down the road,” he said. “We are placing the total financial system of the future at a substantial risk.”

    What happened next was extraordinary. For the first time in history, a serious Fannie and Freddie reform bill was passed by the Senate Banking Committee. The bill gave a regulator power to crack down, and would have required the companies to eliminate their investments in risky assets.

    If that bill had become law, then the world today would be different. In 2005, 2006 and 2007, a blizzard of terrible mortgage paper fluttered out of the Fannie and Freddie clouds, burying many of our oldest and most venerable institutions. Without their checkbooks keeping the market liquid and buying up excess supply, the market would likely have not existed.

    But the bill didn’t become law, for a simple reason: Democrats opposed it on a party-line vote in the committee, signaling that this would be a partisan issue. Republicans, tied in knots by the tight Democratic opposition, couldn’t even get the Senate to vote on the matter.

    That such a reckless political stand could have been taken by the Democrats was obscene even then. Wallison wrote at the time: “It is a classic case of socializing the risk while privatizing the profit. The Democrats and the few Republicans who oppose portfolio limitations could not possibly do so if their constituents understood what they were doing.”

    Now that the collapse has occurred, the roadblock built by Senate Democrats in 2005 is unforgivable.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20670001&refer;=&sid=aSKSoiNbnQY0

  6. While this is obviously not affecting sales numbers, I find it plausible that Best Buy sales people might be providing this information. I have never found Best Buy staff to be even semi-informed on any product in my experiences.
    While I am not a fan of overselling, I would be inclined to mention why someone who is not part of the design community might find it beneficial to purchase a higher end laptop.

  7. Those memory orders that Apple canceled was because the low memory nano got cancelled. Let’s twist that as a negative and short the stock! Idiots. It is funny how this works. The same firms will tell you that nintendo is a strong buy because when things are bad, people hunker down, stay at home and play $3000. worth of brand new video games instead of going out to eat. Douches.

  8. Hey, whoever’s posting that political drivel in this forum, please stop.

    It’s drivel because the author, Mr. Hassett, completely ignores that in 2005 both houses of Congress were run by … surprise! … Republicans! And the president was, hmm, who was he again? Oh yes, George W. Bush, who is a Republican!

    And for those who don’t know, the above hit piece on Obama was written by Kevin Hassett who is … wait for it … an adviser to John McCain’s presidential campaign. And what did McCain say a few weeks ago about financial regulation? That he was OPPOSED to it!!

    Not exactly an unbiased source, are you Mr. Hassett? You sure are know how to be a pot calling the kettle black…

    Anyway, let’s all stop posting political nonsense in this forum and get back to discussing Macs and iPhones and Apple’s falling stock price.

  9. Obama will be the next President of the US, of this I have no doubt. The current recession was caused by a number of factors including a FED that kept interest rates low for too long, Wall Street’s desire for more mortgages that could bundled and sold and an American public that got in over it’s head in order to live the American dream.

    Despite that we see lines for the new iPhone and crowds at Apple conferences and events and Mac share continuing to climb. Apple is NOT recession proof but Apple has clearly showed that people are willing to pay top dollar for products that are technology superior to anything on the market. The fact that Apple stock has done so poorly is indicative of just how far removed the people on Wall Street are from reality. What do they want Apple to do invent a transporter a-la Star Trek?

    What I see when I go into Apple stores are people who are sick and tired of their PC’s and willing to spend more money for a great brand experience. Apple may not be recession proof but the market and people who want Apple products are obviously not that effected by the current recession and do have money to spend on Apple products.

    Something else that is puzzling is that people are willing to spend big bucks for Toyota Prisus’s and Mini’s. I passed by a Mini dealer to look at the new Clubman and the sticker was $48,000 ! For a damn Mini?????? That’s as much as a 5 series BMW. For the money you spend on a Prius you could purchase a Ford Focus or Kia and purchase gas for the next 3-5 years.

    People will continue to spend money on themselves if it makes them feel good and nothing feels better than getting a box from Apple

  10. Stupidity Knows No Bounds,

    That’s for sure.

    FACT: Democrats opposed it on a party-line vote in the committee, signaling that this would be a partisan issue.

    Joe “Serial Plagiarist” Biden is a total whack job and Obama has done nothing.

    McCain is a great Amercian and a hero and Sarah Plain is not just the future VP, she’ll be the first U.S. woman President someday!

  11. Well, they are all corrupt-bar none. If you go to a certain level you are beholden to the money that put you their. Plus both parties are not run by the one on top, but rather the people who have the connections, longest in, and those whom are the most able to abide by the parties policies- and that means both.
    Have they or any posted their resume, voting record, attendance, or plans they wish to do for review? No, because they must get your vote before they can work for those whom they serve.
    If you do not believe it, try to make them live on their pay only and watch the roaches run in all directions.
    Fools believe in parties, politictions, and ethics they say they have.

    Do like science and put it up for review!
    Do like a business plan, submit it to the people.
    Show us your job history!

    I hate politics! Mac’s RULE!

  12. @Rich Apple Person

    “…Something else that is puzzling is that people are willing to spend big bucks for Toyota Prisus’s and Mini’s. I passed by a Mini dealer to look at the new Clubman and the sticker was $48,000 ! For a damn Mini?????? …”

    I have one of those. John Cooper Works Turbo charged, 230HP, fire breathing urban ninja of a car. Love the thing. Handles like a slot car.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.