Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has reiterated his “Buy” rating and $250 price target on Apple {AAPL).
Citing NPD data for the first month of Apple’s September quarter which suggests better-than-expected sales of both Macs and iPods, Munster believes the NPD data indicates 2.7-2.9 million Macintosh units sold, which is higher than the Street’s consensus estimate of 2.65 million units; that would be year-over-year growth of 25-29% growth, compared to the Street’s expected growth of 23%. For iPod’s, Munster believes that the NPD data foreshadows units of 10.7-11.2 million, vs. the Street’s estimate of 10.8 million. That’s year-over-year iPod growth of 5-10% vs. the Street’s estimate of 6%.
Munters believes that if Apple reaches the unit sales estimates mentioned above (along with an expected 4.1 million iPhones), at a gross margin of 32%, Apple could hit earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19 on sales of $8.5 billion for its first fiscal quarter. These numbers compare to the Street’s consensus estimates of $1.11 and $8.08 billion and Apple’s previously-issued and notoriously-conservative guidance of $1.00 on sales of $7.8 billion.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Chuckles the Microsoft CEO” for the heads up.]
so does apple drop a few per share then out of no where articles appear of apple price target being well over 200…. then stock goes up a little next day.. then it declines out of no where then some more random articles of how well apple will do. etc, and it repeats.
at some point the stock is gonna move up
I predict that over the next 12 months Apple’s stock will be up on some days and down on others.
North American markets are way down again. People are selling their good stocks to cover debts in other areas. It just bring things down more. Almost everything on Wall Street is in the red today. Let’s face it, the ‘r’ word is having its effect on us all and will continue until the US election and maybe until early next year.
SO hold tight, Apple will be fine, eventually.
One reads that Appl is going to go up to $250 so I rush to look at Appl and down down down it goes. Of course I will hold on to it but it kills me when a company is doing so well and analysts are stating this and their predictions that it will go up and the opposite happens.
Hope this all changes when the US elections are over as cptnkirk already mentioned. I suspect he is right.
Unfortunately, this stock needs a steady diet of good news just to stay where it is. But not TOO good (such as great quarterly earnings), or it will drop like a rock. This may be the first year in a decade that the stock price doesn’t appreciate. Too many naked short sellers and FUD via internet.
AAPL will appreciate significantly in the 4th calendar quarter–always does.
“I predict that over the next 12 months Apple’s stock will be up on some days and down on others.”
And THAT is the wisest prediction I have heard.
Make no mistake about it, if the Dems get Obama elected, Wall St is going to have a MJOR problem. He plans on increasing taxes on dividends and capital gains. The economy needs a boost in the arm by leaving dividends and cap gains alone.
Actually the stock will likely get hammered with the rest of the market until the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac doom and gloom gets settled. Problem is the gov wont do it until after the election. So the prices really will go up and down on Apple, in a big range ($140s – 190s) until Nov. would be my guess. If Christmas retail season seems reasonably good, Apple should be able to make a new high in December.
MDN key word long, as in if you’re long the stock then just stay on the bumpy ride, if your in it for the quick buck, then you can buy in the 140’s and sell in the 180’s (where it will likely be before earnings are announced – then to sell off when Apple says they beat the prior expectations by 25-50% but they don’t think they will make much money in the next quarter and the idiots sell – after all, who makes any money in the calendar 4th qtr? Apple lowered expectations, the sky must be falling).
@DH
You know what – maybe the street and the rest of the country need a dose of enthusiasm and change. The whole economy is stalled because the finance industry took the short term view and screwed everyone by trying to make money through high risk loans. All that was in GW tenure and with the Republicans controlling the congress too.
The street doesn’t care – they make money whatever happens. And the banks will still make money because the gov’t is bankrolling their losses by dropping lending rates whilst allowing them to keep mortgage rates high.
When Clinton was elected the whole country breathed a collective sigh of relief because suddenly change seemed possible. Not much really happened except that people’s attitude changed and optimism in the future returned.
DH, interesting point. Which means absolutely nothing here other than “DH is a shill for the warmonger called McCain”. Apple pay a dividend? As for Capital Gains, long term capital gains are taxed as if they were “income”, short term capital gains as if they were earnings from gambling.
It was the Republicans spending money for a war (Iraq, not Afghanistan) instead of schooling, or health care, or veterans’ benefits, or … that put us where we are. And their eliminating the safety nets for all sorts of investment schemes. And …
OK, I don’t like Joe Biden either. But McCain is just another crackpot in the pocket of Big Business, a guy who can’t tell you how many homes he owns, or who we are fighting where, or what … he’s older than I am and has forgotten all the lessons he “learned” in his youth -half his life ago. He’s been double-dipping most of his life, but resents it when a young soldier asks for the health care he was promised at enlistment.
I’m a VNE veteran and I am appalled!
My apologies to the non-trolls in the forum.
@DLMeyer
Nice spin, but if your understanding of economic were learned in school, I’d be asking for a refund.
You’re an utter dolt (or a shill for the Great Panderer Obama) if you honestly believe a single dollar was “diverted” from education, health care or veterans benefits.
Honestly, it’s left wing extremists sitting on the fringe of the Democratic party that cost them elections, and this fall is shaping up to be no different.
Oh yeah… I’m a Vet too, and I find nothing more appalling than Obama and his “mana from Heaven” promises.
Sixvodkas, you should have made that seven.
I don’t believe for a second that money was ever intended to be spent for education, or health care, or veterans’ benefits. What I said was that the money spent on getting our useless youth killed in Iraq so the President’s cronies could profit from the war was what got us – those of us unfortunate enough to have to WORK for a living – in tough financial straights.
And the only real choice to Obama’s “mana from heaven” is McCains “keep the war going until there are no kids left to die or profits left to be made” plan. And, no … I am not making that up. And, no … the Democrats did not make it up. Even the fanatically right wing Fox “News” has reported him saying pretty much that. “War for a hundred years!” And, by the way, he voted against veterans’ benefits. That is On The Record! His policy statements put him to the right of the President … though I don’t think the President has any serious principles to be on the “right” OF.
You do know that McCain is on a “full disability” pension?
That he has “flip-flopped” on most of his platform from an election or two back?
That Sen. Lieberman had to correct him – publicly – at a news conference he gave in Iraq?
That he made the same mis-statements several times, later, without Joe to correct him?
I am not a lefty.
Nor a registered Democrat.
My views are just slightly Libertarian, but only slightly, not enough to really matter.
I pretty much define the center.
And the center is not happy. Not happy about this endless, useless war. Not happy about bin Laden still being alive and free, Not happy about the richest getting richer by stealing from the less-rich. <u>Not</u> Happy. McCain will have a tough sell if he continues to position himself as “Bush III”.
Question: as a fellow vet, how do you feel about our soldiers being denied medical benefits for head injuries?
As a fellow vet, how do you feel about the US having more mercenaries in the field than full-time soldiers – and at a higher pay rate?
As a vet, how do you feel about part-time soldiers doing the field work while full-time soldiers sit at home?
As a vet, have you visited a VA hospital for any sort of treatment?
I’m just curious. Obama has made no overt promises to fix any of these problems. McCain has denied that they are problems and taken steps to insure they get worse. On the record. On the record, he has made light of your service-to-country and mine. Can you accept that?
Again … apologies to the non-trolls in the audience. AAPL will continue to rise on no news and fall on good news … that is the nature of the stock. Bad news? Hardly ever happens to it.
By the way … it is the Administration and the McCain camp who define our youth as “useless” – they “think”, after all.
The general consensus of the finance sector is that Obama’s (thus far vaguely stated) economic policy will be bad news for Wall St. & the economy in general.
I’m a simple white collar employee that has made some nice $$ off AAPL. I definitely don’t earn >$250/yr but will be impacted in the short term, in a big way, if Obama is serious about his plans for Cap gains, ATM, and rollback of the Bush tax cuts.
Not to mention the socialized health care plan he’s been floating and how it will drag on the economy.
Hopefully, like Pres. Clinton before him, he’s just pandering and will not follow through with these wealth redistribution schemes (if elected).
Steev, the “finance sector” is made up of people who generally make over $100K a year – WELL over – who would be seriously impacted – whacked up side the head, torso, and butt – by any tax increase on Capital Gains. I don’t know about you, but all my AAPL profits are “paper” … at least, recently. One year, a while back, I sold my three-year-old shares for a 50% profit. Figured it would just be dropping again and I needed the money. Oops! Anyway, just how much short-term PROFIT do you earn doing your day-trading? Surely you are not day trading your AAPL!
I live in Massachusetts. We are working on a state-wide health plan – if you don’t have insurance already, you must participate. It is subsidized by the state. And it seems to be working – despite my dipping in for a two-stent operation. Folks who make money off health care – insurance folk, usually – have a lot to say about why any other routine will not work. Think of it as an IT department explaining why they can’t put Macs in the offices. Actually, the same goes for Wall Street. THEY, the big players, might actually be hurt. What do they care about you … you’re barely a PLAYER!
As for the Bush tax cuts … you make less than $250k/year and you think you see more than a dollar or two of that? You ARE a dreamer! And all those cuts are merely deferred to our (or my?) children. Tax cuts in “war time”, indeed!
DL-
I disagree on your view of how Capital Gains taxes will impact folks earning <$100K as CG has nothing to do with Income taxes. Anyone selling a house they lived in for >2yrs benefits from the current CG tax laws. Anyone holding stocks for >18 months benefits (just to give a couple of examples).
You will need to turn that AAPL paper to $$ some time. I don’t day trade but I will need to cash in and diversify, and that means CG taxes. Which under Obama could go up significantly. Esp in Ca. where it will mean close to 40-48% taxes between State and Fed. That sucks!
When I say short term I mean I’ll be hit for a few years then once I’ve diversified my taxable income will be back to plain old salary.
I will be impacted big time if the gov let the Cap Gains reduction expire. It also will have a big impact on retirees. And also if the AMT is allowed to lapse as Obama has casually mentioned.
As far as healthcare is concerned, It’s not a constitutional right, and all one needs to do is look to Britain, Mex and other countries to see poorly operated social healthcare systems. Governments do not operate efficiently. It’s not their nature. Look at Ca. schools, we keep dumping money on them and we still have a low test scores, high drop out rates.
I’m not saying that we can’t make some improvements to the healthcare system. But there needs to be balance.
So, it’s my opinion, that based on what Obama has said about how he wants to change the tax laws, Wall St. will be significantly impacted.
I do have a bone to pick with the current Exec branch, and that is that they are spending money like, haha- Democrats.
Just to clarify my position, options granted by corporations are taxed as income, where stock is CG.
So folks with options granted by their employer will be impacted by Income tax increases and AMT.
Steev, there are TWO kinds of Capital Gains – Short Term and Long Term. Short Term (held for less than a year?) are taxed more heavily than Long Term, which are/have been taxed as “Income”. Say you make $100k this year, but sell stock valued at $25k more than you bought them for at least 13 months ago (no other significant info), you would pay Income Taxes on $125k. Less than if you’d sold the same stock at the same price two months earlier. And, MUCH less than if you bought stock now and realized the same profit in eleven months. You do NOT pay taxes on the portion you paid for the stock.
No. Healthcare is NOT a Constitutional Right. Yes, we certainly DO need our health care system to be a) balanced and b) well run. We do NOT need to waste public monies on health care – which is very much not the same as saying we ought not SPEND it there. According to NPR, Obama’s proposal is to mandate coverage of children only. McCain’s apparently only covers a small number of working adults. Neither will pass unless the President has a 60% majority in each house.
To clarify, an insurance benefit is not currently taxed while stock options are taxed as added income – unless you sell them at a profit within the first year after buying them.
I think we are mostly in agreement, but you are seeing dangers in the situation that I do not. The danger I see is four or eight more years of a rising body count that, at least, will not manage to take a toll on my personal family – not that such a fact makes it any less horrid. I believe in fighting for “the American Way”, but don’t see what the current administration is doing as having the least bit to do with that.
Torture – unAmerican.
Prison without charge, trial, counsel – unAmerican.
War Profiteering – unAmerican.
Lying to Congress – OK, that’s actually business as usual.
No-bid Contracts – usual, but not up to our standards.
Etc, Etc, Etc. – not The American Way.
BTW: I’m retired. My 401ks will be taxed as “Income” and my Roth IRA as nothing at all.
DL-
Regarding Short vs. Long term CG- I know this, it’s 18 months, all my positions are long and that’s not what I’m talking about.
I’m talking about the CG tax cuts enacted in 2003 scheduled to expire 2010, increasing the capital gains tax from 15 percent to 20 percent. The Dems have often talked of raising the rate to 28 percent.
I could probably get behind some limited health care for minors.
You are mixing arguments about the war and the taxes. I’m just talking about taxes and how the Dem plans to raise them will have a negative impact on the market.
Where do you get eight more years? Things have improved immensely since the surge campaign. The body count while unfortunate is historically, amazingly low for the war and occupation.
Read your history-
Torture – sad truth is this has gone on in a limited way throughout American history. The definition just keeps changing.
Prison without charge, trial, counsel – Again this has always happened.
War Profiteering – What country do you live in? This has actually been a reason for going to war.
Lying to Congress – Congress was lock step calling on us to do something about Iraq. Even before 9/11. This is my favorite-
No-bid Contracts – always happened.
I’m not saying I agree with all or that we should let it continue based on history. But it’s been going on through many administrations, both Repub and Dem. And it won’t change with Obama.
Bottom line for me is I want lower taxes and don’t believe a successful person should be punished for being successful. This is exactly what many Dems have been pushing, Raise taxes on the high income earners and poor folks pay nothing, or get rebates.
I’m tired of the class war the Dems, Media and hollywood are trying to perpetuate.
If someone is rich, fantastic! It doesn’t mean they did it illegally or are a bad person because of it. And I don’t think they should have to give it to someone who hasn’t been as fortunate. That’s socialism and it doesn’t work.
Sorry, 18 rather than 12 months.
You neglected to mention WHICH form of CG will be taxed at a higher rate in 2010 – Long Term or Short Term. If all your positions are Long Term then a change in the Short Term rate will not change your rate.
I agree that most of those things I listed as “un-American” are actually fairly common. Just as they are repugnant. We set standards 200+years ago that we still do not live up to. Things go forward, then backward, on a semi-regular cycle. That does not make War Profiteering (for example) – a crime since the days of Lincoln (at least) – “American”, just “business as usual”. And it usually does not involve the explicit collusion of the current administration.
I’m not the only one mixing “the war” with “the economy(taxes)”. My point in mentioning both is that elections are seldom over a single issue. These are not the only two issues … TWO issues? … we have here, just the two most prominent. Health care is another. Belief in <u>Science</u> is another. It would be SO wrong to bury these other issues simply because your tax rate might go up in a single instance.
By the way, if you don’t mind, what would be your additional tax liability if the rate rose from 15% to 20%? That would be a 5% increase (an over-all 1/3rd boost) in the profit from the sale. And THAT, only if the rate rise applies to LTCG. I just worked out my new liability – an extra $160! On 80 shares at today’s price.
DL-
It applies to both Long and Short.
5% will be big for me. Thousands of dollars. I’ve accumulated a large number of shares on my meager salary. Obama and Hillary have suggested raising them higher.
Taxes are weighted highly in my voting decisions, but not the only subject.
Immigration/border law enforcement (McCain is not my winner on this)
Iraq (I’m for the candidate that doesn’t want to abandon the country early, potentially leaving a bigger mess).
Sound Energy policy (expanding Nuclear, domestic oil/gas, conservation, sensible renewable)
Sensible drug enforcement policies (none of the candidates fit)
No cow-towing to the religious right (oy)
No cow-towing to the useless Unions
Abortion, I would prefer they leave it as is and focus on issues that are important.
Strong Military
Fiscal Conservatism
Competitive Education system via vouchers
Health Care, We are already ‘taxed’ on health care because Hospitals cannot turn away patients without the means to pay. So there is some validity to putting a more regulated process in place. But It shouldn’t be universal and it still needs to allow for the market Dynamics to weed out the inefficient operators.
So you can see, no one is going to make me happy, just less unhappy.
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Waiting for a reply
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