Piper Jaffray analyst sees Apple again comfortably beating Wall Street estimates

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has reiterated his “Buy” rating and $250 price target on Apple {AAPL).

Citing NPD data for the first month of Apple’s September quarter which suggests better-than-expected sales of both Macs and iPods, Munster believes the NPD data indicates 2.7-2.9 million Macintosh units sold, which is higher than the Street’s consensus estimate of 2.65 million units; that would be year-over-year growth of 25-29% growth, compared to the Street’s expected growth of 23%. For iPod’s, Munster believes that the NPD data foreshadows units of 10.7-11.2 million, vs. the Street’s estimate of 10.8 million. That’s year-over-year iPod growth of 5-10% vs. the Street’s estimate of 6%.

Munters believes that if Apple reaches the unit sales estimates mentioned above (along with an expected 4.1 million iPhones), at a gross margin of 32%, Apple could hit earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19 on sales of $8.5 billion for its first fiscal quarter. These numbers compare to the Street’s consensus estimates of $1.11 and $8.08 billion and Apple’s previously-issued and notoriously-conservative guidance of $1.00 on sales of $7.8 billion.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Chuckles the Microsoft CEO” for the heads up.]

30 Comments

  1. so does apple drop a few per share then out of no where articles appear of apple price target being well over 200…. then stock goes up a little next day.. then it declines out of no where then some more random articles of how well apple will do. etc, and it repeats.

  2. North American markets are way down again. People are selling their good stocks to cover debts in other areas. It just bring things down more. Almost everything on Wall Street is in the red today. Let’s face it, the ‘r’ word is having its effect on us all and will continue until the US election and maybe until early next year.

    SO hold tight, Apple will be fine, eventually.

  3. One reads that Appl is going to go up to $250 so I rush to look at Appl and down down down it goes. Of course I will hold on to it but it kills me when a company is doing so well and analysts are stating this and their predictions that it will go up and the opposite happens.
    Hope this all changes when the US elections are over as cptnkirk already mentioned. I suspect he is right.

  4. Unfortunately, this stock needs a steady diet of good news just to stay where it is. But not TOO good (such as great quarterly earnings), or it will drop like a rock. This may be the first year in a decade that the stock price doesn’t appreciate. Too many naked short sellers and FUD via internet.

  5. Make no mistake about it, if the Dems get Obama elected, Wall St is going to have a MJOR problem. He plans on increasing taxes on dividends and capital gains. The economy needs a boost in the arm by leaving dividends and cap gains alone.

  6. Actually the stock will likely get hammered with the rest of the market until the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac doom and gloom gets settled. Problem is the gov wont do it until after the election. So the prices really will go up and down on Apple, in a big range ($140s – 190s) until Nov. would be my guess. If Christmas retail season seems reasonably good, Apple should be able to make a new high in December.

    MDN key word long, as in if you’re long the stock then just stay on the bumpy ride, if your in it for the quick buck, then you can buy in the 140’s and sell in the 180’s (where it will likely be before earnings are announced – then to sell off when Apple says they beat the prior expectations by 25-50% but they don’t think they will make much money in the next quarter and the idiots sell – after all, who makes any money in the calendar 4th qtr? Apple lowered expectations, the sky must be falling).

  7. @DH

    You know what – maybe the street and the rest of the country need a dose of enthusiasm and change. The whole economy is stalled because the finance industry took the short term view and screwed everyone by trying to make money through high risk loans. All that was in GW tenure and with the Republicans controlling the congress too.

    The street doesn’t care – they make money whatever happens. And the banks will still make money because the gov’t is bankrolling their losses by dropping lending rates whilst allowing them to keep mortgage rates high.

    When Clinton was elected the whole country breathed a collective sigh of relief because suddenly change seemed possible. Not much really happened except that people’s attitude changed and optimism in the future returned.

  8. DH, interesting point. Which means absolutely nothing here other than “DH is a shill for the warmonger called McCain”. Apple pay a dividend? As for Capital Gains, long term capital gains are taxed as if they were “income”, short term capital gains as if they were earnings from gambling.
    It was the Republicans spending money for a war (Iraq, not Afghanistan) instead of schooling, or health care, or veterans’ benefits, or … that put us where we are. And their eliminating the safety nets for all sorts of investment schemes. And …
    OK, I don’t like Joe Biden either. But McCain is just another crackpot in the pocket of Big Business, a guy who can’t tell you how many homes he owns, or who we are fighting where, or what … he’s older than I am and has forgotten all the lessons he “learned” in his youth -half his life ago. He’s been double-dipping most of his life, but resents it when a young soldier asks for the health care he was promised at enlistment.
    I’m a VNE veteran and I am appalled!

  9. @DLMeyer

    Nice spin, but if your understanding of economic were learned in school, I’d be asking for a refund.

    You’re an utter dolt (or a shill for the Great Panderer Obama) if you honestly believe a single dollar was “diverted” from education, health care or veterans benefits.

    Honestly, it’s left wing extremists sitting on the fringe of the Democratic party that cost them elections, and this fall is shaping up to be no different.

    Oh yeah… I’m a Vet too, and I find nothing more appalling than Obama and his “mana from Heaven” promises.

  10. Sixvodkas, you should have made that seven.
    I don’t believe for a second that money was ever intended to be spent for education, or health care, or veterans’ benefits. What I said was that the money spent on getting our useless youth killed in Iraq so the President’s cronies could profit from the war was what got us – those of us unfortunate enough to have to WORK for a living – in tough financial straights.
    And the only real choice to Obama’s “mana from heaven” is McCains “keep the war going until there are no kids left to die or profits left to be made” plan. And, no … I am not making that up. And, no … the Democrats did not make it up. Even the fanatically right wing Fox “News” has reported him saying pretty much that. “War for a hundred years!” And, by the way, he voted against veterans’ benefits. That is On The Record! His policy statements put him to the right of the President … though I don’t think the President has any serious principles to be on the “right” OF.
    You do know that McCain is on a “full disability” pension?
    That he has “flip-flopped” on most of his platform from an election or two back?
    That Sen. Lieberman had to correct him – publicly – at a news conference he gave in Iraq?
    That he made the same mis-statements several times, later, without Joe to correct him?
    I am not a lefty.
    Nor a registered Democrat.
    My views are just slightly Libertarian, but only slightly, not enough to really matter.
    I pretty much define the center.
    And the center is not happy. Not happy about this endless, useless war. Not happy about bin Laden still being alive and free, Not happy about the richest getting richer by stealing from the less-rich. <u>Not</u> Happy. McCain will have a tough sell if he continues to position himself as “Bush III”.

    Question: as a fellow vet, how do you feel about our soldiers being denied medical benefits for head injuries?
    As a fellow vet, how do you feel about the US having more mercenaries in the field than full-time soldiers – and at a higher pay rate?
    As a vet, how do you feel about part-time soldiers doing the field work while full-time soldiers sit at home?
    As a vet, have you visited a VA hospital for any sort of treatment?
    I’m just curious. Obama has made no overt promises to fix any of these problems. McCain has denied that they are problems and taken steps to insure they get worse. On the record. On the record, he has made light of your service-to-country and mine. Can you accept that?

    Again … apologies to the non-trolls in the audience. AAPL will continue to rise on no news and fall on good news … that is the nature of the stock. Bad news? Hardly ever happens to it.

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