“Fasten your seat belts,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt blogs for Fortune.
“Although Apple should report better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Monday — it almost always does — its shares could be in for a bumpy ride on Wall Street,” Elmer-DeWitt writes.
“Apple’s stock price — having bungee-jumped from $200 in late December to below $120 in mid-March and then back up to $190 in mid-May — has been drifting lower ever since, despite the high-profile launch of a new iPhone and the expectation of sharply higher earnings,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
“These days, even 18% earnings growth from Apple is unlikely to impress the Street. The company could report its best third fiscal quarter (our calendar Q2) yet and still lose market value,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. By most accounts, Q3 was a strong one for Apple. In a report to clients issued Friday morning, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster saw good news in all three of its key divisions: [Mac, iPod, iPhone].”
“But Wall Street’s antennae are finely tuned for disappointment. Although Apple just had a record-breaking, made-for-TV product launch — with people still queuing up for the iPhone 3G a week after it went on sale — none of that produced much traction in Apple’s share price. Investors seemed to concentrate instead on the fact that Apple’s iPhone activation servers melted down, that most of their stores ran out of product and that the new MobileMe suite of Web services is a mess that the company still hasn’t cleaned up,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
“Finally, there’s the matter of Apple’s guidance for its fourth quarter… how conservative? If it’s the usual 9% or 10% below expectations, it shouldn’t make much difference. Anything lower could damage the stock. And if {Apple] offers guidance that’s better than expected, who knows, the stock might actually go up,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
More in the full article here.
Uh, oh!
wow, great analyst!
“it could go up! it could go down! it could hold!”
….at least it isn’t predicted to go sideways.
Think long.
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Makes no sense, look at all the positive information: Apple has a blowout quarter selling desktop Macs. Apple increases notebook orders by 20%. Max OSX gains in market share. Apple selling iPhones by the busload… Once again analysts will focus on the minute negatives and that drives down the stock price.
Shure, 18% earnings growth is unimpressive for WallSt, when Citi Bank announces 2.5 billion loss
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AAPL is now expected to do better than WS expectations. I would hate to see what happens if they come below…
Funny, I never heard a peep from Apple fanbois decrying Microsoft’s stock slipping.
I’m with “Not That Steve”
THINK LONG.. these idiots gotta write something.. what do they know? if they were so smart they wouldnt have to write their dribble for a living. Its always good to take financial advice from these EX-SPURTS.. NOT..
I hope it goes down.. I waiting to buy more.. sell everybody..sell..drop the price..I dont care..I’m buying more..
Apple Insider post Apple’s weaknesses,
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/07/17/apples_gross_margin_may_be_biggest_swing_factor_next_week.html
Yes, fanbois, there is a more intelligent community outside the fantasy world that you inhabit.
What you’ve got is a bunch of emotional investors buying and selling on a bit of news or what they see the price of the stock doing on a minute by minute basis. Fundamentals for AAPL are strong quarter to quarter, but the market’s not being driven by those who know a stinking thing about fundamentals.
I lost my shirt on AAPL in 1st and 2nd quarters of 2008 and I shall not be bitten in the arse again with the volatile emotion-driven trading found in this particular stock.
Love the products and the company though. I’m a mac man all the way.
Their stock price has been sitting right near 175, not “drifting lower”.
Anyone who does their homework will either sit or buy.
bleu dreem,
… and next month?
… and the month after?
…. and next quarter?
Oh, Great Prophet of Proctology, what does the great orifice of Apple wisdom speak of?
Unfortunately, Apple is now a target of so called investors and their partner-in-crime anal-ysts, and they will continue to manipulate AAPL. This is Street all right, Wall Street Mafia.
They’re billions in the black, I wouldn’t worry about their stock price. I might buy some if I have some spare cash when it is low again.
Look, it is going to the same thing is always is: Apple is going to announce better than expected numbers/sales/earnings and offer conservative guidance. Analysts will pick through the numbers and find something they don’t like. The stock will go down. Oh, well…
If you own Apple stock, you have to take the long view these days. While the market has been crashing, Apple is up so far this year and has been floating around the same price for a couple months. That is pretty good given the macro conditions.
As for this article, nothing to see here. Move along…
“Unfortunately, Apple is now a target of so called investors and their partner-in-crime anal-ysts, and they will continue to manipulate AAPL. This is Street all right, Wall Street Mafia.”
Apple’s biggest mistake – going public! Steve should by back all stock, dissolve the board, and assume 100% control.
Happy now?
These are all supposedly bad things:
– Apple sells so many iPhones they run out.
– Apple sells so many iPhones and Apps that servers are crushed are under the weight.
– Apple blows away their guidance and the Street’s expectations for the quarter.
– Apple sets new records (again) for Mac sales.
– Apple continues to increase its revenue by double-digit points for the ??th straight quarter (I don’t know how many quarters it’s been, but I bet you’d have to go back to 2004 or 2005).
– Great reviews on its products, and lots of talk about a brand new platform (which suggests sustainable growth).
My God, if any other company did all that I bet their stock price would nudge upwards at the very least. The way I see it, though, even if my Apple stock goes down a little bit, it’s still beating the overall market right now which continues to tank.
Owning Apple today might not be making me money, but it’s not bleeding nearly as fast as the rest of the market. Maybe things are so bad that a 5 percent drop in stock price is fantastic performance.
The company could report its best third fiscal quarter (our calendar Q2) yet and still lose market value,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
This whole “the Street” thing is drifting into Alice in Wonderland territory. The current system/mindset must be profoundly broken in order to create results like these. It makes no sense. Doesn’t anybody on Wall Street see that???
>blue Dream wrote: Their stock price has been sitting right near 175, not “drifting lower”. [Jul 18, 08 – 01:20 pm]
Taken from MDN’s ticker at the top of the page.
Fri, Jul 18, 2008 – 01:37 PM EDT — AAPL: 166.38 (-5.43, -3.16%)
There are the reasonable Apple fans, and then there’s your type: the fanboy who blindly posts based out of emotion and fantasy.
Too bad the latter is the more vocal of the two.
Apple sells so many iPhones they run out.
Apple unprepared.
Apple sells so many iPhones and Apps that servers are crushed are under the weight.
Apple, again, unprepared.
Apple blows away their guidance and the Street’s expectations for the quarter.
Apple blows – what more can be said?
Apple sets new records (again) for Mac sales.
What records? Where are the data? No one knows! Another fantasy.
Apple continues to increase its revenue by double-digit points for the ??th straight quarter (I don’t know how many quarters it’s been, but I bet you’d have to go back to 2004 or 2005).
“I don’t know.” Hmm. that’s obvious.
Great reviews on its products, and lots of talk about a brand new platform (which suggests sustainable growth).
Sycophantic fanboi ramblings don’t count.
Summary: “Apple blows, that’s all I know.”
What kind of horsesh** is this ? It may go up, it may go down, what ? Is this the best that a so-called ” analyst ” can come up with ?
Selling out of a new product is a good sign, not a bad one.
Opening up retail stores in China, a new untapped market for Apple is a positive sign. Revenue and unit sales growth is also a wonderful sign. The fact that Apple shares rebounded as quickly as they did ,compared to the market in general, is also a good sign.
Wall Street needs to pull their heads out of their rectums. NOW !
Yawn… another ‘insightful’ analyst spewing garbage…. yawn.
Answer this analyst – for how many tech products/companies these days do you see paying customers camped out on the street for waiting to buy?
Doh. You’re about as relevant as…. [insert appropriate comment here]
I find highly amusing all the anti-Apple folks who keep going on about “Apple fanboys”. Dare I venture to suggest that we have perhaps a few “Microsoft fanboys” projecting their own illogical devotion to their company of choice onto others?
There are a lot of normal, average, reasonable people who aren’t “fanboys” of *any* side, who are choosing to buy Macs. Larger and larger numbers of them, in fact, according to recent reports. This trend is not going away anytime soon, and makes the repeated “Apple fanboy” comments come across as a bit desperate.
Just read Wu’s comments. The man is fixated on Apples profit margin. If it changes 1/2 percent the wrong way, He is for dumping the stock.
The man just DOES NOT GET IT. His “analysis” of Apple makes you think he is talking about Dell. ????????? WTF
He is looking at Apple screwing everyone to make extra pennys of profit and if they do not, …… well that is bad.
The man is a moron, or else he has a bunch of cash and wants to drive Apple stock down so he can make more. Don’t know which. 🙁
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