“Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has calculated the actual number of iPhone sales globally to be less than half a million after surveying US stores and calculating how many iPhones had been activated,” Computerworld New Zealand reports.
“It seems the issue comes down to the definition of ‘sold,'” Computerworld NZ reports.
“Apple appears to count all iPhones sold into its channel as sold, even though some have yet to be bought by end users,” Computerworld NZ reports. “Piper Jaffray estimates sales to end users at 425,000.”
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What no MDN take – you guys are letting us down..
And??
Every other mobile product manufacturer reports sales based on how many have been sold to resellers not the end user. Since AT&T;and others are simply resellers why wouldn’t they be considered sold?
Useless FUD to make the masses stand up and say HAH!
Sounds just like Microsoft, when they were describing the Zune sales
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There is NO MDN take needed here. Any idiot can count — BADLY. LOL
I did an estimate and am totally sure that Apple sold to consumers at LEAST 4,500,000 G3 iPhones. (That is 4 million). Little things like the fact that they only built 3,750,000 phones MATTERS NOT.
LOL
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” /> And I am sure that I am WAY MORE accurate than Jeffery.
PS. Who was it that last year was sure that Apple had stuffed the cell phone channels vs selling them. That was until you could not buy them anymore cause they were sold out. Ha ha ha. What nin-cow-pops.
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Just a thought.
So Gene checks a few stores, multiplies and figures? Not sure, Apple doesn’t usually inflate numbers.
If Apple shipped 1 million and all the stores were sold ut as of Sunday evening, which appears to be the case, then Apple sold 1 million phones to end users. Seems pretty simple to me.
I an quite skeptical that Gene was able to talk to all the phone companies in 22 countries that had iPhones for sale last weekend to find out how many were activated. How about in Belgium where the phones had to be sold unlocked. Who would he check with?
I think he is just doing a cya since he predicted 450,000.
Still, I’d rather not be Zuned by Apple.
I guess the difference is that the Zunes usually aren’t all bought by actual customers until there are drastic price cuts. Not going to be the case with the iPhone.
I “bought” an iPhone the other day. But since it is a direct fulfillment order from AT&T;, I haven’t activated the phone. I’m still waiting for delivery. How would that sell count?
Has anyone else order an iPhone from AT&T;and have you received it yet?
Wondering if I need to start bugging my store. I afraid they’re just selling the phones that come in, even if it’s spoken for.
They sold over 1 mil worldwide during the weekend launch. End of story.
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I CAN’T GET ONE HERE IN MY STATE! Not in one of the Apple retail outlets, and certainly not in any of the AT&T;wireless stores. They’re ALL sold out! I have no idea how many were sent into the two sales channels, but I can almost guarantee that they’ve all been purchased by someone!
QUICK NOTE: Gene Munster has been so bullish and positive on AAPL for so long, he’s been bending over backwards lately to put a negative spin on any bit of news. Just trying to appear neutral and unbiased, I guess.
isn’t this how Zunes are counted?????
The Apple Store in Las Vegas has “enough iPhones for weeks and will never run out” according to one of the managers.
I walked by the SoHo (NYC) Apple Store yesterday afternoon and was stunned to see about 100 people waiting in line outside for iPhones. The store even provided Apple umbrellas to shade them from the sun.
I’ve NEVER seen a line like that SIX DAYS after the initial release of a product.
I wonder what the sales figures will be for the first week?
Apple isn’t dumb enough to report false numbers…the consequences of that are too great. Noone is under the microscope than them. How can a Piper Jeffrey employee even know where all the channels and stores are overseas to even get accurate numbers? Maybe in the US, but not every country overseas.
How does Gene Munster back up his numbers?
No need to open iCal today to get the correct date. It’s July 17th!
Just a note to the wise.
MacPatty, while I was able to get my 3G at my local (and small) ATT store a couple days after rollout. I was just in there yesterday (It is across street from my office) And the sales guy told me that I was a good thing I got mine when I did, as he won’t be seeing any more for another month or so. They are “selling” them as you described, and indicating a delivery a few weeks out.
I don’t doubt Apple’s numbers.
Sounds just like Microsoft, when they were describing the Zune sales
The difference is that people will actually buy the iPhone.
Having said that, I believe Apple.
I can’t even get anyone to tell me if they have inventory….how did he get so much data?
if you paid for An iPhone but haven’t received it, then you count as a 1/3 sale. Gene says so in his client note.
What up guys? Have you joined the FUD producers? This is complete, unadulterated crap, regurgitating and putting a fresh spin on Munster’s original number which was ball-park, seat of the pants, barely scientific speculation at best… old numbers which have been surpassed by newer reportage published by Apple! This publication did not interview Munster in which he questioned Apple’s numbers. They are using one man’s pre-announcement speculation to challenge Apple’s concrete numbers. Anyone who has tried to buy an iphone over the last couple of days knows who is right and who is wrong!
Let’s see: how do you count my iPhone? I ordered it from AT&T;.
It has not arrived yet. AT&T;has charged my credit card so they
and Apple have their money, but I, the illustrious end-user, have
not received my phone yet. How would the Piper-guy count my
iPhone?
For the record, I believe the Apple numbers too. The AT&T;stores are running out daily too. So there ain’t much merchandise sitting idle in the channel.
As far as Apple is concerned, they ARE sold, right? I mean aside from the inevitable bad apples (win), those are done – AT&T;bought them.
This guy has NO IDEA what he’s talking about.. Ignore this hit whore..
Maybe sold in advance? Paid for but not delivered?
Headline:
Mac Daily News Joins FUD Parade!
No more clicks for you!
Idiots!
Hmmm…. funny that this piece should come out at 1:30 pm, which was the stock’s high of the day, with market makers desperate to pin the stock under 175.
If you read the story, you’ll see there are no new comments from Mr. Munster. He was never interviewed for this story, and the headline “Munster questions” iphone sales is a lie. This is exactly what the SEC should be going after, as this article has obviously been placed to keep the stock in check.
ATT stores are all sold out…but have put everyone on “Direct Fulfillment”. So if Jobs counts items shipped to ATT’s distribution system but not yet distributed, rest assured those are all sold!
Ordered my 16G black at 10 AM Eastern Time on launch day and it is still on backorder….
Piper Jaffrey = Major Asshats.
Whatever. My iPhone is f’in awesome. NO OTHER PHONE COMPARES. STFU!
They sold over a million. Steve said.
This is a bullsh*t story from Macworld, no less.
It’s based on his FIRST research note which was published before Apple’s press release. He issued a SECOND note delineating how he miscalculated. He never took issue with Apple’s count. (Unless he issued something since Monday which I may be unaware of.) See Alleyinsider.
Now would be a good time for an analyst to drive the stock down a bit, buy some stock, then reap a profit when the earnings report comes out next week. No one would do a thing like that. Would they?
Or its a “bullsh*t” story as marty Safir says above.
since at&t;is subsidizing, it does alter the scenario a bit…
I do know here in mexico
TelCel installed 3G country wide a few months ago, with the introduction, and sell out of the iPhone, since last weekend, the network as been going down all over, I received text messages today that were sent Monday!! and do not even think of getting or receiving calls from other networks!
From what I am hearing, even tho we have had a 3G network, it really wasn’t used much, until the iPhone!!
@ElderNorm
“I did an estimate and am totally sure that Apple sold to consumers at LEAST 4,500,000 G3 iPhones”
Your information is old. Apple moved to G4 and G5 iPhones a long time ago!
Apple wold have to be nuts to inflate the numbers considering the idiots constantly bashing the stock and trying to find a reason to sell. Apple knows they’d be better off selling fewer units and stating so rather than outright B.S.-ing the sales. If the phones are “sold” the there is cash for them in the books. Munster has this one wrong but, hey, you can’t say he’s a fanboy either, right?
A few notes of reality…
1) If Apple has sold the units either directly to consumers or directly to mobile network operators, they are sold. It’s that simple and it’s the same standard to which Nokia, SE, Samsung or any of the other manufacturers are held.
2) When Microsoft talks about 20 million licences shipped for Windows Mobile, it isn’t even talking about licences loaded onto actual physical devices let alone units sold.
3) When Apple claims to have sold 2.x million Macintosh systems and says that there is about n days stock in the channel (which it normally quotes during conference calls), nobody starts saying that Apple sold any less systems. The units are sold when Apple takes them out of its stock systems, ships them to a customer (either a consumer or reseller) and then issues an invoice,
What is the difference between a Macintosh and an iPhone that would necessitate an alternative treatment for the latter? Answer: NONE. Thank You. Goodnight Vienna.
“If Apple shipped 1 million and all the stores were sold ut as of Sunday evening, which appears to be the case, then Apple sold 1 million phones to end users. Seems pretty simple to me.”
Assuming you can get a container of phones from China to any country in the world overnight, you’re probably right. otherwise you’re probably wrong. The million will include those sold to end users plus those ordered from Apple to replace them. Hence it’s an inflated number compared to phones actually in the hands of end users.
“Apple isn’t dumb enough to report false numbers…the consequences of that are too great.”
No, but they will stretch the truth, telling you the number sold by Apple to it’s partners and distributors and in the process of being shipped as opposed to the number actually sold to customers.
“rest assured those are all sold!”
No, rest assured they will be sold, probably quite quickly, but not a million in the first weekend.
“Now would be a good time for an analyst to drive the stock down a bit, buy some stock, then reap a profit when the earnings report comes out next week.”
Except PJ make a market in the stock. That means they win when you buy and win when you sell. Hence for Gene, talking the stock up has the same effect on PJ’s bottom line as talking it down. What he really needs to get you to do is buy buy buy, panic sell sell sell, get greedy, buy buy buy, repeat. And he does that. MDN readers can’t praise him enough when he’s being nice to Apple.
Music album sales have been calculated this way until more sophisticated stats were avail. Shippping was the number of albums “sold”. Cause sooner or later, they’d ended up being sold.
Who cares anyway, iPhone is shaping up things to come at Apple, and that’s a good thing.
“journalism” is in such a bad shape nowadays it is amazing. first munster doesn’t question the 1 million number. his report and his guess that apple may have sold 450.000 units according to his channel checks was published monday morning BEFORE apple came out with the 1 million number. munster since then has corrected his report. and even if the one million units weren’t sold to end-users it doesn’t matter, because apple has received the money from the carrieres. getting the money = sold.
I paid in advance for one with local AT&T;since there’s no stock left , so that should be counted as sold, shouldn’t it? I guess PJ just tries to save some face here because Apple has at least doubled his estimation of 425K for the weekend, besides, I can’t recall Apple’s ever overblown its sales number.
Went to the Gateway Apple Store and there too was a line with 30+ people waiting to buy the iphone.
my AT&T;store sold out all their units last friday 180 of them and is taking orders for the direct fulfillment program with 10-20 day delivery quote. NOTE: AT&T;is not charging my credit card until my phone actually ships.
I am not sure how Piper is doing his computations. Apple is bound by the SEC to report things properly, so it is unlikely that they are either counting phones shipped to Apple stores or counting phones that have not been shipped to the carriers. OTOH, they are required to count as sold any phones that have been shipped to the carriers, because the carriers have already accepted the obligation to pay for them (i.e., been invoiced by Apple).
As for his accusation that Apple is stuffing the channel, it seems unlikely given the continuous reports of shortages. More than half of the Apple stores are reporting no stock at the end of the day. In addition, ATT is taking orders for future fulfillment, which suggests that they do not have any spare inventory as well. Most of the “word of mouth” reports from overseas are reporting similar shortages with all of the International carriers as well.
If Piper’s numbers are correct then there are approximately 500,000 phones hiding in the channel. If one assumes that half of these phones are in the US channel and that between Apple and ATT there are 2000 outlets in the United States, 250,000 phones amounts to more than 100 phones per store, which does not jibe with the availability statements that have been reported. By the same token, the iPhone is available in 21 countries, which translates into more than 10,000 iPhones in the channel per country, if one assumes that half of the phones are being sold in the non-US markets.
None of these numbers seem reasonable given the multitude of independent reports that iPhones are not to be found in the retail stores. That said, my wife was informed that the local Apple store (which a small mall outlet) had iPhones available even though the iPhone availability for that store was listed as none. I saw the same situation today when I visited the store. My wife was told that the store had received 16 iPhones on the day that she visited the store.
Umm, units activated per store, I recall reading about how the activation servers went down and people were told to bring the phones home and try activating at a later time.
This is old news, Munster has already corrected his article 3 days ago !
Munster manufactured a very similar story in January.
He spotted that there was a large difference between the number of iPhones that AT&T;registered and those that Apple claimed to have sold.
He then made a guess at how many units might be sold to be unlocked, together with a guess for how many units might be sold in Europe and then asserted that the remaining half a million units that were unaccounted for by his guesstimate must in the channel and not really sold. He claimed that they were sitting in shipping containers in Chinese docks en route to the US at some point in the future.
The story was widely reported, but later it was found that the number of units sold for unlocking was vastly higher than his guess and his claim of channel stuffing was groundless.
Now he’s repeating exactly the same story, even down to the shipping containers. He was wrong before, he’s wrong this time.
I know the store near me in Garden City NY still has a line going to the mall entrance from the parking lot.
“If Piper’s numbers are correct then there are approximately 500,000 phones hiding in the channel.”
The point is that “hiding” period may be very short. e.g. everyone sells out half a million phones over the weekend and places new orders to replace those sold. So they place replacement orders on Apple and Steve reports them as “Sales”, which from Apple’s point of view, they are (Note: this does not work for Apple stores, just external vendors, from Apple’s point of view it’s only a bookable sale from an Apple store when it goes to the customer). Were there 1 million end user sales in the weekend? Probably not. Will they become a million end user sales within a week or two? Probably but all Piper is doing pointing out is that difference. And it seems he needs to because the distinction obviously escapes almost all MDN readers.
500,000 actually sold, 500,000 more ordered as sales go through the proverbial roof.
Total one million.
Now STFU.
NOTE:
Zunes were selling for $28.99 in HMV music stores today. (fact)
Report that, you drones.
…no-one was buying.
What ever happened to the million zunes sold?
yup they were sold… Apple got paid. So what is the problem?
“yup they were sold… Apple got paid. So what is the problem?”
Only that Steve gave the impression they went through to customers. But lets face it, these days Steve doesn’t know when he’s lying and when he’s not, and objective observers know anything he says needs to be reality checked. However Mac Fanboys don’t care, they believe anything Steve says without question, and even defend demonstrably wrong statements. As they say, you can fool some of the people all of the time…
Honestly, if i had 2 or 3 millions to poor into gambling with shares, i would also go and create some FUD to lower the shares price to buy them… Next deys after, i’d sell them with few millions benefit and would find some other FUD to start the same operation again. Why stop it, as it perfectly works?
“Honestly, if i had 2 or 3 millions to poor into gambling with shares, i would also go and create some FUD to lower the shares price to buy them… “
You still don’t get it, do you? PJ make a market in Apple shares. that means when others buy or sell they make money on the transaction. Gene couldn’t care less whether Apple goes up or down, just that people keep selling and buying.
This is also how the music industry works
The number of CDs moved to the stores is how many sales they have, not necessarily how many have been bought the by the customer
tell us again like we care munster.
Go Apple!
there is a 50 people line right now at the Danbury, CT store they were sold out and I see people talking on their Nextel, Verizon and Blackberries… This is awesome!!!
MDN word: nature
it’s human nature to buy apple
” This is awesome!!!”
There’s only lines because Apple can’t execute properly. All major phone vendors have outsold Apple this week, yet didn’t need lines to do so. Quietly and efficiently they just sold product.