“Steve Jobs is still CEO of Apple, and he’s still alive, and unofficially Dictator for Life. But I am definitely not alone and hardly an original thinker among many who are pondering about how long he might be able to remain in an active role at the company,” Jason Perlow writes for ZDNet.
“I think some consideration should be taken as to whether or not Apple has formed an effective transition strategy, and has adequately prepared for the worst case scenario,” Perlow writes. “What does Apple look like without Jobs?”
Perlow writes, “Companies that are centered around iconic founders and which cannot form effective long-term transition and mission strategies after they depart are doomed to suffer serious consequences. Case in point — from 1985 to 1987, Jobs lived out his exile at NeXT and Pixar, only to return as the company’s savior after over a decade of being completely rudderless and on the brink of oblivion… If Jobs were to abdicate, would Apple indeed become rudderless again? Or has he installed a church of his own followers that would continue on in the same tradition and ideology?”
Perlow writes, “Tim Cook, a former career IBMer, briefly filled the role of CEO when Jobs had his cancer treatment in 2004, but whether he has the institutional vision to run the company long term should Jobs have to leave Apple is a question only Jobs can answer.”
Full article here.
The presence of SJ is important. However, he’s already established and set into motion the global growth of a brand new platform. Though still in its infancy, the future growth and success of this platform (and thus the health of the company) is virtually assured simply by the strength of the platform, the likely course of its trajectory, and the well-documented halo effect that will accompany it. If SJ was to step down and if investors sold the stock wildly upon such an announcement, it would become vastly undervalued due to the fundamental growth story which is still unfolding and which will result in higher and higher eps, market share, etc. for several years to come.
1985-1997
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I think the worst case is this: Tim Cook, Jon Ives and Phil Schiller provide a transitional team that covers all the bases — operations, products and marketing. These guys have been with Steve Jobs for years and, in the short term, could easily sustain the forward momentum.
The bigger question is the long term. And there probably isn’t an answer, since there is only one other guy — Bill Gates — who has been as important to personal computing in the last 30 years. They are not replaceable, period.
Bill Gates jnr could run Apple in his spare time taken off from his new interest in drugs.
“I think the worst case is this: Tim Cook, Jon Ives”
Note: There is only ONE Jon Ive.
Well, look at IKEA. Ingvar Kamprad formed it 1943 and he is currently 82 years old. They are doing kind of alright…
Why should this be different? There is no need to publicly form a transition strategy. Especially when considering that the market would take it as a very bad sign.
At the end of the full article, the author wrote:
“And while it pains me to say it, despite all Jobs has meant for the company in terms of its establishing market vision and external sex appeal — his unique brand of slick hucksterism that comprises its current success formula, leaving these traditions behind may be the only way Apple will ever realize the maximum of its true potential.”
Ugh. If by “true potential”, the author means wasteland of cookbook corporate stupidity, then sure. The world does not need a Microsoft/Dell hybrid.
Looks like Zune Tang is now Gnat Nuze. Anagram anyone.
The big difference between 1985 and whenever Jobs steps down is that next time when he leaves, he’ll have a lot to do with the planning for the leadership of the future. In 1985, he’d been neutered, and had no say in how things would be done in the coming years. This is a very important difference.
Steve Jobs is not stupid. I’m confident that he’s making his methods reproducible and is training his team. Outside the public view, if he hasn’t done it already, he might even “retire on the job” for a bit to see how they do.
Campy Tat or Catty Amp?
Zune Tang is his own man, and a brave one too, battling the ignorance day by day.
Why the hell does the spellchecker underline Zune on this POS MAC I happen to be using, hasn’t MAC heard of the fabulous Zune or are they just too scared to admit it.
They should have me succeed him. Then the iPhone would get a universal landscape keyboard and copy & paste as R2’s first order of business.
I looked at Jobs during his most recent keynote and saw a healthy, lean human being taking good care of himself. Sure, from the perspective of a nation that is 50%+ obese, I can see the perception of ‘sickly thin’ being applied to him. But Jobs is much smarter than average fat american. He brushed with deadly cancer. Has anyone thought that he might have gone on restricted calorie diet (google for it if you do not know what I’m talking about). It claims anticancer benefits as well as induction of longevity. Get it?! Jobs will not only stay healthy, but he will stay healthy LONGER. Hopefully at the helm of Apple Inc well past my retirement in 20 years.
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Re: Gnat Nuze
Actually that appears to be a cross between a palindrome and an anagram. A true palindrome would give you “Gnat Enuz”.
This is a FUD article attempting to drive the stock down. these guys just won’t give up.
More blather. Should have a Think Before You ClickTM disclaimer.
It is going to be very hard to replace him, and not just because hi is a great visionary, but also because who ever get his position, the rest of the guys that thinks they deserves to be the CEO are going to split apple or leave.
“…from 1985 to 1987 (sic, should read 1997), Jobs lived out his exile at NeXT and Pixar, only to return as the company’s savior after over a decade of being completely rudderless and on the brink of oblivion…”
The numbers don’t back this up (http://www.jeremyreimer.com/total_share.html). When SJ left Apple in 1987 they had 6% market share which increased to a peak of 12% while he was not at Apple in 1992). It was more that MS caught up than Apple did something wrong.
If SJ was hit by a bus tomorrow of course Apple shares would suffer, but Apple the company is not showing any signs of problems and MS is not showing any signs of improving.
Returning to 12% market share without SJ would be fine with me, but 20% with him is even better.
Five random iPhone boxes contain golden coupons entitling the bearer and one guest a tour of Apple with reclusive genius Steve Jobs…
Ron Johnson. If you don’t know who he is, look him up. He is the heir apparent to Apple’s throne.
The real issue is not whether someone could “run the company”, but whether someone could have the same visionary ideas that Jobs has. I doubt that it is solely Jobs who has developed Apple’s strategy, but he certainly controls the final product approval and direction.
The real fear is that Apple becomes staid and fails to innovate once Jobs departs. Any new CEO must have “futurethink” so that Apple can continue to be the leader in easy-to-use electronics.
I think Jobs has set that mindset in place at Apple. You couldn’t develop visionary products like the iPod and iPhone without everyone thinking along the same terms. The new CEO simply needs to be able to carry on that mindset.
“Five random iPhone boxes contain golden coupons entitling the bearer and one guest a tour of Apple with reclusive genius Steve Jobs…”
LOL
Actually, Apple should do that. It would sell millions of iPhones.
Ron Johnson, not whilst SJ is still alive, he said you know when a company is dying when they put the salesman in charge – he was referring to MS and Steve Balmer.
IKEA and Apple are very very different.
First of all, no one associated Ikea’s founder with the company, Ikea’s ideas don’t come from its founder, it comes from the designers. The public face of IKEA is not its founder.
Scott Forestall.
Since M$ picked a large oaf-ish pink skinned guy…I gues Apple has no choice but to go with Count Chocula.
what? steve isn’t immortal!… arrr I think Apple will be okay for a period post steve, but will never be as vibrant
Dictators for life don’t spend too much time making people strong enough to replace them. They usually spend their time figuring out how to drive them off or over them killed. They generally don’t give much thought to how things will be when they are dead and gone. They truly don’t care.
In fact Steve’s psychological makeup would probably see the second plunge of Apple as vindication of his genius, that he was truly the sole reason for it’s success or failure.
Steve Jobs will be at Apple for a long time. And as long as he is CEO of Apple, it will appear that Apple will not be able to survive without Steve Jobs, because that’s what Steve Jobs wants. He wants to be irreplaceable in the public eye. So even if there is a clear transition plan in place, such a plan will not be made public until it is needed.
Steve Jobs will keep such planning a mystery and he will be Apple CEO for as long as he want to be.
Apple when Jobs left and Apple now are like Apples and Oranges. The basic building blocks at the Company are a lot better now than when Steve left. When Job’s left they were just beginning to ponder the changes necessary to move to a modern OS.
I’m not sure you get OS X if Steve had stayed. The foundation that is OS X I’m sure can run at least another decade. The roadmap at Apple is pretty well defined and goes out a very long time into the future.
ZzzNet.
More Stock Manipulation… for the rest of us…
Yea Yea Yea – All that is very interesting
But, have to wonder if ANYone is giving:
“… some consideration … as to whether or not MICROSOFT has formed an effective transition strategy, and has adequately prepared for the worst case scenario …”
BC
So much is down to perception. If Steve continues to allow other key people to take parts of Keynotes for example, bringing them forward and backing himself off, it shouldn’t be too much of a shock if he leaves in the future.
But I personally hope he continues for a long time to come
“If Steve continues to allow other key people to take parts of Keynotes for example, bringing them forward and backing himself off, it shouldn’t be too much of a shock if he leaves in the future.”
If you say so, lets see what happens to the stock price at the first keynote where Steve, with no prior notice as is the Apple way, doesn’t appear.
Wow, the armchair psychoanalysis is pretty thick in here.
The fact is, Steve Jobs has done a hell of a job of recruiting executive talent at Apple. I’ve met quite a few of Apple’s Senior VPs at one time or another, and if steve got hit by a bus, they’d do a fine job of running the company. They wouldn’t have his panache, but they’d keep on making world-class products.
-jcr
</b>”Would Jonathan Ive draw a complete blank on how to develop new designs?”</b>
Perhaps. He may actually design something that fails utterly and completely like previous apple flops including Cube, hockey puck Mouse, 20th Anniversary Macintosh, Newton, and, my favorite, Lisa.
“Would Tim Cook forget how to manage inventory?”
Maybe not, but he may forget to publish monthly MBA, iMac, and Mac Pro sales statistics for 2008. He could be getting senile.
“Would Phil Schiller start advertising like Microsoft?”
I don’t know – maybe. He may even do worse.
“Would Apple’s engineers and software developers be at a complete loss as to what to do next?”
Quite possible. These technological grease monkeys and widget wielders may be lost without Steve Jobs’ gawd-like insight and direction.
“Apple desperately needs Jobs like a blazing forest fire needs a match.”
Watch the stock go into free fall should Jobs fail to give the keynote address, much less show his face, at WWDC or Macworld Expo.
<b>Daniel Eran Dilger (aka Professional Fanboi)
Has anyone else noticed the mannerisms and body language of the dude who gives the iPhone details(don’t even know his name). This guy has studied Jobs to a tee and has the composure and is the next generation agewise. He needs to work on his personality and expressions, yet fits the CEO image down the road. Cook, Schiller, and Ives are super important at making the vision happen and should stay where they are and let this guy be the next spokesman/CEO in the future. That dudes personality does need work, though. iCal this and bring it back later when they hand him the ball. You heard it here first.
Funny how no one is worried about Steve Ballmer’s health.
“They wouldn’t have his panache, but they’d keep on making world-class products.”
And that’s the problem. Apple is 90% Steve’s BS and 10% substance. All the great executives in the world won’t be able to sell a sow’s ear as a silk purse the way Steve can.
“Funny how no one is worried about Steve Ballmer’s health.”
For exactly the reason put forward. Microsoft is not a one man show.