Gartner: Microsoft’s Windows collapsing under its own weight

“Microsoft’s Windows juggernaut is collapsing as it tries to support 20 years of applications and becomes more complicated by the minute. Meanwhile, Windows has outgrown hardware and customers are pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7. If Windows is going to remain relevant it will need radical changes,” Larry Dignan blogs for ZDNet.

“That sobering outlook comes courtesy of Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald. Half of a full room of IT managers and executives raised their hands when asked whether Microsoft needed to radically change its approach to Windows,” Dignan reports.

“So what does Microsoft need to do? For starters, Windows should create versions for specific uses. These modules would be able to swapped out depending on the customer,” Dignan reports.

A few key redesign ideas from Silver and MacDonald:
• Windows should be able to be tailored to specific applications
• Better security
• Make migration to new versions easier
• Simplify licensing to focus on specific devices

Dignan reports, “The bottom line for Gartner is that Windows needs to be replaced, lock-in needs to end and product schedules need to be more predictable. Windows should also be more manageable.”

“Will Windows 7 become this adaptive thing that Gartner describes? Probably not. Gartner argues that Microsoft should use virtualization to solve the backward compatibility issue plaguing Windows,” Dignan writes. “Will Windows 7 jettison its current kernel for multiple versions? Not likely.”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Brawndo Drinker” for the heads up.]

80 Comments

  1. Are they suggesting versions that can work with each other or that can’t work with each other? How many? How specific? In Microsoft’s hands this idea could go very very wrong.

    Apple has two versions of OS X on the market: Mac OS X and iPhone OS X. They seem to play together nicely.

  2. “Should create versions for specific users?” Doesn’t that sound a little suspiciously like the “Vista Home Basic/Home Premium/Enterprise/Ultimate/Ad-Free/S&M;Edition” fiasco?

    Also, how is this outlook “sobering” at all?
    The “key redesign ideas” look exactly like what EVERYONE has been saying about Vista for months, if not XP for years.

  3. Notice the request for different versions of Windows comes from IT Managers. This just goes to show that today’s IT Managers are nothing but “I know Windows therefore I know everything about computers” people. They’re as useless in today’s and tomorrow’s technology world as the Atari 2600 is for serious, future gaming.

  4. “So what does Microsoft need to do? For starters, Windows should create versions for specific uses. These modules would be able to swapped out depending on the customer,” Dignan reports.

    Yeah Balmer, ask Heinz how to do it.

  5. Mac OS X comes in two flavors: Client and Server. The variations which power the iPhone/iPod aren’t for sale separately, but are nevertheless variations tailored to the hardware they’re on.

    So the different flavors of OS X seem to fit point 1 in the list above (tailored to specific applications) – “applications” in this case I think meaning “purposes”, rather than programs.

    Microsoft’s current confusing mix of Vista flavors is more of a marketing/antitrust-avoiding strategy, and not necessarily reflective of the purposes they’re used for, or the needs of the hardware or people using it.

  6. Splitting windows into more variants will be even more confusing.

    Apple have one client and one server OS for computers. That’s how it should be.

    M$ need to start from scratch like Apple did. Build the compatibility where it is needed.

    Of course they can’t do that. And that is why they are screwed.

  7. It’s all that legacy support going all the way back to DOS and Windows 3. Microsoft really should have done what Apple did with the transition to OS X: Make an entirely modern Operating System, with legacy support as an optional feature that can eventually be chopped off.

    I really wish Windows was better. I would still use Mac, but I can’t help but to feel bad for all those Windows sufferers.

  8. Windows is sold in many confusing versions. All share the same basic faults. So the answer is to sell it in even more confusing versions. Yep that should solve the problem. God forbid the day that IT managers actually run the World rather than just think they do.

  9. The really cool thing about OS X 10.0 etc., was that Apple was able to keep OS 9 for those who needed/wanted it and create a new operating system that we know today. Now OS 9 really isn’t needed anymore.

    Microsoft will need to do the same. In other words create a new operating system (maybe based on Unix:) and have the legacy code added on, (I thought they might have already done this with Virtual PC) for a few years until the new code is widely used. There you go Redmond, start your copy machines.

  10. If anyone really believes that the listed items are going to improve Windows OS then they’re just kidding themselves. The very first thing that Windows needs to actually begin “radically” improving is to not be the default OS for the planet – really. In case anyone has lost track, this is capitalism folks, not technocracy, (well, actually it is, and that’s precisely Window’s problem). It’s just the way that it works, and that’s the primary reason, plain and simple, why Windows doesn’t really work now, nor will it ever, in any variation of its current form factor.

    Window’s missing ingredient is competition – period. Without that nothing is really going to change for Windows users – bottom line. Oddly for Windows, it will first have to become much less ubiquitous before it can really even improve – much less “radically” change. Hidden in the title of this MDN post is the actual key to improving Windows.

    I still dream of living in a world where three or more OSes actually compete, and with a tipable market share between the three of them – You can bet all of our collective behind’s that we’d see technological innovation unlike anything the human race has here-to-fore been accustomed to. But that’s just a dream.

  11. If history is any judge, Microsoft will do exactly what these guys want. Microsoft’s history is to copy whatever Apple did last, so …

    Windows 7 will be a whole new modular OS built on top of an open source BSD kernel. This will help them to work better with all the Open Source guys they have to cosy up to in the near future, and (finally) give them cred in the security arena.

    Then they only have to scrap DirectX and replace it with OpenGL and you have something that might actually work.

  12. @Mr. OS X
    @Gabriel

    Oops. You’re right of course. Mac OS X and OS X Server, which run on the big hardware, and the other OS X (does it have an official name) which runs on the small hardware. Desktop/laptop—same version. 32bit/64bit—same version. The big hardware versions and the small hardware version have so much in common they mesh very nicely. Is this what Silver and MacDonald mean? Windows already has more versions than this to much less effect.

  13. I can’t help but to feel bad for all those Windows sufferers. —UltraVisitor

    That’s very charitable of you (seriously). As far as I’m concerned, people who are forced to use Windows at their jobs have a good excuse. Everybody else is basically getting what they deserve for being ignorant consumers. It’s not like there’s an out-and-out conspiracy to conceal the fact that the Macintosh is a better computer.

  14. I still use Photoshop running on OS 9 classic because I didn’t want to cut off an arm and a leg to pay Adobe again for the OS X version. Really, OS 9 had issues, but was lightning fast considering the hardware that it was running on.

  15. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. There’s nothing wrong with Windows. In fact it’s magnificent and only getting better. And if by “collapsing under its own weight” you morons mean “maturing” then you might have something.

    Microsoft has ushered in so many useful and welcome innovations through Windows in the past 20 years we should all be grateful—most of all Apple. Where do you MAC lemmings think the copycats in Cupertino get their ideas? Let Apple seal their doom with Zen concepts like ‘adding by subtracting’. As far as Windows goes I really think Microsoft should continue to ‘add by adding’.

    Your potential. Our passion.™

  16. Yes. True. I feel the same way.
    But we’re in the 21st century now and progress is progress.

    I just bought Ps CS3 and I just want you to know that I never see the progress bar when I apply a filter.
    It is much more expensive, but so is a new car.

    As for Micros**t, they fail because they just have no taste. And I mean that not in a small way, but in a big way.

  17. It’s all that legacy support going all the way back to DOS and Windows 3. Microsoft really should have done what Apple did with the transition to OS X: Make an entirely modern Operating System, with legacy support as an optional feature that can eventually be chopped off.

    Remember, since the PC was introduced, Apple has made two major legacy breaks (Apple II to Mac, Classic to OS X) and two lesser but OS-significant breaks (68K to PowerPC, PPC to Intel).

    MS in that same timeframe has made NONE. Windows today is nothing more than 20+ years of barnacles on a creaky DOS hull.

  18. Also, Blue Dream, consider smart filters, smart objects, layer comps, super, super tight integration with the other apps . . . it’s worth upgrading, and unless I’m mistaken, all you need to get upgrade pricing is any version of Photoshop (at least that used to be the policy). I don’t know what you do, but it might make your life a lot easier. Loathe as I am to shill for Adobe nothing else really compares.

  19. I had a choice.

    Between insecure (Windows) and secure (OSX).

    Between cobbled together (Windows) and well integrated (OSX).

    Between ugliness (Windows) and beauty (OSX).

    Between good enough (Windows) and excellence (OSX).

    Between going with the crowd (Windows) my own path (OSX).

    Between pain (Windows) and pleasure (OSX).

    Between clumsiness (Windows) and grace (OSX).

    Between an insidious destructive monopoly (Micros**t) and a company on top of its game (Apple).

    Instead of letting the herd mentality dictate my buying decision I let common sense do the talking. I run my own business.
    Without Micros**t.

    That pathetic sod who names himself after a bad iPod copy is a great example of how people think once they have ceded their own individuality to a monolithic empire. Poor bastard.

  20. @Zune Tang®
    You’re as goofy as a Hammerhead shark. Your eyeballs are pointed in two different directions and you don’t even know it. They keep trying to improve this pigs ear of a program (Microsoft) and it is still a pigs ear. Your registered name should be Hot Brown Butt Mud for the crap you sling around here.

  21. Please lay off Zuney! He’s a friendly neighborhood troll.

    I guess MS could only fool people for so long, eh? I’m glad to see their down fall in my lifetime-think of the possibilities if the playing field were truly even again. Someday in retrospect, the time they spent at the top will seem like a blip.

  22. Windows is so bloated and carries so much legacy code that the “great idea” from Gartner is to have multiple versions of Windows so users could pick only the modules they want. This flies in the face of Microsoft’s plan, which is to tie everything to the OS so that users don’t have a choice in which app to use.

    Of course, this strategy also presumes that users could easily differentiate between versions of Windows. Sure didn’t happen with Vista.

    Microsoft wouldn’t need multiple versions of Windows if it would just cut off legacy code and accept that some corporations may not upgrade right away due to old legacy apps. Those corporations may just get inspired to in turn update their 15 year old apps and move into the 21st Century, which would actually push them along to new versions of Windows.

    Thank goodness Microsoft is too stupid (and Ballmer is too focused on immediate sales) to figure that out.

  23. What’s laughably ironic is if the article is to be believed, and the IT managers in the room are serious, M$ is already giving them what they want with Vista and yet they still complain, even though most of them aren’t even using it or haven’t even tried it.

    For example, these IT managers ostensibly want to do away with Windows venerable legacy compatibility all the way back to 16-bit applications. Great idea. Would make everyone’s life easier, including M$. Well, Vista does just that…and so they’ve not adopted it because they’d have to recode all those thousands of custom and legacy applications that don’t have correct privilege elevation rights. Hell, I work at a company where they have a 12-year old database system running on 11-year old hardware and management refuses to invest in software made this decade. Replicate that problem millions of times in corporate America and the cries for abandoning legacy support fall flat. This is one area where Apple really, really shines, though admittedly, they had less to lose by breaking off pre-OSX applications and hardware vis a vis M$.

    Vista also breaks with an entirely new and eminently more secure driver model (drivers completely separated from the kernel now), and yet IT managers complain that legacy hardware (printers, scanners, cameras, old servers, et al) don’t work on Vista because there are no drivers for old gear that comply with the new model. IT managers want it both ways and it’s just not going to happen, especially since Windows 7 based on the MinWin kernel is just continued refinement of Vista.

    About the only thing they said that makes sense is that M$ really needs to fix its licensing model…it’s just crazy (and SA can be sometimes punitive), though not the worst.

    “Then they only have to scrap DirectX and replace it with OpenGL and you have something that might actually work.”

    Um, dude, DirectX is far, far more capable and advanced than OpenGL. It’s not even close.

  24. Windows 7 is basically going to be Windows XP SP3. Based on continued sales of Windows XP, that’s what Microsoft customers want. 7-year-old technology, except by then, it will be 10-year-old technology.

  25. In other news, tonight on American Idol: Idol Gives Back, the dozen or so onstage volunteers are all using MacBook Pros that are easily visible in every camera shot. One of the sponsors on the giant graphics board is  iTunes. Nice. You may hate the show but this charity event is an admirable effort with some excellent Mac exposure.

  26. Zune Tang is a Mac nut making fun of Windows apologists.

    That most of you don’t recognize his satire is a testament to the massive switch to Mac that is happening out there making so many newly created MDN fans.

    To all of you newcomers – making fun of Windows fanbois by rabidly going through all of Microsoft’s talking points while making every cliched mistake about ‘MACs’ is really quite funny.

    Having a rabid Windows Fanboi agree with Zune Tang is just a bonus.

  27. I’ve often wondered how many people purchased a Windows based PC, became frustrated with it, and decided that computers were ” not for them “. Imagine how many PCs sit in attics and garages unused or used as heavy paperweights. Can you also imagine how much worse Windows would be if they didn’t have some competition from Apple ?

  28. @ Bluestreak

    Not that you’ll ever need or use it, but this is how you log in as Admin under Vista:

    My Computer (right click) –> Manage –> Users and Groups –> Users –> Administrator –> Properties.

    Enable the account.

    You’re done.

    This is hardly a secret amongst IT people…unless, of course they’re trying to use it like XP (and most are, foolishly).

  29. To ron:
    And yet this “lib” actually likes the Fox News mobile version on my iPhone. Go figure. (The video feature is pretty cool.)

    ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  30. re: If history is any judge, Microsoft will do exactly what these guys want. Microsoft’s history is to copy whatever Apple did last, so …

    Windows 7 will be a whole new modular OS built on top of an open source BSD kernel. This will help them to work better with all the Open Source guys they have to cosy up to in the near future, and (finally) give them cred in the security arena.

    Then they only have to scrap DirectX and replace it with OpenGL and you have something that might actually work.

    This will never happen.

    Why?

    Because Microsoft HAS to support every piece of hardware ever created within the last 15 years.

    And yes, there are drivers in Vista for FLOPPY DISK DRIVES!

  31. @DogGone

    Apple didn’t start from scratch, Apple aquired NeXT which had started from scratch almost 10 years earlier. And it still took Apple half a decade to make Mac OS X really stable.

    Microsoft has bumpy road to drive. Currently the customers have that, but many of them don’t seem to care.

  32. Proof positive that these idiots have no idea what they’re talking about:

    Silver’s recommendation: Go with Vista but on an attrition basis. As XP PCs die, replace them with Vista PCs.

    Do you know any enterprise that does this, support two versions of their mission-critical operating system at the same time? That would be a retarded decision.

    ——RM

  33. MS wants to buy Yahoo so Ballmer can get the focus off Windows’ problems and give himself 5-10 years for excuses for more Windows delays and problems.

    As long as MS convinces us to delay and wait for the next version which will fix all the bugs they have a hope of retaining their existing business model.

    If MS just add to existing Windows it will just creak and break more. If they rewrite Windows then enterprise will hate them. If they go virtualised then a move to the Mac makes more sense. If they split Windows per machine task then consumers will become more confused. If they Zune the PC, making it more proprietary then their partners will desert them and the DOJ will come knocking.

    SJ had a similar issue with Apple II and later MacOS 9. He had 2-3 years of hatred while people could not run their old apps, had to buy new hardware and complained. But it was the right decision in the end.

    MS needs to either:
    • create a totally new and incompatible OS, with old Windows running virtually for 2-5 years (like PS2/PS3 chip emulation)
    • create a totally new and incompatible OS lines, continuing to sell XP/Vista for old hardware (like GameBoy/Wii)

    Apple had to buy in the technology to go this from NeXT. MS has the virtualisation smarts, but I doubt MS will have the foresight to be able to build a new OS from the ground up. MacOS X has now become too large to copy from scratch.

  34. As far as I’m concerned, people who are forced to use Windows at their jobs have a good excuse.

    Actually, they don’t!

    The abdication of ICT strategy to a quasi-priesthood like most IT functions is a sign of a dysfunctional client/supplier relationship between the company generally and the IT service provider, whether that provider is internal, external or outsourced. IT should be answerable to the business, given that IT is a cost centre that simply sucks up money that is generated by the profit centres.

    It is way too easy for people in small companies to sit back and let the VP of Finance/Financial Controller/whatever take control of IT and then complain that either a) progress on IT is too slow or b) IT doesn’t do what they want. And then you wake up ten years later and find that the guy who is now your CFO has laid down a blueprint that has led to comprehensive lock-in to the Microsoft monoculture.

    In plain English, if you’re prepared to sit back and just let Information and Communications technology be provided to you without you questioning whether it is appropriate for your needs, you as culpable as a private consumer who doesn’t do any research because, in a successful set-up, the customer (i.e. the user community) asks questions and moulds the ICT to its needs.

  35. @IT Guy

    And on the Mac all you have to do is go:

    Apple Menu –> Log out

    Then you log back in as Admin. That’s it! Pretty bloody simple. If you like things even easier, you can do it in one step with command + shift + Q. That may not be revelation to you, but this is a perfect example of how OS X is a bout a kajillion times simpler on every level than Windows, and yet at the same time fundamentally so much more solid, robust, and secure.

  36. @C1: You preach it girl!

    @LordRobin: Actually, what you say is exactly how enterprise eases into new versions of Windows OS, they wait for everybody else to “debug” it, and as they order new machines they begin to order them with the latest MS OS. I’ve heard more than several IT managers state up front that they will start incorporating all new versions of Windows about one year after initial release – and that’s just when they start. It can take another year or more before an entire organization has switched completely over.

  37. Mr. Peabody…

    Your comment about how new versions of Windows infect their way into corporates is relatively true, however – for some companies with obscure custom application portfolios – the testing and approval process can be a nightmare, especially when MSFT changes the driver model or the application developer changes how the registry works for a particular app.

    For example, I know of one company that is so infested with oil/natural resource propellor-heads that many of them have written their own apps to make their lives easier (e.g. an app that predicts how waxy deposits build up on the inside of a pipe dependant on length, angle and the chemical composition of the crude oil).

  38. @MCCFR – Well put. Non-Windows/MS users are so often culturized that we forget that the real fanaticism, the real cult, is the culture of domination, and in this case it’s clearly corporate, it’s global, and it’s very real. And anyone or any group that does not conform is immediately labeled, no branded, with the labels and categories that actually apply to itself. I believe we often refer to this modus as “disinformation”.

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