Analyst reiterates: Apple will sell 45 million iPhones in 2009

“Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster took a lot of heat back in June 2007 when he predicted, three weeks before Apple even began selling the iPhone, that the company would be shipping them at the rate of 45 million a year by 2009,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt blogs for Fortune.

“But Munster is sticking to his guns, and on Monday released a detailed report to clients in which he lays out the steps by which he expects Apple (AAPL) to hit his target — quadrupling 2008 sales,” Elmer-DeWitt writes.

• By introducing a 3G iPhone within the next 3 to 6 months
• By offering a family of 2 to 3 iPhones — including lower-priced models selling for $200 to $300 — by Jan 2009 at the latest
• By entering new countries, effectively doubling the addressable market every year for the next two years.
• By adding new features, such as games (Tiger Woods Golf, played by swinging the iPhone?) and remote purchases (Starbucks lattes without the wait?) starting in June.

Much more in the full article here.

24 Comments

  1. If I had to guess. I’d say the iPhone will follow a buying curve similar in shape to that of the iPod. But whatever inflates the stock price for a quick sell at $270 works for me! ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  2. The single provider model limits iPhone penetration. By buying an unlocked iPhone, you lose one of it’s biggest and best features: Visual Voice Mail.

    Although, by limiting distribution, Apple doesn’t get stuck being seen as unable to keep up with demand.

    That said, Apple should release unlocked iPhones. And I want one. And I don’t want to have to jailbreak it in order to use it.

    I use T-Mobile and would prefer to stick with T-Mobile, since everyone in my family uses it and we all get free calls to each other as a result.

  3. Silverhawk…

    It’s only 4.5% of the current market for mobile phones and only 4.8% of the combined population of the US, Japan and European Union.

    On that basis, 45 million seems perfectly achievable to me although my personal opinion is that it will take another year (to 2010) for Apple to reach that level.

    90 million phones on an active contract will deliver around $6 billion (90 million by $6/month by 12) in network operator commissions to Apple every year: commissions that are almost 100% pure profit – call it 95% for arguments sake.

    In other words, by 2010, Apple’s phone business will be worth than the whole business is worth as we speak. Makes you think, doesn’t it?

  4. @MCCFR
    There is no doubt that there is room to grow domestically and abroad. However, with free phones out in abundance, you won’t get the majority to buy $300 to $400 iPhones, especially when the “choice” is solely AT & T. If Apple comes out with a CMDA phone for Japan they should make a deal with AT&T;to sell it to Verizon or Sprint. Cut the revenue stream so AT&T;can keep more and make up the difference with Sprint. This could all change as more apps come to the iPhone. It’s anybody’s guess.

  5. Apple is obligated to sell iPhone only with ATT through, what, 2010? Who’s to say that they can’t produce an iPhone Sliver, minus visual voice mail, that sells unlocked from any carrier? Does ATT have the rights to the complete franchise or the original model and its direct variations?

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.