Analysts expect big iPod gains from Apple in holiday quarter

Apple’s iPod, with Q4 07 sales of 10.2 million units, “was taking a breather before the current fiscal first quarter, when iPod sales traditionally dominate due to end-of-the year holiday shopping,” Rex Crum reports for MarketWatch.

MacDailyNews Note: iPod sales achieved 17% growth over the year-ago quarter’s 8.729 million iPod units. In Q1 06, Apple sold 21.066 million iPods.

Crum continues, “‘Typically, the September quarter is a back-to-school quarter driven by Macs, while the December quarter is a consumer quarter driven by iPods,’ said Shaw Wu of American Technology Research. Wu holds a buy rating and $210 price target on Apple’s stock.”

“Wu also estimates that Apple will post iPod sales of 24 million units during the December quarter, and that forecast is only slightly less than the approximately 25 million iPod average forecast from analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Such a figure would represent a 19% increase over the 21 million iPods Apple sold in its first quarter a year ago,” Crum reports.

“That sentiment was echoed by analysts such as Ingrid Ebeling, of JMP Securities. According to Ebeling, the new iPod touch — which is basically an iPhone without the cellphone capability — is having a strong impact on iPod sales,” Crum reports. “Ebeling estimates that the final quarter of the year could account for as much as 45% of iPod sales for all of 2007 and that Apple could sell 29 million iPods by the end of December.”

Crum reports, “Keith Bachman, of BMO Securities, [believes] that September’s iPod figures don’t represent the traditional iPod sales rate, and that his 24 million forecast ‘is a very achievable estimate.'”

Full article here.

20 Comments

  1. you know apple has one main problem in any of it sales.. In the states I dont know what it is like but if you are outside of the states in places like Australia or New Zealand people scream out for ipods and macs and the like from Apple but people buy other brands in the end cause the suppliers can’t get the stock It is nuts. If they ramped up their supplies to some other countires they could be selling alot more stock but allas it has been this way for years.

  2. Are the analysts including a little thing called “Leopard” into their forecasts? Probably not.

    My wife has already said she wants to get me a new iPod for Christmas, so that’s only 23,999,999 iPods to go.

    Peace.

  3. I could see iPod sales leveling off, and not doing not as well as expected. We might be approaching the point where everyone who would like to have an iPod already has one.

    Once you have iPod, there is little reason to buy another anytime soon. They are pretty reliable machines (as long you take care of them) and older ones play music just as well as newer ones. My friend has a 3rd gen iPod it works great. He probably won’t buy a new iPod until they make a touch with enough flash memory to hold all of his music (which could take a few years)

    Mac sales, on the other hand, will definitely continue to grow, with no sign of stopping.

  4. Just remember, the iPod touch is a huge volume seller — hard to keep in stock. The new Nanos are hot, while the Shuffle got a cosmetic upgrade. Last year’s holiday quarter was driven by iPod sales which were themselves dominated by Shuffle stocking stuffer sales. This year the average selling price (ASP) for iPods will likely be much higher. Apple will once again, during the next quarterly report, shock the analysts who do not seem to understand simple arithmetic.

  5. Grammar man – your slip is showing…

    First of all, it ought to be “really” and not “real”. Furthermore, “swell” is an american colloquialism.

    “Phonics” is an interesting word – do you really know what it means? The Hutchison Encyclopaedia explains “phonics” as:

    phonic: a. phonetic; acoustic. phoniatrics, n. study and correction of speech defects. phonics, n. phonetics; acoustics; study of phonetic method of teaching reading.

    Those of us who speak uncorrupted English would say “phonetics” instead of “phonics” – but our friend was not speaking, as such, so phonics or phonetics don’t really come into it…

    As for “English”, the American version of the english language began diverging from the English language as it is spoken in England and her other colonies 400 years ago. “American English” is the bane of English speakers who don’t drop the “u” in words such as colour or flavour and who have to put up with “American English” dictionaries which the “unworldly” American software designers inflict upon the rest of us.

    For all these reasons, I suggest you proceed cautiously, as an American, when it comes to criticising the language skills of other English language speakers. You are outnumbered…

    Oscar Wilde once said “America is the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilisation in between.” De Gaulle quoted him. And no-one, in my recollection, has ever suggested that the American version of English is admirable in any respect, except that it uses fewer letters.

    … oh, and we don’t do the “z” thing. We prefer “s” as in colonise, vapourise and so on… And if we do use a “z”, we call it “zed”, not “zee”.

    And, now that the US dollar is falling, and US global influence is declining, perhaps Americans will begin to start learning about the rest of the world. It is not before time… But until you do, take some advice from me, and avoid entering an argument on language or culture. Neither are American fortes. I suggest you stick to brashness and arrogance. It is what Americans are famous for of course…

    Which is not to say that America has not produced literary genii. But those days are long past, and American language and cultural excellence has gone the way of much else that was good.

    Dorothy Parker, Edgar Allen Poe, Truman Capote, Ernest Hemingway et al are all in your past. Today, yours is the ultimate “dumbed-down” culture.

    Our Aussie friend is using “webspeak” – the language of the e-generation. And, because this is most greatly influenced by American cultural values, it lacks structure. If you find it hard to understand, you have only yourselves to blame.

  6. @MacSheikh,

    Glad to hear it!!! Apple’s on a roll now. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    Looking forward to Friday evening. We’ll pick up Family Editions of Leopard, iWork, and iLife then. However I will probably wait until Sunday before installing Leopard on one of our machines.

    Peace.

  7. sydneystephen,

    I fully agree with your assessment of the negative impact which “American cultural values” has created on a global scale. I am an American that has been working abroad for the last seven years. It truly amazes me how many times I have been embarrassed by statements or actions of my fellow US citizens. Most of them have never traveled outside their state of origin, let alone realized that there are other places beyond the US border.

  8. Ouch! Thank you for a cogent argument. Interesting, though, that as you defend a writer with poor skills, your grammar and usage is excellent, which I respect as much as I respect your well made points. And while I sometimes wonder if the US is indeed in decline, it may be overstating things to suggest that our demise is imminent. Ethno-centric goofballs aside, this is still a great country with a lot of wonderful people, most of whom are just as good as your mates in Australia. So, perhaps you should have chastised him, but left the rest of the country out of it.

    Peace out.

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