“Shares of Apple Inc. took a hit Tuesday morning after wireless carrier AT&T issued disappointing activation numbers for the iPhone for the last two days of the second quarter, when the device first went on sale,” Dan Gallagher reports for MarketWatch.
“In addition, a telecommunications analyst issued a report before the opening bell that said demand for the device at retail outlets has seen a ‘significant decline’ in recent days,” Gallagher reports.
“The iPhone went on sale at retail outlets operated by Apple and AT&T on June 29, leaving less than two full days before the end of the second quarter,” Gallagher reports.
“AT&T said it activated about 146,000 customers who bought the iPhone during those two days,” Gallagher reports. “Before Tuesday, analysts had been projecting opening-weekend sales for the iPhone of between 200,000 and 400,000 units. A few projections reached as high as 500,000 units…”
“‘We have noticed decent inventories [of the iPhone] at stores, and thin demand at best,’ analyst Ittai Kidron of CIBC World Markets wrote in a report Tuesday. ‘In fact, most Apple store visitors were not looking at the device and only a very small subset bought it,'” Gallagher reports.
“Investors will likely get a fuller picture of actual iPhone sales when Apple posts its own results for the June quarter on Wednesday,” Gallagher reports.
Full article here.
Now, after the typical hysterical Wall St. reaction, let’s apply some logic to the information.
AT&T’s quarter ended June 30, 2007. Apple’s iPhone went on sale in the U.S. on Friday, June 29th at 6pm local time. So, the totals are for about a day and a half, not two days, as widely reported. And when did AT&T actually stop their iPhone activation count exactly?
[UPDATE: 1:29pm EDT: An AT&T internal newsletter states, “Although it went on sale just 30 hours before the quarter ended, we had 146,000 activations in that period.” So, 30 hours, not 48. – Thanks, Robert.]
In addition, AT&T’s numbers measure only iPhone activations through June 30th, not sales. Some number of iPhone users experienced activation delays that may have delayed activation until after the June 30th end of AT&T’s quarter.
How many? We don’t know.
What of the iPhones that were sold online that weren’t activated by June 30th?
How many? We don’t know.
In the initial lines were many enthusiastic iPhone buyers. Reports from MacDailyNews readers (and also witnessed by MDN staff) show that many of these early iPhone buyers purchased two phones (Apple’s limit at Apple Retail Stores). When we asked fellow iPhone-waiters what they would be doing with their iPhones, many who were buying two stated that the other phone was intended as a gift. These iPhone gifts may not have been given to their recipients and activated by June 30th; therefore, they wouldn’t appear in AT&T’s provided count.
How many? We don’t know.
It should be obvious that iPhone sales would see “significant decline in recent days” as the initial frenzy of camping out and long waiting lines had set the bar at its highest point. Decline is a given after the long lines are served and the stanchions are removed.
Describing inventories as “decent” is a meaningless measure as Apple has never reported how many iPhones were manufactured and shipped for the initial supply. Based on reports and Apple’s own online resource for iPhone availability, Apple seems to have done a good job of keeping supplies of iPhones flowing and Apple retail stores, at least, resupplied on a regular basis. We don’t know how many iPhone units Apple supplied, so saying inventory is “decent” tells us absolutely nothing about the product’s actual unit sales.
And just how extensive were CIBC’s “checks?” They certainly don’t match our experiences of iPhone interest at Apple Retail Stores (and “on the street” with our iPhones) in recent weeks.
The analysts’ projections (200,0000 – 500,000) are for the entire weekend of iPhone sales, not the first 30 hours of activations.
Need more input, Stephanie.
As Gallagher mentioned in his report, we hope to get better idea of initial iPhone numbers when Apple reports their Q3 07 results (ended June 30, 2007) after market close tomorrow.
Every time I go in the Apple Store (almost everyday) The line at the iPhone display tables is 3 to 5 people deep – you can’t tell me that no one is looking at the phone..
What company do you know that reports quarterly results after business hours on the last Friday of the quarter? I suspect that even Saturday’s activations may not have been included.
As I’ve stated before. I’ve only seen two other iPhones at my place of employment with 1,300 employees. Most of whom pull a decent engineering salary.
I think this is all over hyped. The iPhone rocks. It really is revolutionary. Just give it some time to gain traction with the masses. So many people are interested in the phone. They just need time to get over the sticker shock and purchase one of their own.
Is it just me, or is it wrong that AT&T gives out this depth of information? Why can’t they call them new customers – those who really are? Why do they have to break out iphones as opposed to other phones? Leave that kind of info to Apple.
To me, this is just another way of how AT&T shows they are a poor corporate match for JobsCo. Also, you could argue the quarter ended at 6pm on Friday June 29, as that’s the last BUSINESS day of the quarter.
Those of us who bought iphones online that first weekend are just receiving and activating them now. Just got mine yesterday.
Tech analysts are dumb. Sure, the people who camped in line for hours probably rushed home to activate their phones right away (save for the ones they bought as gifts, as a previous poster mentioned). But lots of people who bought on Saturday probably didn’t bother with it right away. To many people, a new device like this (even one from Apple) is a pretty daunting task, with software and drivers and etc. that need to be installed, cables that need to be hooked up underneath the desk, etc. People simply have better things to do on a Saturday afternoon, and probably figured that they’d get started with the device on Sunday instead.
Got mine Friday afternoon and didn’t get it activated until Monday (thanks to Verizon not releasing my number), so I know my phone wasn’t counted against sales/activation.
There was a lot of iPhone activation for a few days, however this is a already highly saturated market. To have a few hundred thousand activations in a few days is pretty good.
As time goes on, if the iPhone lives up to potential and people find a use for it, they will perhaps upgrade their current phone for a iPhone.
But remmeber, a lot of people are already in lenghtly contracts.
Most people just want a cheap reliable phone with a slim profile and a long battery life.
Lot’s of companies give free phones for wireless contracts.
The iPhone is the top of the line device at a top of the line price, not many people want or need such a device.
It may attract those already in the market and the Apple religious, but it’s a slim market and not to be confused with the black hole market that was the iPod/Mp3 player market.
The mobile phone market is saturated. Expect iPhone sales to closely match iPod HiFi sales.
In that regard, sell your stock and take your profit.
@ whatever….
I agree, at the Manhattan Village store in California there are always a group of people playing with the iPhone. This is the majority of the store, so interest is high here as well.
I must assume the person writing was just another troll on the paper with little ground pounding. Just another dumb…. opps hold that thought!!!!
Ohhhh… the truth is out there
to Diz,
your place of work might not be a benchmark – you have to take samples from many places of work….
I for example have seen it with many everytime I go to Barnes and Nobles.
Neither me nor you can generalize and draw conclusions from this.
Bought mine on the first sunday. <—- not counted.
Spent about a half hour at a party saturday night demoing the iPhone for interested people. Did the same thing at a restaurant the next morning.
People are interested in it and when they see it, what usually follows is a chorus of oohs and aaahss.
We’ll see tomorrow…
OF COURSE
Apple was kind of dumb to release the iPhone at the very end of AT&T’s quarter in order to get misleading activating numbers like this.
Then again, it could have been PLANNED!!
Stock manipulaters.
I gotta agree with “whatever” on this one. I strolled by my Apple store on Sunday and it always has a number of people looking at the iPhones.
i have to agree with the first post, it is still a table of phones several people deep at the local store here….
and i know 4 people who bought phones, and none of the 4 had it activated in the time period they are talking about. 2 bought after that, and the other 2 charged them all night after buying.
…and how many were bought online? and just activating them now?
this is a terrible measure of phone sales. good time to buy stock though before it shoots up on the next really bit of info or big hardware release.
I was starting to worry that the MDN FUD machine had been disabled.
AT&T steasl SJ’s thunder the day before Appl announces their quarterly results ?
I think AT&T know better than to piss SJ off by blabbing numbers
I was in the Apple store at lunch late last week in Cambridge MA and at least 2 iphones were bought in the 10 minutes I was there. Every iphone on display had someone playing with it.
I bought an armband for my nano….blue.
There are loads of harry Potter books left in the stores too – that does not negate that the new Potter novel is the largest selling book ever.
Yea, you could be right “marty the mouse”
Steve could have planned this so to make the reports looked really dumb as they follow the trails of crumbs. Just to release real sales figures and have those numbers snap them in the rearend. With little recourse to correct their blundering glee.
The Steve RDF is still in full op and twisting the hell out of the reporters with preset bias.
Yea, from an iPhone user!!!
The BIG issue MDN did NOT mention is that online sales that first weekend would not have been activated the same weekend. (Kudos to “Jooop” for pointing this out, above.)
My prediction for first weekend sales (from 6 PM Friday until 12 midnight Sunday): 400,000 to 450,000 iPhones
It would have been more if they hadn’t sold out in so many stores. I bet Apple/ATT sold over 1 million in the first 7 days.
This is an AAPL buying opportunity!
The iPhone didn’t go on sale until 6:00pm on 29 June, so that means it is a 30-hour period, assuming the stores were open 24 hours a day, which they weren’t. Assuming the store were open 6-10 on Friday and 10-10 on Saturday, that means that 16 hours of sales resulted in 146,000 activations. That means that there were over 152 activations for every minute of iPhone sales.
Sounds like a big success to me.
Maybe we’ve all been victims of the hype.
The extent of my own disappointment at this news was a bit like a cold shower. Even if, for all the reasons mentioned above, AT&T’s numbers are conservative, the final figure is going to be way below my original estimates.
I think tomorrow, Steve Jobs should announce the up-to-date number sold.
This would prevent any further wild speculation, whether bullish or bearish.
I still believe the iPhone is going to be a big success and that it will revolutionize the cell-phone market; but it might just take longer than many of us thought.
Tthe real FUD is coming from the CIBC. I have seen no decrease in interest in the iPhone in Apple stores or with my iPhone.
I think after the recent run Apple has had with the stock, we can expect some bumps over the next few months. The stock is priced for perfection and the market is looking for a way to talk negative about it. If you can’t handle 10% to 15% corrections, you may want to sell.
The real story with Apple is over the next five years. If you believe that the iPhone with continue to gain share and the Mac with continue to gain share, Apple will be worth a lot more money in five years.
No one is looking at the phone? WHAT? Are they saying people are not even interested in looking at it? Hell I looked at the Zune (just to laugh at it).
F.U.D. If I ever read it…
Hmmmm.
So all the reports of AT&T’s network being “overloaded” by the unusually high volume of activations in those early days are because of… lower than expected activation numbers?
Something doesn’t seem right here.
I was just in the Irvine, CA Apple Store this past weekend, and overheard an employee telling a girl “Sorry, we only have 1 4 GB iPhone available at the moment.” Meanwhile there were at least a dozen people around the iPhone display either playing with, or clamoring to play with, the iPhone.
@ MDN
Short Circuit? Wow, that’s digging. ;P
Seems like to be inline to what some of my friends that are in the mobile industry. Basically saying that the iPhone is nothing more than a dumbdown smartphone thats overpriced. It would never sell or even dent the smartphone market. So the numbers pretty much jive. I don’t agree with them, but this report sorta gives them the ammo at the moment.
I thought that AT&T stores, only 1800 or so, sold out in two days or so, and Apple stores weren’t much better. That we know.
So what do AT&T’s activation numbers have to do with the first two day sales? Tip of the iceberg. How big was the iceberg? Apparently about the same size as the available inventory at introduction.
Also, if sales are to be taken into income over 24 months, then two days sales would be completely excluded, a fulll month has to transpire to book one-twenty fourth of the income. In other words, for Apple, no income booked at all until July is over.
CIBC has lost a lot of cred with this call. Is it in the business of talking stock down to make a killing on the over-reaction?
RIM is down $5.64 whilst AAPL is down $3.40 as I write @l.43 p.m. Why is RIM down, competition from AAPL? Fear?
AT&T stores had very limited supplies on the 29th. I bought (i.e. paid for) mine at 8 pm on the 29th, but didn’t receive it until the 3rd.
A company can’t book a sale that has not shipped so no online sales will show in Apple’s qtr either. It would surprise me to see that activations thru 12 counted but claim appears to be from internal newsletter and says 30 hours so 12 eastern would seem to be the cutoff. Lots of people will not have completed activation of sold units so I’m expecting a large surprise from Apple tomorrow evening.
My guess: they sold about 160,000 on Friday and Saturday and about half that rate every day since (on average). So by now they’ve sold about 1.1 million.
Is that 30 Hours on the East coast or West coast?
Several friends and business associates have seen and been impressed by my iPhone. I know of 5 who plan on buying later in the year, as soon as their current contracts with other carriers expire. They see no point in giving $200 to T-mobile right now. I think long term growth for the iPhone is assured.
I stopped at an AT&T store and played with an iPhone the other day and I was the only one doing so and still no assistance from the help. I’m quessing Apple is going to so kick AT&T’s butt in the numbers that all phone manufactures are going to be looking closely at the current business model. Imagine if RIM had a way to buy a blackberry where a knowledgable assistant helped you. Nokia has just one US store last I knew and from what I’ve read the numbers blow away other phone retailers.
So surprise surprise the current method of having dips- – -‘s just focus on getting you to sign a contract and leave is messed up. Who has not needed to call customer service at least once following the purchase of a new phone, upgrade or not.
Apple clearly needed the network but wanted to leave AT&T out of the sales game based on the inventory levels handed over for the launch. Whatever numbers we see are from 1800 stores with just a handful of inventory and Apple’s 180 odd outlets. With just this it will probally still end up being the fastest selling gizmo to break a million units.
I bought mine at a local AT&T store at 8ish on the 29th. The clerk said they had already sold 40-45 iPhones…x 1800 stores +however many from the Apple stores = a helluva lot more than 150k. I believe Apple sold somewhere North of 350k in those first 30 hours. Easily.
Which other phone, smart or not, sold (activated) 146,000 units in 30 hrs?
blame it on the Zunes.
Let’s see, 30 hours divided by 146,000 activations comes to 81 activations/minute.
How many could AT&T handle per minute that first weekend?
yes, there is plenty missing from this – reality of the situation being one of them.
i bought my phone and my rooommate’s phone Friday evening. He activated his the next day. I sat around waiting for T-Mobile to release my number until 8 pm Saturday night before just reactivating with a completely new number from AT&T. So, had I not done that my activation may not have been counted either – it still might not have since it happened at almost 9PM on a Saturday night.
Wall St. is sad. They’re hysterical little middle school girls and ignore the reality of the world before making knee jerk reactions. I hope that the people who can are buying shares of Apple while it’s down at the moment. I hope you enjoy it and make plenty of money off it!
Much of today’s stock price decline can be blamed on this story, but a lot of traders were recommending a short term sale of AAPL over the past couple days. There is a lot of profit taking ahead of the qrtly report tomorrow. Most of today’s sellers will be back in shortly.
I ordered my iPhone late on Friday the 29th, and received it last Monday. Activating it took a couple minutes for me to be able to call out, but it took three days and two calls to T-Mobile customer service before T-Mobile released my number and incoming calls were ringing on the iPhone instead of my old Sony-Ericsson. It’s not clear when AT&T would consider my activation to have taken place.
-jcr
What I don’t understand is that Verizon did not have the capacity to handle 81.11 iPhone activations per minute in the 30 hours left in the quarter?
I was in a Radio Shack the other day and in the course of 5 minutes, two people came in looking for an iPhone and the AT&T stores nearby seem to always have someone playing with them…no lack of interest here in Boston. I think the online sales figures could be a fascinating surprise factor since none of the so called analysts with all their formulas have factored that in. I can’t wait to hear the real numbers!
Their stupidity is your buying opportunity.
sorry ATT
Hope y’all are ready for the stock train wreck tomorrow. Buy those puts now, ya hear?
Charko said, “I think tomorrow, Steve Jobs should announce the up-to-date number sold. “
Sorry, that is not the way the game is played. Sales will be released thru the end of the quarter, which is usually close of business the last business day of the quarter. OK so here they will strech it a bit but, really, sales are for the quarter, not current. That number will climb and climb until Apple is ready to punch the market and pundits once again.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” /> He is not “our” Steve for nothing.
My guess is when they reach say 5 million (1/2 of the way to the end of 2008 ) that they will announce and let everyone know how far ahead they are.
When was the last time you heard about iPod sales???
ITs all a Game, and the analysis all play so badly. 🙁
en
It’s been hacked! It’s unuseable unlless you want your phone taken over and running out of your hands by remote control… and now it’s not selling!
It’s a complete and utter failure !!!
Yes the above its true … why? … because I said so …
Oh yeah … and WTC 7 was destroyed by fire …
You do believe me … don’t you??
Die Apple … die …
MicroTurd New World Order Lackey ….
Remember this,
These numbers only reflect what was counted at the time of closure at the quarter end.
excluding are:
2 percent had problems directly activating due to demand
Those with zip codes different than where the phone number was activated with a different carrier-thus no activation.
Those that had to learn how to activate-needing to download iTunes, install, and activate (minus any other of the above problems)
As mentioned in earlier by people- those given as gifts
The amount ordered online and noway to activate until receipt.
And the fact that the stores sold out of 8 gig units and 4 gig just would not do.
The fact that stores did sell out- just could not sell anymore to activate.
Even Manhattan Village was selling out early in the morning even after a week, which required standing in line around six in the morning to get an 8 gig. Hey, delayed demand!
But just 149,000 units in about a day of normal operation…. not bad!
Others have any other ideas?
Only 146,000, after all that hype?
How embarrassing.
CIBC: as a bank, they were up Enron’s cornhole bigtime, and they paid the price financially, and as a bank they are one of the more execreble examples here in Canada, where they are based. My family has boycotted them and everything about them for over 50 years. They Suck! I take all utterances from any of their corporate organs, as not worth the TP they are scribbled on.
Another thing that noone has pointed out:
Now that I know that Apple is capbable of keeping supply steady, I’ll take my time about getting one. After the day 1, 2, 3 hype settled down, it’s now more of a leisure purchase than an immediate, frantic, obsession.
I’ll mosey on in sometime in August. No hurry. There are still a lot of folks waiting for their current contracts to expire.
They tidal wave has hit, but the water level is rising steadily.
If 2000 actual stores combined averaged together 70 phones sold for Friday night and all day Saturday, just that would equal 140,000 units. 1800 AT&T stores were mostly sold out, and let’s say each AT&T store got 50 phones apiece on average. That is close to 90,000 units just at AT&T stores,
and noone can tell me that the Apple Stores only sold 50,000 units.
Something is REALLY WRONG with these numbers, even with activation problems due to volume. There were hundreds in line just at the Apple Stores.
Many of the Apple Stores were sold out.
FISHY, FISHY, FISHY, folks.
Cramer and his Cronies are gonna say they were right, but anyone who does their homework, and Cramer’s Cronies didn’t, would sit on AAPL, while the Jackass sheep sold their shares and will pay their taxes.
“There are three types of lies – lies, damn lies, and statistics.” — B Disraeli.
The AT&T numbers have no meaningful context, ergo, nothing can be discerned.
Remember, “Waiting is fullness,” says Valentine Michael Smith (— R Heinlein).
They say iPhone sales numbers are slowing…well, when you average 140,000 units the first two days, that would mean what?…51,100,000 units a year? I would say sales are slowing based on those numbers or less. Headlines always leave out a portion of the truth! Numbers are down, but down from what astronomical number in the cell phone industry? We’ve got abunch of bozo’s trading, folks.
@ChrissyOne… Yeah, but I like Short Circuit! Needing more “input” has become a standard in some circles since the movie. I certainly use it myself! MDN’s Take reminds me that I’d like to find my copy and see it again!
Well, that’s my input, Stephanie.
BUY, BUY, BUY!
As I said three hours ago: buy puts. Y’all should have listened.
The chickens have come home to roost.
It’s a good time to buy Apple stock. Can’t wait to see the numbers from Apple (i.e. a competent source) as opposed to American Telephone & Telegraph. Dinosaurs aren’t considered to be the most intelligent of creatures.
What an interesting time to be alive and involved! Congress is acting to free the consumer’s phones and to set aside some public portion of the new 700mz spectrum in the “iPhone hearings” due to the “Free the iPhone” folks.
Phone manufacturers are rushing to introduce new “iPhone killers” with more features. RIM has rushed out a dual-use phone to take advantage on newly opened web freedom. Web 2.0 developers are steadily pumping out new applications for Safari and the iPhone, and the business security objections are being steadily diminished. Hackers are working overtime to test out the new iPhone and ultimately improve the security.
Carriers are seeing their oligopoly in selling music, IM minutes, video and data-minutes threatened by the new side-loading capabilities. The iPhone has given new public awareness and support for implementing faster and better wireless networks and called attention to the US situation vs. the European and Asian increased capabilities.
Whether the Stock Analysists, the IT crowd and the MS defenders or the Apple loyalists and the ordinary non-IT consumers will prevail…the stuggle is on. Books will be written, either way.
Hmm, let’s see. 146,000 phones in 30 hours equals 4867 phones per hour times 24 hours equals 116,800 phones per day times 365 days equals 42,632,000 per year. A very rough extrapolation, indeed, but I think Apple will very much exceed their goal of 10,000,000 iPhones by the end of 2008.
MW: only, as in only time will tell.
AT&T didn’t have the Faith! The AT&T store where I bought my iPhone had less than 50 phones to sell. Many reports were coming in that many AT&T stores had only 20! I was at the counter one hour after the AT&T store closed and they were OUT! I paid for an 8GB iPhone and got it delivered on the following Tuesday. The Apple Stores were doing their best to distribute iPhones but with AT&T not having the Faith to stock more, it drastically reduced the outlets where one could walk out with an iPhone on the first weekend of its introduction. I think we’ll see some impressive numbers coming from Apple tomorrow.
$135?! Damn, I wish I had some cash lying around.
Interesting that Apple is getting slammed for having sufficient supply, after years of getting slammed for the opposite.
stocks don’t go straight up. I cut my position in half today. I do plan to buy it back later, but I’m in no rush. I really do believe we’re headed to 180-200. But not straight there.
Basically either try to work volatility as your friend or ignore it. The key is to not be that last seller when the stock makes an intermediate correction bottom at $110 or $95.
The number from AT&T is sold for the future of the phone btw. This is all about stock trading. Stock trading is all about the other traders, their fear and greed, and controlling your own fear and greed.
Ooops. I mean OMG it’s a disaster. Shark! Everybody out of the pool NOW. It’s going back down to $60. SJ will be settle with the DOJ and resign next week!!! Sell while you can! (Okay so nobody here is going to be the fool to sell me my shares back at $110, are you?)
No game like it.
MW: fire… fire sale?
In any way, shape or form, MDN should obey the wise words from MDN.
Friday, July 20, 2007 – 08:52 PM EDT
MacDailyNews Take: Moral of the story: In any way, shape, or form, STFU until you know WTF you’re talking about.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007 – 12:56 PM EDT
MacDailyNews Take:
…
How many? We don’t know.
…
How many? We don’t know.
…
How many? We don’t know.
I don’t have my iphone. I will definitely buy one someday. But I have 2 contract cancellation fees I’d have to pay. Unfortunately I re-upped with Sprint shortly before the announcment. My point is just I don’t think I’m unique. Adoption of iphone will be slowed by cancellation penalties. But LT I will ABSOLUTELY have one. The fact that Sprint has me by the short ones kind of makes me dedicated to dropping them.
Another way of looking at this, is that as time goes on and people’s contracts expire, it’s an automatic price cut in the phone.
It could look a lot like ipod…
Friction in adoption will not hurt the iphone or Apple long-term. But it could create stock “buying opportunities”.
I bought my iPhone the day it came out, June 29th, and attempted to activate the phone that night.
My phone was not actually activated until July 1st, thanks to what I understand is a byzantine conflict between my previous data plan and the data plan required for the iPhone: my previous data plan had a certain cap, and they had to cancel that data plan before activating the new one. Took AT&T a couple days to figure that out.
I don’t doubt that the number of activations in the first two days of the release is less than the number of sales by a factor of 10, for reasons such as this one and others mentioned above.
I bought my iPhone last Friday in the Apple Store at the Fashion Show Mall in Las Vegas, NV. The store was packed and every iPhone they had on display was being handled by one or more customers.
Store clerks did say they had plenty of iPhones in stock, but gave indication that was because of reduced or low demand.
I actually waited a few days before activating my phone in order to get my contacts, calendar, playlists, etc. in order to ease the transition from my present cell to the iPhone, and just to savor the moment, draw it out for a little before diving into actual use.
I wouldn’t be surprised if others did the same?
Wow. So many news articles with iPhone being a flop. Over 200 articles already.
two things…
1) MDN say’s “MAY be misleading” operative word, “MAY”…146,000 activations, I’d say that’s WAY FAR OFF from any 1 million or 500,000 (for that matter) mark as many have suggested…now granted, I bought myself a iPhone and I LOVE IT! So I’m not bashing. However, some people, I think deliberately set us up for “failure”, reverse FUD?
2) This might be a stock buying oppurtunity.
oh and btw, my iPhone activated without a hitch!
I can balance out Diz’s sample set as there are quite a few software engineers at my work who have swapped out their WM5 phones for iPhones.
Of course, you could always wait until tomorrow to find out what the sales figures really are. I’m guessing they’ll be in line with original estimates, i.e. 150-250,000.
And I don’t think the article is FUD considering that’s actually what AT&T activated. Honestly, grow up people.
146,000 activated by the close of the quarter. IF we assume that activations on Sunday equaled 2/3 of the activations on Friday night and Saturday, that would make the total number of weekend activations 243000, or there-abouts.
Sounds pretty good to me. Right at a Quarter of a million activations in one weekend.
I wonder what the first full week’s sales+activations figures were? We wont get them tomorrow … I doubt we will, but one never quite knows what the report will include other than the strict Quarterly report. However, if we arbitrarily assume that buying continued for that first week on the level of Sunday’s sales and activations (and remember, the 4th of July fell mid-week, so there’s your fudge factor right there), that would come to an additional 435,000 activations for Monday – Friday at 6 pm. By my math, that means that the first week’s activations should total somewhere around 650,000 – 700,000. I wonder if, when all is said and done, that’s the ballpark for the first week’s activation figures, with the first week’s total SALES (including the internet Apple Store sales) being somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 million? Even if such turns out to be the case, I doubt — seriously doubt — that such will shut up the Apple Haters.
I bought my iPhone on Monday, July 2. I activated it that same day. I stood in a reasonable, 15 minute long line to buy mine, even though I went to the store at 2:30 pm (I had been warned to come early in order to miss the business buyers). Even though I was there mid-day the store was packed with people flocking around the table to see the iPhone and the store was nearly out of 8 GB iPhones, with the post 5:30 pm crowd still to show up. I asked the Genius who helped me and he said that they had sold out Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, of ALL units, and that they expected to sell out every day that week. I have no reason to think they didn’t.
The only numbers that count are those released by apple tomorrow. In fact apple losing 6 points today would provide a buying opportunity before apple stock soars.
CIBC is a Canadian Bank – The Canadian Imperialist Bank of Commerce.The analyst probably went to the local Apple store and correctly observed no one one was paying any attention to iPhone. – cause its not even sold in Canada eh.
Analyst, reporters want to talk about the iPhone because its “happening”, some of these a-holes hate Apple, some hate Apple users, some hate themselves, some have nothing to say, so they spew shit; See, I can write without responsibility too!
“Nobody is even paying attention to iPhone”, now that one is total BS, personally I don’t want to by it, but I sure as hell want to touch and see it for free!!!
RE: diz/Macman
Please remember that engineers are not really representative of AAPL’s core demographic. Not to dIsrespect, but there pretty much a MS-Windows group, simply due to the fact that there is so little quality Mac engineering software. I’d be shocked to find just one of the engineers I work with that had an iPhone.
if they dont have enough product to meet initial demand they are condemed if they do have enough product they are called a failure. And the stock price dropped all the way back to where it was last week! Oh the horror!
I have tons of Apple hardware at my place, including enough parts to build four complete PM8500 systems, an blue & white G3, a beige G3, two Quadra 840av’s, a tangerine CRT iMac, a grey & white G4, an iBook, and a three week new Intel Mac Mini.
I have no plans to buy an iPhone. Unlike my other Apple hardware, to me the iPhone just looks like something that will wind up in the landfill three years from now. Rather spend the money on something else, like a car payment.
Agreeing with ChrissyOne here – you’ve sure identified yourself as a child of the eighties.
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MDN magic word – Thirty (years ago, almost)
How is nearly 150,000 activations in 30 hours a dissapointment?? Everyone knows AT&T had major issues with activations, with some people waiting over 24 hours…that means, retards, that a MINIMUM of 150,000 $500+ devices sold in a friggin’ DAY. That’s $75,000,000 in revenue in ONE DAY. Just on the iPhone. At a MINIMUM.
MDN MW – “kind”, as in “Wall St. was not kind to Apple yesterday…”
Lets apply a little teensy bit of criticality to our journalism, if that’s not an impossibility today. Everyone keeps blindly repeating this CIBC “analyst” Ittai Kidron as if there is some legitimacy to his claims.
Kidron,
1. performs his analysis for a Canadian company
2. normally covers RIMM
3. never covers Apple (until now)
4. RIMM is a Canadian company
5. RIMM is a competitor to Apples iPhone
6. Provides no empirical support for his claims
Duhhhhhh, what do you think is going on here? And yet, the FUD is spread all over the net and evening news broadcasts as if it is fact.
HYPERREALITY in action (see wikipedia)
146,000 activations … but 270,000 sales. In 30 hours.
WHAMMMMMMMM
So much for the nay-sayers.