RBC Capital: Apple iPhone sales ‘well ahead’ of projections

“RBC Capital notes their checks suggest Apple may plan to produce 8M iPhones CY07, implying 12-14M unit sales end CY08, well ahead of Apple’s publicly stated 18-mo 10M goal. Apple’s CY07 plans may include offering higher memory (e.g. 16GB) iPhones, while refreshing existing models at lower cost to stimulate demand,” Notable Calls reports.

“Checks also suggest Apple may be planning an iPod line refresh Q4CY07, including new versions that they believe include: an updated iPod Nano, a new iPod and new video iPod. Some or all may include iPhone-like features (Touchscreen, Widescreen, new UI etc). RBC also expects new devices with more memory and integrated wireless (Wi-Fi),” Notable Calls reports.

“Based on these checks, the firm is raising their iPhone sales outlook to 13.5M units (10.1M prior) end CY08,” Notable Calls reports.

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Linux Guy And Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]

Anyone who can do basic math, can get a few retail employees to talk, and follows the iPhone unit refresh rates at Apple and AT&T stores knows that Apple is selling more iPhones than almost any analyst is publicly projecting. Obviously, Jobs is letting the anticipation and the sales figures build until he releases iPhone unit sales totals with maximum effect. Many are going to be absolutely stunned by the number when Apple finally releases it, perhaps on July 25th with the company’s Q3 07 quarterly results.

26 Comments

  1. MikeK, Agreed. However, we should get a number for those two days at a minimum. I’m hoping they use the earnings announcement (or as Georgy Porgy notes, sometime that week) to announce more than just June sales.

    Something I find unbelievable: I work at an aerospace manufacturing plant with over 1,000 employees and we can only find 2 of us with an iPhone. Lots and lots of interest (I can’t walk down the hall without about 5 people stopping me to play with my phone, but folks around here aren’t buying them yet). That may bode well for future sales (huge interest and not everyone has one yet).

  2. I’m thinking of a lawsuit aginst Apple because the iPhone won’t accomodate or interface with my wheelchair. How can I hold the phone with one hand and wheel the chair? I go in circles. These people are only about profit. If I get hit by a truck in the streets because I’m going in circles at least Steve Jobs is making money on my grave.

  3. @ WHAT ABOUT ME:

    Funny you say that, because I feel the same. Except Im only deaf in one ear and on the other I have a hearing aid. However, I have to admit my iPhone is more ADA FRIENDLY than any other phone Ive had. Let’s just hope things get better!

  4. NEW YORK (Reuters) – Clients of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) could be excused for feeling dizzy in the last few days after reading the banking group’s investment research on Apple Inc (AAPL).

    Kevin Chang, an analyst covering telecom equipment for JPMorgan in Taiwan, issued a report on July 8 saying Apple may introduce a phone in the fourth quarter that is inspired by the design of its ultra-slim nano music players and is half as expensive as its $600 iPhone, launched on June 29.

    But a day later, Bill Shope, a U.S. analyst who covers Apple for JPMorgan, followed with a note to clients that contradicted virtually everything his colleague had said and questioned the sources Chang used for his take on Apple product plans.

    Rather than bring out a low-end version of the iPhone any time soon, Shope said, Apple would likely make its next phone a more sophisticated device with high-speed cellular Internet connections, a feature missing from the current iPhone.

    Asked about the conflicting reports, Brian Marchiony, a U.S. spokesman for JPMorgan, said Shope “holds JPMorgan’s official view of Apple’s stock.”

    Chang declined comment.

    On Tuesday, Apple shares rose as much as 3.2 percent following the report. The stock closed 0.03 percent higher at US$132.39 on Wednesday, underperforming the U.S. Dow Jones index’s .DJI 0.56 percent rise.

    While Shope said the eventual introduction of a cheaper iPhone is “inevitable,” he described the prospects for a near-term launch as “unusual and highly risky.” He also dismissed Chang’s assertion that Apple could convert its nanos to phones.

    “We struggle to understand why Apple would abandon one of its most successful product lines with a carrier-centric low-end phone,” Shope said.

    He also questioned his colleague’s sourcing, saying “the majority of Mr. Chang’s assumptions on the form factor and functionality of the ‘nano phone”‘ were derived from a patent filing that gave little information on actual products.

    Shope said he was unable to independently confirm Chang’s reference to unnamed “channel checks” even as he said the channel checks — supply-chain sources — were “very interesting and worth further monitoring.”

    Another investment bank, Goldman Sachs, weighed in on the debate by saying on Wednesday that it was unlikely a nano iPhone was in the works at Apple. Even if there was one, the product is more likely to be launched next year or the year after.

  5. Busting, Apple did not invent the SmartPhone category, just reinvented it and expanded it. Many of the previous top sellers in that category were Powered By Windows! Which, of course, is why we’ve heard so much about the iPhone not plugging directly into Enterprise systems and the like. True, it was a significantly trimmed down version of Windows, it was still Windows. And now it seems the iPhone has launched itself directly into the Top Ten on the sales chart – we’re still waiting for the numbers to see where OSX fits on the shorter OS list.
    Point being, there’s no need, today, of launching a “Zune phone” as the market is well covered with Windows phones. MS knows how well their OS has been selling. MS knows how much effort/expense goes into creating the hardware to run their software. MS knows how much their software would have to be updated to match the OS in the iPhone. Maybe they’d give it to their Console division, or maybe they’ll stick with their current business model – either seems a sort of a losing proposition, the latter being less of one.

    DLMeyer – the Voice of G.L.Horton’s Stage Page Pod Cast

  6. There may be a dim possibility that Apple will declare 29/07 the end of the financial quarter which will mean that it won’t declare any iPhone sales in the last quarter at all; even more likely is that – even when they do release quarterly results which include iPhones – Apple will hide the numbers in the iPod figures for “competitive” reasons.

    Given that we think that the 1M mark has already been passed – without either official or unofficial comment from Apple – it could be that they’ll save the first announcement for something like 2.5 or 5 million phones or the first month (29/08).

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.