“RBC Capital notes their checks suggest Apple may plan to produce 8M iPhones CY07, implying 12-14M unit sales end CY08, well ahead of Apple’s publicly stated 18-mo 10M goal. Apple’s CY07 plans may include offering higher memory (e.g. 16GB) iPhones, while refreshing existing models at lower cost to stimulate demand,” Notable Calls reports.
“Checks also suggest Apple may be planning an iPod line refresh Q4CY07, including new versions that they believe include: an updated iPod Nano, a new iPod and new video iPod. Some or all may include iPhone-like features (Touchscreen, Widescreen, new UI etc). RBC also expects new devices with more memory and integrated wireless (Wi-Fi),” Notable Calls reports.
“Based on these checks, the firm is raising their iPhone sales outlook to 13.5M units (10.1M prior) end CY08,” Notable Calls reports.
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Linux Guy And Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]
Anyone who can do basic math, can get a few retail employees to talk, and follows the iPhone unit refresh rates at Apple and AT&T stores knows that Apple is selling more iPhones than almost any analyst is publicly projecting. Obviously, Jobs is letting the anticipation and the sales figures build until he releases iPhone unit sales totals with maximum effect. Many are going to be absolutely stunned by the number when Apple finally releases it, perhaps on July 25th with the company’s Q3 07 quarterly results.
A widescreen (widerscreen) iPod in the 30g range with wifi would be great. Count me in Apple!
when are they gonna make the braille iphone with a ‘real’ touch screen? also need a model for the deaf and mute.
I think the iPhone sales figure will be the stunner when the financial results are released later this month.
Apple’s earnings call is scheduled for July 25th after market close. We should know more by then.
There will only be two days worth of iPhone sales in the current quarter as it ended on June 30th.
I expect an announcement either on the 25th or maybe a business day or so before the 25th.
MikeK, Agreed. However, we should get a number for those two days at a minimum. I’m hoping they use the earnings announcement (or as Georgy Porgy notes, sometime that week) to announce more than just June sales.
Something I find unbelievable: I work at an aerospace manufacturing plant with over 1,000 employees and we can only find 2 of us with an iPhone. Lots and lots of interest (I can’t walk down the hall without about 5 people stopping me to play with my phone, but folks around here aren’t buying them yet). That may bode well for future sales (huge interest and not everyone has one yet).
I know for a fact that Apple sold at least one.
And in the annals of Tech History, we have iPhone vs. Zune phone with yet another ridiculous landslide victory for Apple. Come to think of it, it’s a little like Reagan’s landslide victories in ’80 and ’84.
I’m thinking of a lawsuit aginst Apple because the iPhone won’t accomodate or interface with my wheelchair. How can I hold the phone with one hand and wheel the chair? I go in circles. These people are only about profit. If I get hit by a truck in the streets because I’m going in circles at least Steve Jobs is making money on my grave.
@ WHAT ABOUT ME:
Funny you say that, because I feel the same. Except Im only deaf in one ear and on the other I have a hearing aid. However, I have to admit my iPhone is more ADA FRIENDLY than any other phone Ive had. Let’s just hope things get better!
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Clients of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) could be excused for feeling dizzy in the last few days after reading the banking group’s investment research on Apple Inc (AAPL).
Kevin Chang, an analyst covering telecom equipment for JPMorgan in Taiwan, issued a report on July 8 saying Apple may introduce a phone in the fourth quarter that is inspired by the design of its ultra-slim nano music players and is half as expensive as its $600 iPhone, launched on June 29.
But a day later, Bill Shope, a U.S. analyst who covers Apple for JPMorgan, followed with a note to clients that contradicted virtually everything his colleague had said and questioned the sources Chang used for his take on Apple product plans.
Rather than bring out a low-end version of the iPhone any time soon, Shope said, Apple would likely make its next phone a more sophisticated device with high-speed cellular Internet connections, a feature missing from the current iPhone.
Asked about the conflicting reports, Brian Marchiony, a U.S. spokesman for JPMorgan, said Shope “holds JPMorgan’s official view of Apple’s stock.”
Chang declined comment.
On Tuesday, Apple shares rose as much as 3.2 percent following the report. The stock closed 0.03 percent higher at US$132.39 on Wednesday, underperforming the U.S. Dow Jones index’s .DJI 0.56 percent rise.
While Shope said the eventual introduction of a cheaper iPhone is “inevitable,” he described the prospects for a near-term launch as “unusual and highly risky.” He also dismissed Chang’s assertion that Apple could convert its nanos to phones.
“We struggle to understand why Apple would abandon one of its most successful product lines with a carrier-centric low-end phone,” Shope said.
He also questioned his colleague’s sourcing, saying “the majority of Mr. Chang’s assumptions on the form factor and functionality of the ‘nano phone”‘ were derived from a patent filing that gave little information on actual products.
Shope said he was unable to independently confirm Chang’s reference to unnamed “channel checks” even as he said the channel checks — supply-chain sources — were “very interesting and worth further monitoring.”
Another investment bank, Goldman Sachs, weighed in on the debate by saying on Wednesday that it was unlikely a nano iPhone was in the works at Apple. Even if there was one, the product is more likely to be launched next year or the year after.
Busting, Apple did not invent the SmartPhone category, just reinvented it and expanded it. Many of the previous top sellers in that category were Powered By Windows! Which, of course, is why we’ve heard so much about the iPhone not plugging directly into Enterprise systems and the like. True, it was a significantly trimmed down version of Windows, it was still Windows. And now it seems the iPhone has launched itself directly into the Top Ten on the sales chart – we’re still waiting for the numbers to see where OSX fits on the shorter OS list.
Point being, there’s no need, today, of launching a “Zune phone” as the market is well covered with Windows phones. MS knows how well their OS has been selling. MS knows how much effort/expense goes into creating the hardware to run their software. MS knows how much their software would have to be updated to match the OS in the iPhone. Maybe they’d give it to their Console division, or maybe they’ll stick with their current business model – either seems a sort of a losing proposition, the latter being less of one.
DLMeyer – the Voice of G.L.Horton’s Stage Page Pod Cast
There may be a dim possibility that Apple will declare 29/07 the end of the financial quarter which will mean that it won’t declare any iPhone sales in the last quarter at all; even more likely is that – even when they do release quarterly results which include iPhones – Apple will hide the numbers in the iPod figures for “competitive” reasons.
Given that we think that the 1M mark has already been passed – without either official or unofficial comment from Apple – it could be that they’ll save the first announcement for something like 2.5 or 5 million phones or the first month (29/08).
Wow, an analyst got it right, that Apple’s 1% goal was for the end of calendar year 2008, not 2007, or FY08. I think that’s a first.
@ MCCFR
“…it could be that they’ll save the first announcement for something like 2.5 or 5 million phones or the first month (29/08).”
I think it’s likely that we’ll hear the sales figures in the earnings report on the 25th. I’d certainly want to crow about such numbers if they make the rest of the industry look as bad as they probably will. Since iPhone sales are amortized over 2 years, there’s really no reason to report them quarter-by-quarter. But that’s just conjecture, I guess. I just wanna know!
-c
My wishful thinking is a 2.5 million iPhone announcement on the morning of July 23rd, and then quarterly results beating expectations on Mac sales, iPods, etc. announced on the 25th…then, early Aug., a skinnier iMac announcement, maybe with a new iLife and/or iWork, or maybe a Leopard voucher so people won’t wanna wait ’til October before buying a new iMac. In the meantime…a few iPhone software updates periodically, gradually trickling features in(as Blackberry and Verizon weep). Then, a new widescreen/touchscreen iPod, yes, Zune Tang, with wifi come November.
The January keynote should really be alot of smirking gloating fun, as all the competition grabs their ankles for their yearly spanking.
RBC Capital notes their checks suggest Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may plan to produce 8M iPhones CY07, implying 12-14M unit sales end CY08, well ahead of Apple’s publicly stated 18-month 10M goal.
How does RBC explain Apple selling approximately 1,000,000 units in the iPhone launch week, then estimate 14 million units sold by end of c2008.
One week equal 1,000,000 units
78 weeks equal 14,000,000 units.
In order for RBC’s “estimate” to be anywhere near accurate, the sales rate of iPhones (while Apple is opening European and Asian markets) has to drop 83% from current levels, then go flat during an 18 month period that includes TWO Christmas shopping quarters.
I hope they wrote their report on tissue paper. If they had, it may have some value (albeit a dirty one).
” . . . as all the competition grabs their ankles for their yearly spanking.”
Will that video be on YouTube? I’ll make popcorn.
Analysts are saying that checks show December 25th is expected to arrive after December 24th.
I thought Apple’s earnings came out on the 18th. Am I wrong?
re: Wow, an analyst got it right, that Apple’s 1% goal was for the end of calendar year 2008, not 2007, or FY08. I think that’s a first.
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He must have been the only anal-yst that watched the keynote then!
Everyone and his dog knows that Apples projected sales of the iPhone is 10 million for the end of 2008.
Amazing what a 30 second look on the internet can come up with – I advise all anal-ysts to do something called ‘research’ and use a small thing called ‘the internet’, but of course anal-ysts have never even heard of electricity let alone an amazing and miraculous invention called ‘the internet’.
HOT NEWS!
Anal-ysts have predicted that Christmas Day will be on December 25th!!
OMFG!!
It would be absurd to extrapolate the sales rate from the first weekend – or first week – into the future. Initial sales comprise pent up demand that had been building from the initial announcement.
But it would make no sense to end the quarter on the 28th just to avoid the iPhone sales. It would only screw up comparisons to past and future third quarters. Besides, iPhone sales will show only a minimum effect on the quarter’s numbers since they’re amortized over 24 months.
@ What about me: The current iPhone does indeed already support deaf/mute users with its TTY/TDD adapter: http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/wo/StoreReentry.wo?productLearnMore=MA854LL/A
Now, as for braille use, that to me sounds like you’d need a completely different product than the iPhone.