“Apple Computer Inc. could warn that its fourth-quarter profit and revenue may fall short of Wall Street expectations, as it cuts back on shipments of its iPod digital music player ahead of a new version, an analyst said on Wednesday,” Reuters reports.
“Apple shares slipped to an 9-month low after Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Robert Semple said he expects Apple, whose iPod device dominates the market for digital music and MP3 players, to forecast revenue of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion, shy of the $4.9 billion seen by Reuters Estimates,” Reuters reports.
Reuters reports, “Semple added that Apple could forecast a quarterly profit of 50 cents a share, short of analysts’ view of 52 cents a share. ‘We expect Apple will once again use the September quarter to reduce iPod inventories as the company prepares for a refresh of its product lineup, which we continue to believe will occur in the Sept/Oct time frame,’ he said in a note to clients.
Full article here.
Related article:
Apple to hold Q3 06 Quarterly Earnings Call on July 19 – July 05, 2006
I love the use of the word “could”.
These guys bug me.
This is code analysts use with each other. I’ll translate it for everyone here.
Translation: Buy AAPL.
Unfortunately, I don’t disagree with the numbers. Based on some other research I’ve seen, it looks like AAPL might miss earnings. That said, I’m still LONG on AAPL. If it drops post earnings (next week), I plan on picking up a few hundred shares.
Knowing that it may drop, why am I holding AAPL? because I believe that they are in an overall upwards growth. This was the pain year. The transition was not painless (from the stock point of view), but the products are great. Once the transition is complete, the stock should improve.
Get your broker’s number on speed dial. Looks like a great opportunity for you to buy is coming up.
Gregg Thurman where are you?
Just a couple of weeks ago you were predicting Apple at over $70 by July 21 – based on fantastic 4th quarter profit and revenue advice.
I bet my house on your stock picking prognosticating here!
Meanwhile Apple stock down by $1.71….
I’d like to see some accountability for guys like this. If Apple reveals earnings that are over his stated expected numbers, why can’t I sue the sh1t out of him for driving the price down.
Investor: “Get your broker’s number on speed dial. Looks like a great opportunity for you to buy is coming up.”
LOL….didn´t you and others say that at $85 and all the way down?
Apple “could” blow everybodys expectations away with stellar sales, and then of course the stock will drop like a rock, the typical knee jerk reaction before the inevitable run up and subsquent slow meltdown followed by….
Apple “could” do a lot of things… Microsoft “could” drop Windows and go with OS X – Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.
Apple hasn’t announced any product changes, hasn’t actually cut back shipping, hasn’t done anything – That means I get to talk out of my ass because no one can prove me wrong.
…looks likely for AAPL before an upturn.
Murder Junkie posted this on Feb. 7. 2006:-
“AAPL – Short term –> down possibly below $50.00 AAPL – Long Term –> It will NEVER hit $100.00 NEVER. GOOG (Google) – Start selling short baby……… I am not a stock analyist – these are just my opinions based on what I have gleaned from the market over the years.”
I kept this post because I thought it was going to be quite wrong.
I wish now I had believed him.
Well done Murder Junkie! You’re about the only one who got it right!
Sigh.. I gotta get one of these jobs!
Analysts spreading the FUD once more.
If you are a day-trader type, you dump and buy all the time – and pay lots of taxes on your earnings, and lose money when you have no profits – in short, you go broke.
Analysts talk out of one side of their pie-hole, while they watch the stock tank and continue to scoop it up for their customers…
Holding or doubling up on AAPL makes complete sense.
Apple has three major growth markets on the horizion which can only add to their bottom line, even if they are not the major players in the markets they enter.
1. Cellular industry. Apple has large scale potential to enter this industry and gain a size-able chuck of the market. Even 10% in this field would be a huge share for a newcomer such as Apple.
2. Livingroom. Apple again should have the upper hand in dominating a livingroom/movie service hub.
3. iPod movie service. While related to the livingroom, this service should come onboard this fall with new iPods.
All three are new revenue and profit centers for Apple. Couple these new markets with growing Mac sales, and dumping Apple because an analyst has hidden motives is simply foolish.
And the other shoe falls. The absolute beginning of the end for beleagered Apple. Take Charko’s advice and short the living daylights out of this pig of a stock. Beleagered Apple can’t sell computers and nobody wants the iPod anymore. Beleagered Apple is no longer the darling of the computer world as anyone can make a computer that runs windows. The public is done overpaying for hardware and software and is switching over to Dell and HP for their computing needs. It will be fun to see beleagered Apple go down like the titanic over the next 8-12 months.
All Apple needs to do here is release a widescreen video ipod and the world will go nuts. It’s not rocket science and something Apple could do at the drop of a hat- a VERY enviable position for a company to be in. That’s why I am invested and holding. However, if earnings are short and Apple does not release the Vpod, expect hell to pay.
So does this entire company require ONE GUY at the top to do all of the thinking??
Apple is late into the “living room”
Apple has no mobile OS.
Apple has very limited hardware offerings — a few consumer and a few professional options, but not what the marketplace needs.
Apple has no presence in emerging markets
Apple’s non-US market expansion is weak.
The iPod campaign did well, now it’s stale.
APPLE is now a much, much, larger company, it’s doubled in profits, yet the actual output is still the SAME OLD APPLE approach. Something’s gotta change.
Mac Realist:
Tell a lie, make it a big one, and repeat it over and over and people will start to believe you.
Difference will be perception and reality.
The perception is that iPod sales are slowing their growth rate (note not overall increase in sales year on year).
The reality is that Mac sales will take a lot of that slack up and increase revenue in addition to iPod sales. The traditional lag between announcing and shipping new macs has not happened which means supply and demand are close to being in balance.
If not this quarter then next quarter Apple will likely post very good numbers on Mac sales, which will easily match any shortfall on iPod sales.
No-one is also figuring what is happening with iTMS either. Whilst it has minimal margins it does have potential to increase revenue by over $1 billion a year.
My bet (and I’m in the same boat) is to hold on to aapl becuase the mac pipeline is great and new ipod products will be out before Xmas.
If you’ve got the cash buy shares now or after the results on the 19th becuase they are very cheap.
Dammit! I hurt myself again rolling my eyes so far back into my head!
/stupid analysts.
Apple’s stock is going DOWN!!
Why? Because they are switching to Intel processors which every other PC in the world has.
If Apple comes out with a Cell processor based Mac Pro and X-Serves, be prepared for the stock to skyrocket.
Apple needs to move hardware and Mac OS X alone is not enough, new and better price for performance processors will move a lot more hardware.
There are plenty of customers out there that will buy thousands of Mac Pro’s and X-Serves at one time.
MDN Word: “wanted” Wanted, Dead or Alive: Steve Ballmers replicated head on a platter.
“CSFB Analyst: Apple could warn on 4th quarter profit and revenue”
Since the 4th quarter is in the future, yes they could. They could also:
Buy Dell
Merge with Intel
Bring back the Newton
Fire The Steve
etc., etc., etc.
WTF?
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iPod limited to those that have computer and fast internet connection and a credit card to buy iTunes downloads….those stiff requirements kill off about 99% of the world market. (The sony walkman was a huge success because one just needed a tape or Cd to enjoy the music….just about anyone could own one.)
The market saturates quickly with those that want an MP3 player.
Without huge iPod growth and sales Apple is in a weak position.
Neil,
I believe you’re right when you write:
“If not this quarter then next quarter Apple will likely post very good numbers on Mac sales.”
All my research – on and off line – shows that the Macbooks are selling extremely well in every country. The other Macs are also doing well.
A lot of analysts are concentrating on the iPod, which I believe is a mistake.
If it doesn’t become apparent to them this June quarter, then it will after the September quarter.
On top of that, profits from the Apple Stores and the iTunes Store are increasing exponentially.
Dynamic Mesh:
“If Apple comes out with a Cell processor based Mac Pro and X-Serves, be prepared for the stock to skyrocket.
Apple needs to move hardware and Mac OS X alone is not enough, new and better price for performance processors will move a lot more hardware.”
I guess you have not seen this:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060712-7248.html
of note: “The much vaunted Cell processor, for instance, appears to be a low-yield wonder. Tom Reeves, VP of semiconductor and technology services at IBM, openly admitted that only one of every five Cell CPUs rolling out of their fabs is fully functional with regards to all eight Synergistic Processing Elements.”
Additionally, various boards on the ‘net have already hashed out the reasons why Cell is not the best option as a general purpose processor.
Now stop spewing garbage before you check out what is really going on in the world.