CSFB Analyst: Apple could warn on 4th quarter profit and revenue

“Apple Computer Inc. could warn that its fourth-quarter profit and revenue may fall short of Wall Street expectations, as it cuts back on shipments of its iPod digital music player ahead of a new version, an analyst said on Wednesday,” Reuters reports.

“Apple shares slipped to an 9-month low after Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Robert Semple said he expects Apple, whose iPod device dominates the market for digital music and MP3 players, to forecast revenue of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion, shy of the $4.9 billion seen by Reuters Estimates,” Reuters reports.

Reuters reports, “Semple added that Apple could forecast a quarterly profit of 50 cents a share, short of analysts’ view of 52 cents a share. ‘We expect Apple will once again use the September quarter to reduce iPod inventories as the company prepares for a refresh of its product lineup, which we continue to believe will occur in the Sept/Oct time frame,’ he said in a note to clients.

Full article here.

Related article:
Apple to hold Q3 06 Quarterly Earnings Call on July 19 – July 05, 2006


  1. Unfortunately, I don’t disagree with the numbers. Based on some other research I’ve seen, it looks like AAPL might miss earnings. That said, I’m still LONG on AAPL. If it drops post earnings (next week), I plan on picking up a few hundred shares.

    Knowing that it may drop, why am I holding AAPL? because I believe that they are in an overall upwards growth. This was the pain year. The transition was not painless (from the stock point of view), but the products are great. Once the transition is complete, the stock should improve.

    Get your broker’s number on speed dial. Looks like a great opportunity for you to buy is coming up.

  2. Gregg Thurman where are you?
    Just a couple of weeks ago you were predicting Apple at over $70 by July 21 – based on fantastic 4th quarter profit and revenue advice.
    I bet my house on your stock picking prognosticating here!

    Meanwhile Apple stock down by $1.71….

  3. Apple “could” blow everybodys expectations away with stellar sales, and then of course the stock will drop like a rock, the typical knee jerk reaction before the inevitable run up and subsquent slow meltdown followed by….

  4. Apple “could” do a lot of things… Microsoft “could” drop Windows and go with OS X – Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

    Apple hasn’t announced any product changes, hasn’t actually cut back shipping, hasn’t done anything – That means I get to talk out of my ass because no one can prove me wrong.

  5. Murder Junkie posted this on Feb. 7. 2006:-

    “AAPL – Short term –> down possibly below $50.00
AAPL – Long Term –> It will NEVER hit $100.00 NEVER.
GOOG (Google) – Start selling short baby………
I am not a stock analyist – these are just my opinions based on what I have gleaned from the market over the years.”

    I kept this post because I thought it was going to be quite wrong.
    I wish now I had believed him.

    Well done Murder Junkie! You’re about the only one who got it right!

  6. If you are a day-trader type, you dump and buy all the time – and pay lots of taxes on your earnings, and lose money when you have no profits – in short, you go broke.

    Analysts talk out of one side of their pie-hole, while they watch the stock tank and continue to scoop it up for their customers…

    Holding or doubling up on AAPL makes complete sense.

    Apple has three major growth markets on the horizion which can only add to their bottom line, even if they are not the major players in the markets they enter.

    1. Cellular industry. Apple has large scale potential to enter this industry and gain a size-able chuck of the market. Even 10% in this field would be a huge share for a newcomer such as Apple.

    2. Livingroom. Apple again should have the upper hand in dominating a livingroom/movie service hub.

    3. iPod movie service. While related to the livingroom, this service should come onboard this fall with new iPods.

    All three are new revenue and profit centers for Apple. Couple these new markets with growing Mac sales, and dumping Apple because an analyst has hidden motives is simply foolish.

  7. And the other shoe falls. The absolute beginning of the end for beleagered Apple. Take Charko’s advice and short the living daylights out of this pig of a stock. Beleagered Apple can’t sell computers and nobody wants the iPod anymore. Beleagered Apple is no longer the darling of the computer world as anyone can make a computer that runs windows. The public is done overpaying for hardware and software and is switching over to Dell and HP for their computing needs. It will be fun to see beleagered Apple go down like the titanic over the next 8-12 months.

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