According to new market research reports by Computer Industry Almanac, in the first 30 years of the PC industry, from 1975 to 2004, cumulative PC sales surpassed 1.4B units. In the next five years, 2006 through 2010, cumulative PC sales will reach 1.3B units or nearly as much as the first 30 years. Cumulative PC sales reached nearly 130M units in 1990, over 1.6B in 2005 and are forecasted to top 2.9B in 2010.
The leading PC companies have changed considerably in the last 20 years as seen in the next table. Until the early 1990s Apple or IBM was the worldwide leader in PC unit sales. Since 1994 Compaq, Dell or HP have been the leader in PC unit sales.
Dell’s 5-year PC unit sales have grown from 5M+ during 1991-95 to 42M from 1996 to 2000 and to 133M PCs during 2001-05. Further growth to 246M units is forecasted for the next 5-year period. HP is a strong second and could do better if its current PC growth continues. Lenovo with its IBM acquisition will remain #3 in the next five years.
The Worldwide PC report has yearly sales for desktop and mobile PCs for the USA and six regions of the world from 1990 to 2011. The report also has sales estimates and projections for eight leading PC manufacturers.
Computer Industry Almanac publishes market research reports for the PC, Smartphone, and Internet industries. For more information see http://www.c-i-a.com
Of course, the Computer Industry Almanac isn’t staffed by soothsayers and there’s no way to measure wide-ranging variables. For one example: the “twofer” effect of Mac OS X Leopard’s ability to run all major applications (Mac OS X and Windows) on the personal computer industry.
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Needham: Apple’s Mac market share could rocket to 9-percent if Intel-based Macs ran Windows apps – March 08, 2006
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Why buy a Dell when Apple’s Intel-based computers will run both Mac OS X and Windows? – June 08, 2005
This is guestimation at its best. At the consumer level, the tides have aleady turned…we just can’t see it yet.
These numbers are skewed (or screwed).
They have Dell with an increase of 185% period over period (2006-2010 over the 2001 – 2005 period) and Apple with an increase of 192% over the same periods.
I don’t believe it! Apple will do much better than this projection!
Interesting… Apple has remained constant as the rest of the PC industry has grown. Nothing wrong with consistancy
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Anyway, I’m expecting more than 33 million.
Word
Face
That sounds a bit conservative although moderate growth in Market share is a good thing for both the market and for Apple. If Apple grows too fast, it will suffer in quality and in price (supply and demand).
Now with that said, I think they are greatly underestimating the MacBook and college students.
Apple’s unit share of the market from 2001-2005 is 2.1%
For the 2006-2010 period, Apple’s share is predicted to rise to a stratospheric 2.5%.
(Apple likely has a larger share of the dollars due to the fact it’s product mix is more expensive.)
Who would’ve predicted Dell’s performance 5 years ago?
Who would have predicted Apple would still be so small? (Answer–not this group!)
33 million?!?
Alright, who hacked my computer and saw my projected Mac purchases over the next 5 years…
How come the rest of you MacHeads out there aren’t going to be purchasing any Macs? Why is it just me?
“For one example: the “twofer” effect of Mac OS X Leopard’s ability to run all major applications (Mac OS X and Windows) on the personal computer industry.”
Do you know something we don’t, or are you merely specualating and not stating it?
gateway is going to sell almost as many computers as apple in the next 5 years?!
mw = “food” as in, if this prediction is food for thought then my brain is going to barf.
The same site has a link http://www.c-i-a.com/pr0506.htm to the number of PCs in use world wide.
There are 904 million PCs in use world wide as of 2005.
Apple claims “nearly” 15 million users of OS X world wide http://www.apple.com/macosx/applications/
So Apple’s installed base is 15/904 = 1.7%. This explains the low Safari numbers.
What’s even more sobering is that in his 1997 Macworld address in Boston where he introduced the new board, Steve Jobs claimed nearly 25 million Mac users.
So the bottom line is the platform is not growing. “Halo-effect” claims notwithstanding.
I love my Mac(s) and I’ve been reading MDN since 2002. Can’t tell you how many claims I’ve seen of a major gain in market share “just around the corner.” We’re small and we’re gonna stay small. The company is healthy nonetheless.
apple is the next sony
is THAT bad ???
AAPL is still not a bargain, to many americans own it. which means to much preasure.
Technology stocks = bad.
Go with Food stocks
People NEED food.
they DONT NEED an imac or an ipod.
No matter what numbers are dreamed up for Apple’s sales, they will still be at the bottom the barrel.
This is simple math based on past numbers. As MDN take says, there are some variables that can dramatically modify a trend or a linear regression forecast. Let’s see how the increasing buzz around the abillity of apple hardware to run whatever we want impact on future sales.
MDN: “…the “twofer” effect of Mac OS X Leopard’s ability to run all major applications (Mac OS X and Windows) on the personal computer industry.”
Well at least MDN is finally happily promoting Windows to all us Apple users. Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer thank you. (MDN, Maybe you need to squeeze in another ad somewhere here for people that need to buy a copy of windows for the Mac…)
You finally got Windows XP running on your new MacBook and you are enjoying right, MDN?
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Amazing those stats on where Dell went to where they are now and Apple just can´t sell anymore computers – same amount every period measured.
There must be the same 16+ million apple users that keep Apple in business.
Once a market is established and mature not much can change it. Apple will always have the market share it has unless some outside third force changes it.
Steve needs to diversify Apple more…but he can´t seem to figure out a new product. (The ipod is now 5 years old?)
Apple will hit at least 4.5% worldwide share (8.5% US share) over this period. Intel MacBooks + Leopard + UB Pro Apps = marketshare gains.
Jake
Apple to remain at 2.5% world wide in the next 4 years.
I call bullshit on that prediction.
Unless, of course, that most new computers sold in the next four years are $150 computers sold primarily in Asia and Africa.
Can’t see that happening.
Meanwhile, Apple stock dropped another $2.24…..
down 33% this year? yikes.
wherez that over $100 mdn and other stock geniuses here were predicting???
glooom
Wow, have all the Mac users left this site? Why is it so utterly, absolutely FILLED with WIndows trolls today?
Oh, that’s right, I forgot — Mac users are actually getting things done. And not ripping off their employer’s time at work. Like Windows users do. Just like they rip off all their software.
Anywaty, trends are extremely difficult to decipher. There’s no allowance in the data from this article, for example, to quantify the fact that Macs now run Windows in a myriad of ways. Often better than Windows boxes themselves. And since Apple makes a large percentage of its profit from hardware, over the next 2-3 years that ability to run Windows will be huge.
Well, back to work now. As a Mac user I gotta actually, you know, PAY for the software I use — so I need to earn a real income with my computer.
As for you Windows users, you probably only log off to make sure your welfare/WIC/unemployment/insert-other-government-handout-here check has arrived. Which explains why there’s so many of you jealous drones here today.
Apple claims “nearly” 15 million users of OS X world wide
Steve Jobs claimed nearly 25 million Mac users.
There is a large install base of Mac’s still on OS 9, mostly in the graphic industry. In fact my local newspaper still uses OS 9 at the classified section.
The software is there, the machines work and they don’t see the need to upgrade both hardware and software just to run Mac OS X.
Safari is a Mac OS X program, there is no OS 9 version. Any OS 9 machines online are running IE.
So the installed Mac base is closer to 2.77% if you divide 25/904.
However I suspect the installed base is higher that 25 million, because Steve gets his numbers by how many Mac’s call Apple over the internet. Since many Mac’s are just dumb terminals on LAN’s, the 25 million figure could be substancially higher.
Yep, no growth in unit sales for Apple for the last decade, but I tell you, it’s about to turn around and grow 100%. really, truly honestly I beleive that.
MDN Predictions with OS X launch, Windows users will see the light and switch.
MDN Predictions with Intel transtion, Windows users will see the light and switch.
MDN Prediction now it seems with Leopard, Windows users will see the light and switch.
Yep, sadly it seems to be just those same core users replacing machines.
But at least now that the Mac can be an Intel/Windows PC, Steve has seen the light and switched.
More math, there are still a lot of OS 9 users who make up the 25 million. And Safari’s share is over 3%, making the Mac installed base on the Internet closer to 4 or 5%.
Wishful thinking episode 1:
“There is a large install base of Mac’s still on OS 9, mostly in the graphic industry. In fact my local newspaper still uses OS 9 at the classified section.”
This accounts for the 10 million drop? There are 10 million OS 9 users out there in the graphic industry??
Wishful thinking episode 2:
“So the installed Mac base is closer to 2.77% if you divide 25/904”
OK so none of the 40% of Mac users in 1997 who didn’t adopt OS X haven’t gone anywhere. Hmmm…even with that reach, the number is still pretty low, isn’t it?
And didn’t Steve say a while back that the transition was complete? Ouch.
Wishful thinking episode 3:
“However I suspect the installed base is higher that 25 million, because Steve gets his numbers by how many Mac’s call Apple over the internet. Since many Mac’s are just dumb terminals on LAN’s, the 25 million figure could be substancially (sic) higher.”
I almost spilt my drink laughing at that one! That was great!!
Neither Gateway nor NEC will be near Apple’s numbers over the 2006-2010 period. Nor will Apple be at a mere 33M in that period. While I suspect Dell and HP/Compq will score fewer sales than predicted, there’s no reason to believe either will drop out of the Top Three.
I don’t know what these folks are basing their guesstimates on, but I’ll take money on my rather loosely phrased predictions.
Cont me in to buy a new MacPro.