Tech Pundit Enderle: ‘fourth quarter should be ugly for Apple’

To explain why Apple won’t be cracking the enterprise market anytime soon, Rob Enderle writes for TechNewsWorld, “It doesn’t matter what Apple does to the product. Until the company can address the need for a multi-year roadmap that businesses can refer to, get a stable platform that will be deployable over a long period of time, and designate multiple hardware vendors clients can bid against one another to ensure the lowest price (as well as to avoid getting nailed by internal audit), enterprises simply won’t buy Apple broadly.”

Our Take: Enderle’s right: Apple probably won’t be offering multi-year roadmaps and offering Macs through multiple vendors. That’s simply not how Apple does business. Apple seems to understand that this is what enterprise customers would want and is clearly unwilling to take such steps to woo that business. Apple’s focus lies elsewhere. If enterprise clients have people on staff that can see what they can do with Apple’s Mac OS X Server, XServe G5, Xserve RAID, XSan, and other such products, more power to them; otherwise, it’s off to Dell.com for them. Apple isn’t shooting for the enterprise market, so you can’t criticize them for not offering what enterprise clients want. It’s like criticizing Lexus for not selling dump trucks:

“It doesn’t matter what Lexus does to the product. Until the company can address the need for a multi-ton dump truck that businesses can drive, get a stable drivetrain that will be deployable over a long period of time, and designate multiple heavy equipiment vendors [that] clients can bid against one another to ensure the lowest price (as well as to avoid getting nailed by internal audit), earthmoving enterprises simply won’t buy Lexus broadly.” See how smart we are? Hey, look at us, we’re “Automotive Pundits” now!

Enderle then goes on to explain a comment from a previous article, “One other thing: Several folks questioned my comment that Apple demand was dropping like a rock and referred to past sales performance to refute this. Demand is measured by surveys of buying intent and I rely on surveys done for the financial firms who follow Apple. Unfortunately I don’t have the rights to share the results. But the financial reports you have seen are based on sales before Apple announced the Intel move — and the impact of that development won’t show up in the financial reports until after this quarter ends. If the studies are to be believed, the fourth quarter, in particular, should be ugly for Apple. Granted, forward-looking studies are often unreliable, but the study I’m now using did accurately predict that last quarter would be very strong.”

Full article here.
It sounds like Enderle is referring not to Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter (Q4 05) which ends on September 25, 2005, but the fourth quarter of 2005 (Oct. 1 – Dec. 31, 2005). We’ll be very interested to see if Apple’s Mac demand “drops like a rock” during 2005’s holiday shopping season. If it does, we’ll gladly credit Enderle for breaking the news.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Enderle: ‘Surveys indicate demand for Apple’s products is dropping like a rock’ due to Intel switch – August 01, 2005

48 Comments

  1. My predictions:

    Q4: Apple announces Dual Core Power Macs at Apple expo Paris – causing sales of Macs to showw positive growth over Q3.

    Q1: Apple updates eMac and iMac (in October) – gives holiday shoppers a refreshed batch of consumer systems to drool over and buy. Higher sales than Q4.

    Status of PowerBook: limbo (meaning unknown if Apple will update PowerBooks before Jan (my expectations for Intel-PowerBooks) – this will have an unknown effect of unit sales for Apple; iBook will compensate for some sales.

    Net effect: Overall unit sales up in both quarters; PowerBooks sales down (though we don’t know how much). Oh, and Enderle will be wrong – big surprise there. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”tongue rolleye” style=”border:0;” />

  2. does anyone track his predictions with any accuracy? is he batting 70%? 50%? 5%? if his prognostications can clearly be shown to be way off the mark, then he can be exposed as a fraud, or conversely recognized as a pundit. just because he says things people don’t like to hear doesn’t necessarily make him wrong. only his percentage of correct analysis will define him. and if he’s soooo wrong, we can all chip in a buy him a crystal ball and a 900 number.

  3. MDN please stop reporting what this guy says. He’s an idiot and he probably gets more page hits from the stories you post here.

    It just proves that any idiot with two fingers and a keyboard can be a so-called ‘expert’.

    BTW, if anyone wants to see how doomed Apple is, go to a retail store. After it takes 15 minutes to pay for something because they are so frickin busy, then come back and report the bad news.

  4. This guy is simply a Mac hater and probably gets a piece of Microsofts profits. He makes no sense at all and knows nothing about what Apple does. And it looks like he will never get a clue in my opinion.

  5. Rob Enderle of “The Enderle Group.” Same as Fred of “Fred’s Bank.”

    Hello, I’m Rog of “The Rog Group,” pleased to meet ya. Wanna buy an uninformed quote to back up whatever stupid premise and ideology you’re pushing in your latest crappy article? I’m your man!

  6. You don’t need a “survey of buying intent” to know that sales of the models of Apple computers expected to first make the jump to Intel processors will drop significantly just before the new models are introduced. It’s simple common sense.

    What really worried analysts was if there would be an immediate drop in sales; which didn’t happen. Everyone (except for trolls with agendas) heaved a sigh of relief and knew that the transition was going to be relatively smooth.

    Enderle was caught in a lie; and is trying his best to cover up his mess.

    We can all expect the coming months, which are sure to be turbulent, to be filled with Enderle’s attempts to get hits by saying all sorts of nonsense. Be prepared to have every negative amplified beyond reason and all positives ignored.

  7. His article is loaded with very few relevant facts and an awful lot of apparent wishful thinking on his part. As MDN says, we shall wait and see, but if Enderle is wrong (as he usually is), I highly doubt we’ll see any kind of acknowledgement of that fact coming from him…

  8. I hereby resolve to only refer to Enderle as the Fudmeister from now on.

    Please don’t give any traffic to the Fudmeister’s site – that is what he is trolling for.

    If I had the free time, I would consider starting a site called fudmeister.com – I would post previous articles and the truth to refute them. I would not provide any links to his site though.

  9. Good old Rob. He is a marketing expert and he is right when he says that Apple will sell didly squat to Enterprise in the fourth quarter. That’s what he said. What he fails to mention is that Apple sells didly squat to enterprise every quarter.

    Apple’s big target is consumers and they are increasing those sales BIG TIME every quarter.

    Just Rob’s way of pumping FUD into the market for Apple gear and being right in his predictions at the same time.

  10. I still don’t understand the big anticipated jump to mactel. I do very fine, thank you, with my PPC and programs designed by Apple and other Mac vendors. I don’t play video games on my Mac.

    I just work and do so quite smoothly. If I needed a new computer now I’d jump at a new dual PPC Mac. The problem with getting a new dual PPC is my old G4 400 works great! One of these days I’ll even upgrade to Tiger.

    Panther still kicks butt!

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