Analysts don’t see Apple’s Intel switch dimming ‘iPod Halo Effect’

“Industry watchers have noticed a ‘halo’ surrounding Apple Computer’s iPod: The popular music player is helping to bring new users to the company’s Macintosh line of computers,” Daniel Drew Turner writes for eWeek. “However, could the uncertainty surrounding the Mac’s upcoming switch from PowerPC to Intel processors take the shine off that halo?”

Turner writes, “‘There is a halo effect, leading to a definite increase in Mac sales, but it’s much broader than the iPod,’ said Joe Wilcox, an analyst for New York-based Jupiter Research of Jupitermedia Corp. ‘If there’d been any downward sales pressure, it’d have been in the first calendar quarter of 2005.’ This, he said, was the test for the iPod: whether it would be, in Wilcox’s words, ‘a blown-out supernova, or whether it had reached iconic status.’ Wilcox said, ‘I would be surprised if the [Intel] transition has any impact on Mac sales in the short term. In fact, the opposite might be the case.'”

“Ted Schadler, a vice president and principal analyst at Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research Inc., agreed that it was too early to analyze hard data about sales behavior in response to Apple’s Intel switch.,” Turner reports. “Still, Schadler said, there are other factors driving Mac sales, which saw 35 percent growth year-over-year. ‘There’s a fear factor,’ Schadler said, ‘with Windows suffering brutally from virus and spyware attacks.’ He added, ‘I’m surprised they’re not selling more Macs.'”

“‘We do see some misunderstanding’ about the Intel transition, Don Mayer of Small Dog Electronics said. ‘But frankly, people don’t care what processor is in a machine. They care about the software and what it allows them to do. What I’d like Apple to do is lie. Say the new Macs are not coming until next summer, but then pop them out in January.'”

Full article here.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple’s pending Intel switch not hurting PowerPC-based Mac sales – July 25, 2005
Report: Apple to benefit from Intel chip switch; Mac sales on the rise – July 13, 2005
Apple Specialists expect new Intel-based Macs to bring more business users to Mac platform – July 12, 2005
RealMoney: Apple’s iPod Halo Effect ‘quite profound,’ Macs taking good market share from Wintel – June 27, 2005
Intel-based Macs running both Mac OS X and Windows will be good for Apple – June 10, 2005

20 Comments

  1. “‘But frankly, people don’t care what processor is in a machine. They care about the software and what it allows them to do. What I’d like Apple to do is lie. Say the new Macs are not coming until next summer, but then pop them out in January.'”

    There’s nothing to stop that from happening. Steve only said that they intend to have Mactels on sale by ‘this time next year’ (meaning WWDC 06) and the press release says “Apple to Use Intel Microprocessors Beginning in 2006”.

    2006 starts in January…draw your own conclusion.

    Me, I say MWSF 06. Starts January 9.

  2. To be honest, I don’t think lying is necessary. The vast majority of people out there don’t follow Macs religiously, so they probably have no idea about the Intel switch. Plus, those that do know most likely don’t understand. My parents for example, didn’t know. When I told them, they had no idea what it means. That’s how most are; because most people are your average ma and pa who don’t know why Macs and PCs are different.

    So the Intel announcement won’t hurt sales except among the Mac faithful. Kind of sad, huh?

  3. I read the whole article. Pretty good and surprisingly accurate overall for a change. Now this is the second time I have heard mentioned that Apple may in fact be being deliberately pessimistic on their projected release dates of the Intel Macs in order to avoid a dead period in sales right before the new release.

    I must say it might make sense for Apple to do this. The only reason I could see that it might not be a good idea to do this would be because it might not allow the developers enough time to have the Intel Mac version Universal Binary ready. But if the re-compiling is as easy to do as Steve said in his keynote then this should not be a problem.

  4. I think Apple is already read to switch, they are probably just waiting for some pre-defined tipping point to be reached. Once enough key 3rd party apps are running natively on the Intel Macs Apple will put the new Macs on the store shelves. In fact I think Apple has been ready to switch for years, they have just been waiting for the stars to align just right.

  5. And if a Mac faithful is going to switch to windows because of this switch than they aren’t as intelligent as the reports say we Mac users are!!!

  6. Turner writes:

    “I’m surprised they’re not selling more Macs.”

    Well, I’m not surprised. A Mac Mini without an affordable Apple LCD option, a freaking one-button mouse, absolutely NO MAC ADVERTISING to speak of, the paradigm switch to Intel, and slow speeds (even on a G5 iMac, which I have), lack of software, and nothing to tantalize gamers.

    I hope this will all change over the next year. I’m sick of hearing about iPods and iTunes only. 2006 Must be about the Mac!!!!

  7. It seems that the ‘iPod Halo Effect’ is exactly what Apple needed to overcome the so-called ‘Osborne Effect’ If the new ‘switchers’ can take up the slack in sales until the Intel/Macs hit the streets. Apple can make the change seamlessly.

    The stars may well be aligned.

  8. I agree with iMaki– I’ve wondered whether Steve is actually inetersted in growing Apple much bigger, or if the current state of profitability is enough to keep him satisfied.

    I personally enjoy believing there is a personal grudge-match thing between him and Bill. I’d love to hear Steve stand on stage and say something like, “Checkmate” to M$ one day as he unveils his power move. I’d gladly wet myself. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”tongue rolleye” style=”border:0;” />

  9. Why would any of the Mac faithful switch to Windows? For a start switch to a vastly inferior botched OS.

    Perhaps the idea of joining the diminishing majority in jumping with fear and rushing to their computers to ensure that they hadn’t contracted the latest virus announced in the TV news sounds like an exciting weekend spent cleaning out your PC instead of a round of golf or other leisure persuit

    Or perhaps wiping your C:/ drive clean every weekend and reinstalling all your applications sounds like a fun way to enjoy your freetime rather than playing your favorite online game.

    Windows and its users deserve every bit of what they get, the hackers, breakers and crackers. After all if Windows hadn’t been so poorly put together in the first place none of this would have happened.

    Don’t forget Bill Gates is a Mac fan himself, uses them at his home and in his personal office space. Sure he’d love to come out and say what trash his OS is, because if he did it’d take more than his net worth to survive the aftermath of lawsuits from all over the world, not just from commercial businesses of all sizes but governments too with enough clout to just seize Microsoft assets held in their respective country.

    Just keep paying him his annual license fee like brainless idiots most Windows users are. I for one will not nor will ever take a Windows user seriously and will and do treat them like idiots. As for those users that use cracked versions of windows, just look at how the music business went through P2P sites and users.

    Longhorn became Gonehorn, Vista= Virus Infections Spyware, Trojans and Adware.

    In closing Windows doesn’t have more applications than the Mac. What Windows does have is legacy apps still kicking around on older versions that don’t work on XP. Mac users are more productive in their workflow, use more of their apps rather than one bought then installed and never more than twice before being left there taking up HD space as is the case on Windows machines.

  10. in response to imaki…
    a- buy a different brand lcd monitor if u cant afford an apple… duh..
    b-buy a nice 3-button microsoft mouse.. atleast they can get those right… i do agree though that apple needs to make their own 3-button mice..
    c-the switch to intel doesnt mean very much to the average comp user..
    d-ive never used a G5 that was slow as u put it.. ive managed over 50 macs, g4s and g5s, imac, powermac, emac, laptops.. if you know what ur doin and know how to maintain them properly, properly install apps and os, etc… you should have no quams about slowness.. (unless your on g4 400 then i could agree..)
    e-lack of software.. give me a break.. do some research.. theres some incredible applications that are mac-only i.e. shake (well linux too)
    f-gamers… have you ever played spiderman or unreal on a g5.. best gaming experience ive ever had… (with a good video card of course)

    in summary.. apple is not perfect.. but theyre getting there.. the intel switch is only going to make things better for apple and its customers.. lets all get behind apple and supprt them.. because what it all comes down to is the more people that own macs.. the more money apple makes and the more they can afford to lower prices ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
    although i do love the fact that all my friends have windows pcs and always bitch about them… i just sit there with a smile and say.. shouldve bought a mac!

  11. Okay it’s C:\, but that don’t make Windows and better and boy am I glad I swtiched in ’98 even as a closet Mac user way before then and kept up with the technology through mac magazines, they were way too expensive like $10,000 back then in the early to mid 1990’s. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”tongue rolleye” style=”border:0;” />

    And yes just as macisgod says help support Apple even as a thankless task to add to that.

    I too have the same good feeling when my Windows based friends end up bitching about the sloppy Windows platform they went with. I keep quiet and wait for them to come to me about their woes.

    As for three button mice, well I happen to be just as fast with keystrokes with my Apple one buttoned mouse. I do have M$ mice too, which are three buttoned and so makes no difference to me.

    Yes Mac’s can use other brands or unbranded hardware, like a Samsung LCD or a Canon scanner. It is this that makes the Mac an attractive prospect instead of Windows along with other aspects of MacOS. Apple can’t make everything and neither can M$, neither of these make CPU’s either.

    Having a common ground with the Apple switch to Intel in my view will help remove a major barrier between the two platforms. Yes AMD launched an antitrust lawsuit agains’t Intel shortly after Apple’s announcement. The speed issue, which so many computer users are fixated on is actually more of a non issue as cycles makes all the difference as Intel’s chips drop these like there’s no tomorrow vs the PowerPC, which has far less losses if none even compared to AMD.

    Yes I hope that Apple will also go to AMD for their chips too, maybe that is in the pipeline.

    Had it been the other way round and Apple gone to AMD I think then it would be Intel taking AMD to court in an antitrust lawsuit, who do you think would win, after all Intel is a bigger company than AMD?

    It is a good thing to have a choice of OS that works for you, if it doesn’t then you’ve got a problem, whether that is Windows or Macintosh even Linux. Leaving issues of antitrust laws alone now, what would you think of a world with nothing but Windows or even a world of nothing but Ford’s or KIA’s? We all know they’re okay, but are in part unreliable too.

    Just as you all know I happen to live in Europe, the UK, with inflated prices by many retailers just for the sake of increasing profits.

    The right time is now to go Mac, yes get a Mac Mini and keep your other hardware investment, even your M$ keyboard, mouse, Sony/Dell monitor and HP/Epson printer as examples. More memory has just been added to the line of Mac Mini’s as a base standard.

    Office 2004 for Mac so far the full retail is around $100 less than it’s Windows counterpart and has more features, like the ability to record sound and attach it to your chosen document as standard and not as an optional $$$ extra as it currently is on Windows.

    As a creative myself I cannot even think of being taken seriously by my peers and fellow colleagues without being on a Mac.

    Quite possible the same if you’re line of work is exclusively Windows based, although the Mac is perfectly capable of performing those same tasks as a business machine too, take accountancy, Sage is a big application on Windows and it has a counterpart on the Mac in the form of Mind Your Own Business, MYOB as in look after your business and the accountancy aspect and MYOB is also on Windows too.

    Go to your local AppleStore or reseller, give the in store Macs a try, maybe ask if you can be given a demonstration at your home too. Give it a try before being critical about it and bemoan it, sure if you don’t like it then, fair enough as with anything not everything is for everyone and the same goes for Windows.

    The Mac evangelists only do so because of misconceptions about the Mac purpetrated by misguided people, they are the one’s whose livelihood depends on the failings of Windows to make money and stay in business, don’t let yourself be fooled into their rhetoric or anyone’s, give the Mac a try before to open your mouths as I’ve written above if you still don’t like it after trying that is fair enough and say so in a balanced view instead of being bitchy.

    It is a choice and a personal one at that, I don’t bitch someone about their choices they make, right or wrong, sure if they came to me for advice and ignored it, good luck to them as they may find out if needs be the hard way and a big hole in their pocket over the longterm. It is non of my business nor any of yours.

  12. I’m afraid the ignorant majority will never know about Mac OS X, iLife etc until it’s thrust in their face by PC clone makers. And it will happen when Apple eventually licenses it out, which is inevitable when Mac margins get too thin.

  13. I agree with you macnut222.

    I think there’ll be new Macs in January. The mini wasn’t updated – it didn’t even get a face-lift, although it’s been about 6 months on the market.

    That’ll be among the first to go Intel, along with the portables.

  14. I agree. Everybody seems to think Macintels won’t ship until late Q2CY06. I listened to the developer’s keynote address several times. SJ chose his words very carefully. “By this time next year.” He did not say “in a year we will start shipping them.” He left the door wide open.

    I expect them to be announced at MWSF 06 and ship later in January. Mac mini for sure. As Charko pointed out, the mini didn’t get a refresh; merely an options/pricing restructuring, and 512Mb min. That in itself is very telling. They didn’t spend the money to refresh it now because they’re gonna be intro-ing an Intel mini in January.

    For those bitching about a one-button mouse: Apple has a patent on the one-button mouse, which is why nobody else offers one. You can plug-in any third party multi-button mouse and it works cause MacOS supports it. For most people, the one-button mouse is less complicated and therefore easier to use. Apple is right to make that their standard offering.

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