“Goldman Sachs maintained an ‘in-line’ rating on Apple Computer, saying it expects little sequential growth from the company’s iPod product, thus putting the growth burden on the company’s Macintosh computers. ‘Based on a series of checks throughout the supply chain, we expect sequential iPod growth to come in lower than what investors have become accustomed to,’ Goldman said. The research firm said Apple’s second-quarter upside should be less than it has been and will have to be driven more by the Mac. However, ‘we see a solid iPod ramp in the back half of the year from new models and expect the MP3 player market to consolidate,’ Goldman said, adding that the shakeout will probably leave only four viable vendors,” Forbes reports. “Goldman said iPod shipments are currently tracking in-line with its 5.35 million unit estimate for the second quarter.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Note: Apple sold 5.311 million iPod units during its fiscal 2005 second quarter ended March 26, 2005 and 4.58 million iPod units during its fiscal 2005 first quarter ended December 25, 2004. In its fiscal 2004 fourth quarter ended September 25, 2004, Apple sold 2.016 million iPod units.
Before the Chicken Little’s come and proclaim death on the iPod, there should be a few notes that should be mentioned:
1 – This is traditionally an off quarter for sales.
2 – How does the rest of the portable music player industry fare? Do they grow at a higher rate, flat-line, or drop sequentially compared to Apple.
3 – Wait until official numbers are released before panicking.
A seasonal leveling-off is understandable, but it does suggest slower growth for the entire market (assuming Apple’s competitors do no better).
BTW, MDN, unit sale increases are only part of the picture–Apple’s revenue from iPods actually declined significantly last quarter compared to the previous quarter, because a substantial portion of sales were the new, lower-priced Shuffles.
I still think the iPod is doing fine, though; there is no data suggesting a market share decline from its astronomically high levels.
This sounds like a reasonable and fair analysis; basically that sales will level off for this quarter but will significantly increase in future quarters, and probably increase even more in market share due to market consolidation. In other words, don’t expect huge profits this quarter, but watch for possibly huge sales/profits in the second half of the year.
True, there hasn’t been any new product (so far) this quarter to juice up sales in a traditionally slow quarter.
Of course, Steve’s WWDC Keynote is next monday…
Nobody will panic off these numbers, believe me. They’ll be a godsend if they come true. Anything over 5.2m iPods will be seen as a great result. Investors aren’t expecting to see much growth, if any in iPod sales this quarter at all. They’re more interested in seeing stability and existing sales sustained at these levels. remember, at this rate, Apple are still selling over 22m iPods a year! Imagine how many iTunes that translates to. THAT’S where the growth will show up. That’s what’s going to impress investors, mac sales aside of course. Personally I think iMac sales are going to be great, but Apple won’t be breaking them out individually the way they used to. We’ll just get overall “desktop sales” and “laptop sales” numbers.
Anyone hear how the Mac Mini is doing? last I heard it was not faring so well and sales had slowed down substantially?
Thank you macnut222 for apologizing for apple.
Kriss- macmini….i heard it too. The shizzle has gone fom da fizzle on dat thang. Doesn´t help that Tiger is so…so. Not a big leap from Panther.
Actually, apps run faster on Panther than Tiger.
I believe that Apple’s computer sales for this June quarter are going to be very good; they’re going to surprise a lot of people.
All the on-line indications I’ve come across – i.e. information from sources where computers are sold – show a real upswing in Mac sales.
“The shizzle has gone fom da fizzle on dat thang”
The mini is selling fine, especially for a first generation machine. Remember how slow iPods were to take off.. it took 2 years to build up a head of steam. Give the mini time, and a few upgrades. Wait ’til its got a low-end G5 in it. In addition, its not selling as fast as some people expected because most ex-PC buyers (40% of new Mac purchasers) are choosing low-end iMac G5s, not Mac Minis, according to several analyst checks. Remember, it doesn’t matter what Mac they buy, so long as they buy one
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” /> In the same way that people are coming in to look at the iPod Shuffle, and buying a iPod Mini because the price difference is only some $50, they’re coming in to look at the mac mini, and buying a 17″ iMac G5 because once you add in a keyboard/mouse + screen etc the iMac is obviously much better value.
As for your comments re: Tiger… I suggest you go and get a Windows PC if you don’t think Tiger is much of an improvement over Panther.. The world of WinTel would definitely suit you better – you’ll notice the differences between OSX and Windows fast enough….
I’m nervous about the default 256Mb RAM shipping with the Mac mini and other consumer Macs. The resulting sluggish performance could leave potential switchers with a bad first impression.
Magic word: “south”. Hopefully not the direction Mac sales will be heading!
Mac sales definitely aren’t headed south, nor are iPod sales. If Apple can maintain sales of over 5 million iPods and over one million Macs during a quarter (April-June) that is typically the industry’s slowest of the year sales wise, then they are doing absolutely great.
I’m not sure what the figures are for Australia exactly, but they would be staggeringly high just from what I see dangling from peoples ears everywhere around me in Brisbane. I tend to count the number of people on my walk to work and 1 in 10 is the figure I worked on a while ago, but now I’d say it’s somewhat higher than that and still growing strong. It’s almost spooky!
It doesn’t really come as a surprise, given Australians are second only to the Japanese for their love of gadgets.
tommyUK sez: “As for your comments re: Tiger… I suggest you go and get a Windows PC if you don’t think Tiger is much of an improvement over Panther.. The world of WinTel would definitely suit you better – you’ll notice the differences between OSX and Windows fast enough….”
Cool, tommy UK, you are recommending people getting a Windows PC. Tommy, Tiger is slower than Panther! Not Tiger is slower than Windows! Time to try a restart of the brain.