“Even the most powerful industrialists with the biggest bets on a particular version of the future can at most influence where things are going. We saw Bill Gates do that recently when he predicted the ultimate demise of the iPod at the hands of mobile phones. Because we’ll eventually all carry phones, Bill argued, and because smarter and smarter phones will do more than just make phone calls, we’ll have no need for an iPod. That’s the impeccable logic of a man who makes mobile phone software and has no horse in the portable music player race. He’s trying to influence the future, not predict it. That’s a subtle difference, I’ll grant you, but it is a difference. And if you’ll look at Bill’s record for predicting the future, it is mainly about influencing, and therefore, hasn’t been very accurate. Mine is better,” Robert X. Cringely writes for PBS.
“It is one thing for a Microsoft, with 95 percent market share (and then some), to try and influence the future, but very much another thing for an Apple, with around two percent. But maybe market share isn’t all that important. I know that Steve Jobs is thinking in terms of his place in history, and he isn’t even remotely satisfied with the current story. Bill Gates once told me that Steve could never win, but Steve doesn’t know that, which is a decided advantage. Apple’s story is an example of seeding technology and having to wait to harvest. IPods help, of course, but there are still 20 times as many personal computers as iPods, so iPod is only part of the story. The bigger part is Apple’s QuickTime, which they’ll be happy to tell you is installed in more than 400 million devices, of which 98 percent are NOT made by Apple,” Cringely writes.
“Microsoft’s vision of the future inevitably has at its center a device that costs at least $250 and averages closer to $500. Apple, as a software-centric maker of consumer electronic devices, can set its device price much lower, say around $125. That’s a market intrinsically four times the size of the one envisioned by Microsoft. We saw this in last week’s column, where it became clear that the endpoint of Apple’s video strategy isn’t a Mac or a PC at all, but a hardware decoder device the size of a pack of cards. That’s a much easier sell, but it has to be backed up with Internet services to make it work,” Cringely writes.
“These Internet services, based on QuickTime, are what Apple has spent so many years building and seeding in the marketplace. Apple doesn’t need to increase Macintosh market share to be successful in the movie download business. Nor do they require a large end-user installed base to be a dominant player in back-end services. Apple’s goal is to remake the entertainment business and so is Microsoft’s, yet in the entertainment industry, where it counts, Apple’s presence is as great or greater than Microsoft’s. This didn’t happen by chance, but is a clear result of Steve Jobs’ attempt to create the future in his own image,” Cringely writes. “Only time will tell if it works.”
Full article with much more and highly recommended here.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Cringely: This week changed the world of high tech forever – May 13, 2005
Now with integrated video support, will Apple’s iTunes soon become iLiving Room? – May 10, 2005
Apple releases iTunes 4.8; now supports QuickTime video along with contact, calendar transfers – May 09, 2005
Are Apple’s ‘iPod’ and ‘Mac mini’ the razors or the blades? – January 28, 2005
Cringely: the full story about Apple Mac mini’s purpose has not yet been told – January 21, 2005
Cringely predicts $249 Macintosh, would make Apple the world’s number one PC company – January 10, 2005
Cringely: is this the beginning of the end for Macintosh hardware? – May 21, 2004
Robert X. Cringely: Steve Jobs ‘is proud of being an a**hole’ – April 30, 2004
PBS columnist: IT hates Macs because ‘Macs reduce IT head count’ – August 15, 2003
Answer: the innovative one.
For those who don’t know which company I’m talking about, go here: http://www.apple.com
My money is on Apple…
They understand the industry more so than any competitor.
It’ll be conrolled by a company which has lots of money and patents, so whoever that it is, will win.
It won’t matter if you have great tech, you’ll have your asses sued off by the guy with the patents and money.
I think Cringely is on to something. H.264 is almost impossible to use outside of a G5 so hardware encoding is necessary for any type of media center, airport express, mac mini to take advantage of H.264. Maybe Apple’s got a hardware encoder coming that connects your iPod to your television. Or maybe it will be on the airport express.
If they put one in the mac mini, it will definitely become the “media center” of choice.
Steve Jobs had all those years to stew and watch as the people at the helm of Apple after his ouster screwed the pooch. Now with him back at the helm, his long term plans are starting to come into play. This is a great time to be a Mac User.
Jeff –
I think you are being short sighted…
H.264 is pretty exclusive to the mac right now, but how long will that last? Much less than a year, I’m sure.
But, there are other reasons why apple could win in the video business; the main one being that the UI will be easy to use for everyone.
They understand the industry more so than any competitor.
—
It’s easy to say, yeah, okay sure. But this statement has never been more poingnant. I mean, MS really has absolutely no clue.
That and they flat-out do not care. Their philosophy is that if we give people everything, we’ll lose a little money and find the answer eventually.
Eventually sometimes takes a couple years and a few billion dollars.
Stockholders can’t be happy about the Xbox thusfar.
They can’t be happy about WMA’s marketshare, or Apple’s for that matter.
Don’t believe the lies: MS’s strategy has nothing to do with ‘BILL’S DREAM’ or Jay ALlard or anyone.. it’s about leveraging Windows.
Remember “Triumph of the Nerds”?
Gates, after MacWorld show “Don’t you get it, Steve? [Having the better product] doesn’t matter!!”
They don’t care if they ever find the answer.. leveraging MSN Messenger and Windows will give them what they want, your money.
The transition has begun. Apple moves from computer manufacturer to “software-centric maker of consumer electronic devices”.
I’m going to incur the wrath of all of you in a minute, but that’s OK.
I think Apple and Dell are very similar companies.
Now, before you freak out, Listen.
Dell rarely leads with new technology. They wait until other manufacturers have sorted out the bugs, then do it as well and cheaper than the competition.
Apple, while they do lead fairly often with new technology, are most successful when they wait and refine. Now, unlike Dell (who makes hardware more desirable by making it cheaper), Apple makes it’s hardware desirable by making it stunning, both in look and performance. Look at the iPod. The iPod wasn’t the first mp3 player on the market. Not by a longshot. Instead, Apple waited. They saw all the crappy designs that first surfaced, and then designed a player that we ALL wanted. You don’t have to be first if you’re best.
Apple can do the same thing with a “media center” type device (whether computer or otherwise). MCE PC’s have been on the market for several years. They haven’t taken off. Why? There’s any number of reasons. People don’t like the GUI. They cost too much. People aren’t ready to have a PC in their living room. Whatever. But Apple doesn’t have to be first, they just have to be best. Too bad they’ve already used iLife, otherwhise I think that’d be a perfect name for their living room contraption.
One small correction to a comment in the article: Microsoft DOES NOT have a 95% share of a market. If the author is referring to the PC market, then the challenge is that there are more operating systems than WINDOWS in this space. Try adding up MacOS, UNIX, LINUX marketshare and then subtract that number from 100. You will be enlightened and suprised to know that Microsoft actual marketshare has dropped significantly over the last 24 months.
Bryan,
You say Dell and Apple are very similar companies and then you point out their differences.
Their only similarity is that they are both successful. They get that success very differently, as you point out.
Just to remind the author: neither Apple nor Micro@#t is in the entertainment business!!! Sony is because it owns Columbia. I can’t believe some ” journalist can write vapor crap out of nothing and BS all the way.
I think kudos should go to Microsoft for making its usually inferior software go so far over the last two decades, purely from a business standpoint, even if has caused frustration to millions of users over the years. But the future is looking bright in tech terms. The firm that is dominating the next multimedia-driven stage of tech is Apple, a firm that will always put the end-user first. Even though its business practices might be unappealing, putting the user first is in Apple’s blood. And if the media companies force Apple to put in too many restrictions, or if Apple decides to put on its own restrictions, then there are just millions of excellent mac and open source programmers to keep things free and Apple honest. I am really looking forward to Apple’s movie store.
I watched Pirates of Silicon Valley for the first time last night. I have a new low opinion of the admittedly agnostic/atheistic Bill Gates. Apple is the best, and Microsoft knows it. I remember Steve Jobs in the movie told Bill Gates, “We’re better than you,” and Bill responded, “you don’t understand, it doesn’t matter.” As history showed us all, Bill was right to an extent. But for those of us who care about more than money, we all hold out hope that the best will ultimately win. In fact, the best has already won. Microsoft is on the decline while Apple is on fire. It ain’t all about money, and that’s the lesson here. I don’t see Microsoft as evil per se, but I do see it as a cold, empty shell with no soul. Apple has plenty of soul, and that’s the type of humanity we all want to be close too. And least I hope so.
You don’t need a G5 to take advantage of plain ole H.264. HD H.264- that’s a different story…
Doesn’t anyone watch the Quick Time State Addresses?
H.264 can be used on tiny screens like cell phones, and huge screens like full 24 ft projectors. The results are jaw dropping. H.264 alone can revolutionize the media world…
Can anyone tell me if any other video software besides quicktime is built upon the H.264 codec? If Quicktime is alone on this, then Apple is unrivaled in this department… the advantage is too great to even predict.
Apples product could be called “stevedore’, a device that moves data in and out.
And Widgets could have been called “Macnets”, to avoid all the Konfabulator fury.
They stick on your desktop like refridgerator magnets.
Steve has a good head start in the entertainment business. Being the leader of the most successful movie company in the business Pixar. Apple is working it’s stradagy as it brings in the latest codecs for quicktime, adds music video downloads to ITMS the most successful music download service. Already has fiber link audio for surround sound. I’m sure there is more to come. Bill better not get to cocky because right now Steve’s running on rails right now where Microsoft is a train wreck.
Hey botox, the iTunes Music Store and the MSN Music Store are in the entertainment business. Or did you not consider Tower Records and Sam Goody’s to be in the entertainment business?
The H.264 hardware encoder/decoder is rumored to be a Broadcom VC02 chip designed by Alphamosaic. Google that set of words to see the page.
Apple’s advantage will be that they will provide the consumer product that people want. No IT-led-backward businesses buying by the thousands to skew the market. Very few people want an $800 MCE PC in the living room. It’s overkill. Most people just want to be able to get their media from the Internet onto the TV, and their TV media stored. And that’s where Apple is headed with the next version of the Airport Express.
One more thing. If the Sony Walkman was part of the entertainment business, then so is the Apple iPod and the Microsoft Xbox.
iMaki… did you read my post? or was that some freakin scary coincidence…
(Pirates Silicon)
HAHA.. I got the title confused with Cringely’s documentary.
Hi Mike,
Pure coincidence we referenced the same Bill Gates line. Great minds do think alike apparently
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great mind my ass
RE: the Windows Media Center and Apple next “big thing”… I still believe Apple & Sony are in cahoots together to make the PS3 have iTunes & Video & PVR capability. I know it’s a long shot for now, but it’s the most ideal way for Apple & Sony to combat Microsoft long term. A great idea for Apple would be to make an interim product for now that deals w/ music, photos, video & etc.