“While Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple has shattered financial expectations in recent months and has seen its stock gain more than fivefold since early 2003, Caris & Co. analyst Mark Stahlman said he believes the limits of the company’s ‘startling’ turnaround success are being tested. ‘… There is a sense that the current enthusiasm might have overrun the realities,’ Stahlman wrote in a research note. ‘Apple has a way of surprising on the upside as well as on the downside.’ He said another iPod-dominated holiday season is unlikely with a wave of new video-game systems expected to flood the electronics market later this year, as well as the launch of several alternatives – both media players and services – to Apple’s iTunes music store, which supports only iPod,” The Associated Press reports.
“Stahlman added that a possible ‘halo’ effect – demand for iPod raising interest in Apple’s computers – could happen, but said differences in how people use computers will maintain the rift between Macintosh and Windows-based machines. The Mac Mini, however, could generate some interest, he noted. ‘We admit that it’s possible,’ Stahlman said of Apple expanding its personal-computer share. ‘But over the past few months, we have become less confident that this is likely.’ Stahlman lowered his rating on Apple to ‘Average’ from ‘Above Average,’ adding that rival Microsoft Corp. will soon reveal a new version of Windows that addresses the operating system’s major security shortcomings,” The Associated Press reports.
MacDailyNews Take: We guarantee that we’ll remember this analyst’s bearish comments and compare it to Apple’s future results. We believe this analyst is in for quite a surprise. Stahlman said, “differences in how people use computers will maintain the rift between Macintosh and Windows-based machines,” whatever that means. Stahlman also seems to define “soon” in an interesting manner when it comes to Longhorn since it is not due to be released until “mid-2006,” according to Microsoft and could be “2007 or later” according to some industry observers. Regardless, corporate uptake of Microsoft’s stripped-down Windows “Longhorn” will be many months and, most likely, years after its release date.
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