“While Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple has shattered financial expectations in recent months and has seen its stock gain more than fivefold since early 2003, Caris & Co. analyst Mark Stahlman said he believes the limits of the company’s ‘startling’ turnaround success are being tested. ‘… There is a sense that the current enthusiasm might have overrun the realities,’ Stahlman wrote in a research note. ‘Apple has a way of surprising on the upside as well as on the downside.’ He said another iPod-dominated holiday season is unlikely with a wave of new video-game systems expected to flood the electronics market later this year, as well as the launch of several alternatives – both media players and services – to Apple’s iTunes music store, which supports only iPod,” The Associated Press reports.
“Stahlman added that a possible ‘halo’ effect – demand for iPod raising interest in Apple’s computers – could happen, but said differences in how people use computers will maintain the rift between Macintosh and Windows-based machines. The Mac Mini, however, could generate some interest, he noted. ‘We admit that it’s possible,’ Stahlman said of Apple expanding its personal-computer share. ‘But over the past few months, we have become less confident that this is likely.’ Stahlman lowered his rating on Apple to ‘Average’ from ‘Above Average,’ adding that rival Microsoft Corp. will soon reveal a new version of Windows that addresses the operating system’s major security shortcomings,” The Associated Press reports.
MacDailyNews Take: We guarantee that we’ll remember this analyst’s bearish comments and compare it to Apple’s future results. We believe this analyst is in for quite a surprise. Stahlman said, “differences in how people use computers will maintain the rift between Macintosh and Windows-based machines,” whatever that means. Stahlman also seems to define “soon” in an interesting manner when it comes to Longhorn since it is not due to be released until “mid-2006,” according to Microsoft and could be “2007 or later” according to some industry observers. Regardless, corporate uptake of Microsoft’s stripped-down Windows “Longhorn” will be many months and, most likely, years after its release date.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
JP Morgan raises estimates for Apple Computer, Inc. – April 11, 2005
Analyst expects Apple to boost guidance on strong iPod sales; shares up in pre-market trading – April 11, 2005
First Albany raises estimates for Apple Computer – April 07, 2005
Goldman Sachs raises estimates for Apple Computer – April 06, 2005
Report: Microsoft Longhorn delayed, may be put off until 2007 – April 05, 2005
Apple’s Mac OS X ‘Tiger’ vs. Microsoft’s Windows ‘Longhorn’ – March 31, 2005
Microsoft to use Apple’s ‘Piles’ in Longhorn? – March 22, 2005
New Microsoft Longhorn chief was former Pepto-Bismol brand manager – March 18, 2005
Report: Early Microsoft Longhorn beta slips – February 18, 2005
Report: Microsoft to release ‘Longhorn beta 1’ by June 2005 – February 07, 2005
Bill Gates: Microsoft ‘working hard’ on Longhorn – ‘won’t be a radical shift’ just ‘an improvement’ – January 29, 2005
Apple CEO Steve Jobs: Mac OS X ‘Tiger’ will ship ‘long before Longhorn’ – January 11, 2005
Thurrott: Apple copying Microsoft’s Longhorn search features with Mac OS X ‘Spotlight’ – December 15, 2004
Microsoft’s Longhorn fantasy vs. Apple’s Mac OS X reality – September 14, 2004
Is Microsoft’s stripped-down ‘Longhorn’ worth waiting for? – September 10, 2004
Microsoft to gut ‘Longhorn’ in attempt to ship in 2006; Avalon faces knife – August 27, 2004
Analyst: Apple’s Mac OS X Tiger ‘going to have quite a lead on Longhorn’ in search technology – July 02, 2004
PC Magazine: Microsoft ‘Longhorn’ preview shows ‘an Apple look’ – May 06, 2004
Caris & what? Who the hell are they?!
One analysts out of how many? Amazing how this one guy can hit APPL when the others are positive about the company. His clients will remember his comments if Apple continues their general trend. At least the guy could have been smart enough to wait for the results on the 13th.
His best line was “adding that rival Microsoft Corp. will soon reveal a new version of Windows that addresses the operating system’s major security shortcomings”. Soon? Secure? I bet the hackers will have contests to see who can get into Longhorn’s pants first.
These guys were late to the party on the wild ride up and are now jumping ship. What does that tell you?
Give me a break! This guy’s become “less confident” over the past few months!. Few months? Talk about vagueness! That’s like Joan Rivers saying she’s become less old over the past ten years! Ohhh, wait a minute. Come to think of it, her face is frozen in time . . .
But who de hell is this guy, Stahlman? And what does “soon” mean in his world, exactly? Tell me Mark — is de sky blue in la-la-land? Yeh-heh-hesssss. No seriously, the funniest part is when he says that the next Windows release will “address the operating system’s major security shortcomings”. Come onnnnn. That’s like saying the next Titanic will have enough lifeboats for most of de passengers! Heh-heh-hehhhh. No, really, I keed — I keed the experts at Caris & Co.
And I poop on Stahlman!
Yea, well, I’m still waiting for the “magic” $50 promised by Piper Jaffrey before xmas.
Caris and Co….what a joke. Wall Street is so pathetic, all these laid off OTC brokers looking for jobs. In this case they set up a new investment bank to peddle thier s***. These guys have no credibility putting out equity research.
Why do they refer to Microsoft as an Apple rival? Microsoft doesn’t make computers or any other electronic device except for X-Box do they?
I ratted this fool out to MDN. The guy is YEARS behind the curve in his comments. It’s obvious he knows nothing about Macs since the introduction of OS X. He knows nothing about the nuances of iPod vs <insert otehr player/game machine>, nor even Apple’s business model for iTunes. The sad part is that unsuspecting amateur day traders will PAY for this crap.
I swear.. reading these things.. I always feel like they’re just trying to get hits…
No one gets hits to a website like Apple.. and these guys are ACTUALLY saying “it’s risky.. the stock could go up or down”
it’s the stock market.. shit!
Check out this report from BBC’s “Click Online” about the state of Windows XP “security”.
http://www.bbcworld.com/content/template_clickonline.asp?pageid=665&co_pageid=3
Brought to you by the MDN Magic word “bad”
Apple simply must come out with some incredible PowerMacs soon and different consumer electronics than the ipod. Stop coasting!
Just so you don’t lose an argument in a silly way…
The “stock abbreviation” for Apple is AAPL. Not APPL, though it seems odd, eh? Regardless, sorry Ken. Just had to point it out. No fault or blame, just a mentioning, alright?
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
Well, “soon” is soon. And less confident means just that. If you can pick a day and price, then do it. The world will make you extremely rich if you could.
But I do think the stock price has run past its realities. This doesn’t mean Apple will have a bad quarter, it just means the stock is priced excessively. For now, anyway.
Apple’s self-generated publicity is a double-edge sword. It gets lots of press relative to its market peers and gets a good boost out of it. But it also means there is lots of speculation which doesn’t translate into a predictable stock price.
As much of a mac fan as I am (and I have notched up a dozen or so converts in the last couple of months), I will say that AAPL stock is wa overvalued. The implicit growth rate in the stock price is 8% to 10% in eternity …. given the compunding effects of such growth it is hard to imagine that this is reasonable.
This is not a stock for those afraid of heights. And that is not to say that the company is not doing an Amazing job and that I will not go out and buy Tiger the day it is released (bugs and all). Just that as an investor that looks to buy when stocks are cheap and sell when they are expensive … I would not be buying right now
But fortune smile on the audacious, so best of luck.
your friendly Java. Magic Word: heavy
Whatever AAPL does the issue will be whether I’ll be 5 times the investment of 4 times at the end of the year.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
java: of course, your 10% rule is correct in the vast majority of cases i.e. mature businessesthat have reached the “cash cow” phase.
However, Apple’s market leadership position in the neophyte music space effectively makes it a hybrid business – partially a mature computer manufacturer, partially a vendor of professional content creation applications for markets that are never slow to get their wallet out when the business case adds up, and partially a vendor of consumer electronics and consumer content.
The last two are the “wildcards” in Apple’s valuation: in the former case nothing Apple is doing is “innovative” per se, but the combination of solid hardware engineering, intuitive software and the QuickTime format gives Apple a great story to tell given the explosion in content creation.
As for the CE element, Apple – like everyone else in this market – is a startup, however AAPL is off to the races with regards to becoming the de facto standard – by units sold or dollar value – in the marketplace. Now all they need to do is develop two or three more “must have” products in the field and Apple’s share price will go on another stratospheric rise.
My favourite two products would be the so-called “media server” hub and an iPod-like hard-disk based video device capable of acting as an MPEG-4 camcorder as well as a storage/playback device for content recorded using the media server.
Finally a voice of reason. So long crApple. Hope you enjoyed the ride. Don’t hurt yourself when you bottom out!
No synergy. no halo effect.
Wheels spinning.
ipods topping out. itunes,too. shuttle hurtin´ipod sales.
minimac hurtin´ higher end mac sales.
faster chips ain´t coming.
no games for mac.
my thighs are shakin´.
Yeah, all these ANALists are ripping apple.
Why? They sold their stock last week, now they are trying to make some more by shorting it.
They will be back on thursday or late wedsnesday night buying aapl stock faster than rapid mongrel monkeys honking juiced-up green bananas.
mark my words
that should be:
“RABID, mongrel monkeys honking juiced-up, green bananas.”
nasty thing to see…worse than a frenzy of skanks rubbing cheese bark on walls filled with bad grafitti.