“The argument goes that if iPhone unit sales growth slows, or even worse, shrinks, then the Services business too will shrink, since those users are mostly iPhone owners,” CML writes. “Apple’s unit sales growth is slowing because people are upgrading their phones much less often. So, let’s say Apple sells 200 million iPhone phones this year, perhaps next year it sells just 170 million — that would be shrinkage, right? No, not right. That would be shrinkage in growth. If Apple sells 170 million iPhones next year, irrespective of how many the company sold last year, that is 170 million more phones.”
“That is, some will be Apple users upgrading to newer phones, and some, obviously, will be Android switchers,” CML writes. “Wall Street has gotten its underwear turned around and drawn an equivalency between slowing growth and losing users. That is not the case… It’s a good reminder that when the bear market arrives, logic tends to depart. Let’s not be those people.”
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Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. ― Warren Buffett