“Gene Munster is one of the world’s most recognized and respected Apple financial analysts with a long track record of successful focus on Apple and its products,” Apple Car Fans. “Apple Car Fans had the exclusive chance to sit down with Gene and get his latest insights on the Apple car.”
“Munster pointed out a previous white paper he and his company Piper Jaffray released about the Apple car last October. The analysis was positive, but since then we learned of possible members leaving the Apple Titan team,” Apple Car Fans. “Fortunately Munster does not think this is significant, though he noted the report is a little ‘dated.’ ‘Substance is unchanged,’ he said. Of the Apple Car he said ‘we’re still in the camp that this is real.'”
“Munster believes Apple wants to build a car because ‘Apple’s biggest concern is growth,’ and the automotive market offers a potentially generous amount of it,” Apple Car Fans. “‘There will be a car that you can see and order in 2019-2020,’ said Munster. ‘We don’t think it will probably be delivered until after that… maybe 2021.’ He added ‘an advantage of showing it early’ will be ‘to hold up the market in anticipation’ …In terms of the most likely go to market price, Munster also has a strong opinion. ‘If you look at the overall automotive industry Apple historically plays toward the high-end.’ The price when Apple starts selling it in 2020 or 2021 will be ‘around $75,000.'”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote last March:”When Apple enters markets, it’s because they can bring something(s) so unique to the table that significant disruption is inevitable.”
It goes without saying that Apple would create a premium vehicle, premium-priced for premium customers as usual, not a some low-end crate. — MacDailyNews, September 21, 2015
They built out retail stores, but adding on car dealerships too? Well, thankfully they have a lot of money to spend, because that will cost a lot of money.
“Apple’s biggest concern is growth,”. He even starts out wrong. How much else does he get wrong????
Apple’s biggest concern is how to make incredible product!!!
Used to be, but the last 5 years of Apple software have given me grave doubts about Apple’s concern for making incredible products. Cook sold Apple out to beancounters.
Does anyone remember this same guy (Gene) talking about Apple TV panels/screens for years and years – saying they are just around the corner from being announced – how is that prediction working out for you now ????
A $75,000 car, affordable only by the 5% at best, should be technologically interesting, but would hardly be disruptive.
I recall a fellow who said that the iPhone was a joke ($500 and it doesn’t even have a keyboard). Others said that the Apple Watch was a joke and would’t sell or disrupt the watch industry. These were thought to be only for the rich and the Apple fanatics. I wonder why you can’t remember all the changes that Apple made that have changed the industries that they touched?
I can only think because Apple sells memory at such inflated prices that those that most need it fail to cough up the readies and suffer memory losses accordingly.
The good dr. has been cogitating a bit on the notion of the apple car, and I must admit to some real apprehensions about the idea – and the associated cost.. here are a few.
despite mr. apples illustrious history of debunking and disproving the fud and doubts so publicly, loudly, and foolishly, trumpeted by industries whose product lines apple subsequently came to dominate, those industries all had at least one thing in common: their products were small and discrete electronic devices – all of which were squarely within apples wheelhouse.
Automobiles, on the other hand are a whole different animal – and an extremely capital intensive one at that.
so, for the moment, we have at last a cost estimate – a very large cost estimate, but then again we always knew it would be a very expensive automobile for any number of reasons, not the least of which being apples penchant for asking premium prices for premium products.
granted, it is certainly an approach that has worked well for them thus far, but those premium price points on clearly premium quality products have, to date, pretty much been at the hundreds and very low thousands of dollars level, a level that many, maybe even most, people can afford without it being that much of a stretch.
and here again, the car breaks that comfortable mold – now we talking about products priced in the high multiple tens of thousands of dollars level – even run of the mill cars are readily in the 20 – 30 k range and when you start looking at tesla and other boutique electric cars, multiply that by a factor of two, at least.
not a good trend when you consider that the American middle class is increasingly under financial pressure and actually shrinking in size. In other words there are less and less people able or willing to afford such a car when there are other necessities of life that are competing for their expendable income and are themselves increasing in price.
(as just one example take the inflating cost of food: flank steak, once a bargain cut of meat, badly in need of tenderizing and marinating before you could chew it into submission, now sells for nearly $20.00 per pound)
and housing prices are totally nuts. (the settle area went up nearly 20% in the past year alone)
so, at these kinds of prices me thinks mr. apple is heading down a very rocky road. a car of that price range goes way beyond my willingness to pay for such a luxury, when i can buy a very reliable subaru for a great deal less and still have plenty left over to pay for things i really need. like food and housing and maybe a nice series of vacations.
You may think the Subaru the better bargain. But it won’t matter. You’ll want the Apple car so badly that all rational economic thought will be set aside. You will hunger for it with each passing breath, through sleepless nights, until you finally put down a second mortgage on you house so you can have that object of desire you will be made to covet through covert underground advertising. Resistance is futile. Apple is kind of evil that way.
An abstract price is difficult to evaluate with an associated product or product attributes to consider. Could be fantastic; could be awful. Depends on what Apple comes up with. Way too early to complain.
The first model would presumably be a premium model, similar to the Tesla approach. It makes strategic sense to charge a premium price and introduce a model with relatively smaller demand as you ramp up production and gain experience. Subsequent models can “march down the proverbial hill” so to speak. Like the Duke of York…
There was a Duke of York,
Who had ten thousand men.
He marched them up the hill;
He marched them down again.
And when they were up, they were up.
But when they were down, they were down.
And when they were half way up,
They were neither up nor down!
WITHOUT in the first line; not with. Sorry.
A Tim Cook car.
THE BAD:
Refuses to start because of bugs
Has a single port
Is pretty on the outside but is made with cheap parts
Ridiculously expensive for absolutely no logical reason
THE GOOD:
But it does come in rose gold!
😎
Sounds more like a Windows PC or Android phone to me. Not otherwise sure the reasons they fail to work well or for long without expensive repairs and downtime. Apple products on the other hand tend to be at the top of the longevity and reliability tables. Next time you get your preferred computing device to operate at all take a quick look at the charts.
Yep, and I bet the battery comes in 3 sizes
100 km, 300km and 600km.
@$ 75,000, $110,000 and 169,000.
– just so you know its an Apple product like any other.
Gene Munster has “a long track record of successful focus on Apple and its products,” my ass. Anyone remember his compulsive Apple television rants?
Exactly.
Stop it, I’m trying to forget them.
Please shut up Gene.
OK It’s Munster, so we’re not likely to take his word as gospel, but we can think a little about what he is saying and see if it’s a credible guess. It’s certainly right to call it a guess because I don’t imagine for one moment that Apple has worked out the price it’s going to charge.
The big question will be exactly where it gets its power from? It’s pretty well certain to be electrically powered, so the likely choices are storage batteries or fuel cells. If Apple opt for storage batteries, then they’re running against Tesla as the obvious rival and the $75k price tag seems plausible.
On the other hand, if it’s going to be powered by a fuel cell, most likely hydrogen powered, then Apple will need to establish the infrastructure to support hydrogen refuelling. It would be a huge expense, but certainly within Apple’s capabilities, however it would only be viable if there were enough cars to make those hydrogen refuelling stations profitable. At the moment only a small proportion of the population travels about in cars costing around $75k and if Apple were to capture say 10% of that market, it’s hard to imagine that the infrastructure could ever be profitable with so few customers. On the other hand, if Apple produced a car that was priced a little higher than the mass market average, then 10% of that market would be quite something and the infrastructure costs would be easily covered.
On the one hand we get an Apple version of a Tesla, but the alternative would be something quite innovative. I’m more inclined to think that Apple would be brave and favour something totally revolutionary. Remember giving away the razor and making your money from selling blades? Apple could sell a hydrogen powered car for a modest price, but benefit from a massive ongoing revenue stream from the fuel.
Fact is Apple isn’t likely to enter the auto market as a large scale brand it would be impractical whatever type of car they produce to suddenly build thousands a month.
Thus to start with its going to be relatively a limited edition at a pretty high price I suspect that as such would really have to have a decent inbuilt advantage and lead, to stop others simply taking over the idea on a far bigger scale as Apple ramps up. That’s why despite initially rejecting it, I am beginning to think fuel cells just might well be the option they chose as it would give them at least 4 to 5 years to ramp it up unrivalled and when competitors do try to hastily copy, they will not have many, perhaps any, inbuilt advantages to exploit to out muscle Apple longer term. This is especially important as their competitors in that price range have a very loyal ‘fan base’ that are not going to perceive an Apple car as superior to a Merc or BMW, all things being equal. Sounds like Apple thinking to me.
I would disagree with your suggestion that Apple would only aim for a small production run.
If Apple opt for a fuel cell and have to create the infrastructure needed to support fuel cells, it only makes sense if there are a lot of customers and that means manufacturing a lot of cars every month. It also means manufacturing a lot of the devices needed to refuel those cars too.
I don’t think that Apple will be planning on matching traditional car numbers, but I think they’ll aim at becoming a lot more than a niche market.
It would be a monumental undertaking, but I think that Apple would not be afraid to tackle that sort of challenge.
I predict the entire Apple product line will morph at the time the car is introduced.
The whole line will move to liquidmetal (sorry not sooner).
The whole line will move to fuel cells (more below).
The whole line will incorporate a whip-smart global personal Siri.
LIQUIDMETAL
It’s an expensive metal, but when they’re using metric tons of it employing patented processing (like stamping, which was patented last year) it’ll work. Besides, Apple likes their products to look like a family. The material is always seen as a key part of that unity. Also, they’ve put a lot of work into Aluminum. They’re going to ride that another 2-4 years for sure.
FUEL CELLS
FC’s can power consumer electronics. There’s no reason they can’t, except that FC’s don’t fuel anything mainstream right now. But using the tech behind the company they bought last summer, which developed a powdered way of holding the Hydrogen, they should be able to make both small and large “batteries” that slide in and out of devices. People will be able to subscribe to have FC’s sent to their homes. There’s no need for gas stations then.
GLOBAL SIRI
It’d be nice to have this sooner, but I think it’ll debut with Car. It’ll be a personal siri, as opposed to the standard-issue Siri that we all currently have. This Siri will know what devices you have and exist across them all. It will be more akin to Jarvis in Iron Man, with a strong inclination toward helpfulness that transcends the device you’re on. You may be able to name it, and tweak the voice and personality. It will be profoundly more helpful than the current Siri, able even to search the web, read the articles and give answers. So you could ask, “Hey Siri, I’m thinking of going to Puerto Rico in May of 2023. What are prices for flights likely to be around then, and will the weather be nice?” And you’ll actually get an answer — one that is remembered and referenceable later. (Three weeks later on a different device: “Hey Siri, remember our conversation about Puerto Rico? What did you say about that again?”)
And those, friends, are my predictions of the day. Free.
At $75,000, I guess there won’t be a problem with people lining up days in advance, but I do wonder if Apple will limit sales to only six per customer like they’ve done with the iPhone. The main problem, though, is I just don’t see how they’re going to fit one into my local Apple Store…
Apple will not produce a $75000 car.
Ditto………..back to the Television set you go Gene…..LOL!!!
Software in the CAR will belong to Apple. They will NOT manufacture a motor vehicle…..!!
At $75,000, that sucker better do more than play music from my iPhone. I’m expecting wings on that baby so it can fly!
Perhaps be watertight and float too?
It will be a very simple interface… 1 button in the middle of the dashboard… hopefully car play will work consistently by then!
Gonna setup a new savings account today for the Apple Car! It should be around $75000 by 2019!
Will Apple offer original rainbow Apple logo paint job?
I don’t know. The timeline is generous enough that it just might happen, and so is the retail price.
Let us not forget the original iPhone. The price was $500, FULLY subsidised (actual retail was over $800). That price eventually came down to some $650 and stayed there. To put it in perspective, the cheapest iPhone was (and still is) more expensive than vast majority of Windows PCs, never mind non-Apple phones (smart or dumb). When it came out, it was three times more expensive than the most expensive phone before it. And yet, it had sold over 200 million at that price.
If Apple decides to manufacture a car, it will definitely be at least as popular as a Mac. It will likely fall in the market space of BMW, Jaguar, Mercedes, higher-end Audi and similar cars. There is plenty of business in that segment, and once the economy of scale ramps up, they can sell less expensive models for a larger audience.
The story isn’t completely implausible; it is just a very very big wildcard right now.
The price of a Macan and higher.
Gene Munster? Respected ????
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha !!!
Clueless speculation never ends.
There’s no reason to chase after Google on such stupid money pits.
The Tesla costs something like $90k, right? When has Apple ever strived to undercut the price of the competition?
If Apple is being managed by competent people — definitely an open question — then they won’t ever release a car period. Margins are too low, overhead is too high. And who would be the customer? $75k would be better spent on a Porsche if you like cars, or just buy a Prius and spend the extra $40k you saved by planting trees.
Typo in that opening line. It should read ““Gene Munster is one of the world’s most recognized and respected Apple financial analysts with a four year track record of predicting a full-size Apple TV will appear sometime next year.”
They were saving the TV for the car. The dash display will be a 50 inch Apple TV. No need for a windshield since the car will be self driving. If you want to see the scenery, you put on your VR headset.