Apple’s stock to fall 50%, Obama out of office, and 8 other interesting 2012 predictions from Saxo Bank

“Apple’s stock price cut in half? A dark-horse candidate elected as U.S. president? A booming Australia suddenly falling into a recession?” Robert Holmes reports for The Street. “As unlikely as those events may be, they’re among the 10 most ‘Outrageous Predictions’ for 2012 made by Europe’s Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank isn’t completely serious with its far-out calls for 2012. Steen Jakobsen, the bank’s chief economist, acknowledges that Saxo’s annual list of outrageous predictions always has a negative bias to help encourage investors to think outside the box and be on guard for unpleasant surprises. The strategy team said it views the bank’s outrageous predictions as a way of stress-testing a portfolio.”

Holmes reports, “‘Going into 2012, Apple will find itself faced with multiple competitors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft/Nokia, and Samsung across its most innovative products, the iPhone and iPad,’ Saxo Bank’s strategists write. ‘Apple will be unable to maintain its market share of 55 percent (three times as much as Android) and 66 percent on the iOS and iPad.’ As crazy as that prediction sounds, investors should keep in mind that Apple’s share price was slashed in half in 2008, as the stock fell from nearly $200 a share to below $100 during the financial crisis. If competition hits a fever pitch as Saxo Bank predicts, Apple’s profit margins could be crushed and future profit growth estimates would have to be ratcheted back.”

“Much like the way Texas billionaire Ross Perot feasted on the disgust Americans had with U.S. politics in 1992 to land nearly 19 percent of the popular vote, Saxo Bank strategists predict that a new political order will be born after a third-party candidate wins the presidency in November 2012 by taking 38 percent of the popular vote,” Holmes reports. “‘Going into the election in 2012, the incumbent Democrats are in ideological disarray and will get the blame for continued economic malaise and the favor-the-rich Republicans will never win the popular vote with the U.S. rich/poor gap at a record width and social tension rising,’ the strategists write. ‘In short, conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone smart enough to sense this and with a strong program for real change throws his hat in the ring early in 2012.'”

Eight more predictions in the full article here.

51 Comments

    1. The day Sarah ‘I can see Russia from my home’ Palin or Michelle ‘I’m like John Wayne from Waterloo, Iowa’ (the serial killer not the actor) Bachmann becomes President, that very day the earth is doomed. If the USA wants to go belly up and take the rest of the world with it, go ahead… vote for these… intellectual challenged brain jugglers with cerebrovascular aplasia living in the past.

    1. Obama’s likely to take California and New York, and most of the traditional Democratic leaning states. That’s most of the battle right there.

      In 2008 he took a number of traditionally Republican states. Shall see how that goes this time.

  1. Did this Eurpopean bank predict that the EU would collapse, along with all European banks, and the country would return to the Dark Ages, but on the plus side, everyone would be eligible for 4 month vacations on the Mediterranean.

      1. if he runs it means nothing.
        If Ron Paul runs 3rd party… Obama is a 2 termer.
        he has no prayer on the GOP ticket, but he WILL pull enough support to make a 3 way race impossible to win.

        I like *some* of what RP says… the rest, he’s a nutcase.
        Put him in charge of our debt, nothing else.

  2. Steen Jakobsen, the bank’s chief economist, acknowledges that Saxo’s annual list of outrageous predictions always has a negative bias to help encourage investors to think outside the box

    There’s thinking outside the box, then there’s OUTRIGHT INSANITY. I prefer the former to the latter in all endeavors professional. IOW: Saxo Bank aren’t funny. Saxo Bank aren’t professional. Saxo Bank need to get some self-perspective before their clients kick them to the street. 😛

  3. I strongly believe that Appleis gathering as much cash as possible so that when the next conspiracy brings AAPL shares below $150 a share, they will be able to buy back all the shares and get rid of the stock market. They don’t need the Nasdaq or any other place. They will live on their own minding their own business privately.

    Someone call Jesse Ventura!!!!!

  4. I see integration of Apple TV, iCloud, and Siri, – our first electronic candidate for president. As president Siri could easily reach out to all the iPhone’d, iPad’ed, Mac’ed populace. Just think if you could make a Bewoulf cluster of iPhones, iPads, and Macs…

  5. …a third-party candidate wins the presidency in November 2012 by taking 38 percent of the popular vote.

    Although most states appoint electors on a winner-take-all basis based on the popular vote, I doubt that it is even mathematically possible to win an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) with only 38% of the popular vote. If not, then the Twelfth Amendment kicks in…

    The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.

  6. Sad to say, but Obamanation will probably be re-elected in November as the only thing more inept than Nobama is the teabagger brigade of Koch-bots that seem to be running the Republican Party these days.

    Apple stock is overvalued in light of the deep worldwide recession and Bush Depression we are in currently. You won;t buy shiny new Apple toys if you don’t know where the mortgage money is coming from next month…

    Unless something really unusual happens the Democrats will regain the House as America’s voters have seen the teabaggers for what they really are- the crazy, wild-eyed, paranoid, loony wing of Republicandom. John Birchers of the 21st Century. They have had a taste of the tea party and will spit it out rather than stay on the crazy train.

    I wish a real 3rd party candidate would run as I really do not wish to choose between a Republican (Obama) and a Teabagger Republican (Romney/Gingrich, etc). A real Democrat would be nice, but alas, the corporate media would not be happy as it would upset their horse race.

    I wish everyone a Happy Festivus or whatever flavor of holiday you choose this year.

      1. The Tea Party has the right values (lower debt mainly) but don’t understand how government works. You HAVE to compromise in government unless you are the only party otherwise the governmental process comes to a halt. Gee, isn’t that what’s happening right now? How about no parties? Maybe a parliamentarian system?

  7. The thing that really gets me is that, ok, so a bunch of people use the “boston tea party” thing as a platform for their views, which is great, and I am all for that, but then they pick Palin as someone they respect and represent them and by the way I support the 2nd amendment but also don’t.

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