“We estimate that there could be $15 (6%) downside to Apple’s stock if iPad sales were to eventually cannibalize about half of Mac notebook sales,” Trefis writes. “Such a scenario could materialize if the majority of prospective Mac notebook buyers are primarily content consumers rather than content creators.”
Trefis writes, “We estimate that Apple will sell about 4 million iPads in 2010 and that this will increase to over 12 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period [2016].”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Given their ludicrously low iPad unit sales projections, take the rest of what Trefis has to say accordingly.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Carl H.” for the heads up.]
First in line at manhatten beach apple store. I knocked over senior citizens and tripped children to be first.
Typical idiots! They just don’t get it! The iPad will only take sales away from M$ & it’s partners especially Winbloz netbooks.
Exactly. I won’t be buying an iPad in place of a MacBook Pro, but in place of anything Windows related. Somebody explain to me why these tech guys, who don’t “get it” still have jobs?
iPad’s will actually increase Mac sales as the Mac OS gets more exposure.
More dense analysts.
More likely the ‘halo’ effect is going to get a lot more mac buyers.
Read the forums analysts, so many ‘switchers’ to mac (50% of mac buyers according to Apple are switchers) are due to first buying an iPod, iPhone and now probably the iPad. The only line that might, I say might, see a slow down if any would be the iPod Touch (but if they put a camera in the next Touch model it’ll sell).
Considering you currently need a computer with Mac OS X or Windows running iTunes to even use an iPad, I think the reverse will happen in the near term. Windows users will be compelled to get a Mac as their next “full” computer, because of their positive experience with iPad. Same thing has already been happening over the last few years, first with iPod and then with iPhone. It was called the “halo effect,” remember?
At some point, iPad will become a self-sufficient computer. If Apple manages to have the majority share of tablet computers (seems likely), who cares if there is some cannibalization of Mac sales. That scenario only has upside (not “downside”) for Apple; they will be selling TEN iPads for every ONE Mac sale they lose (because most iPad customers are currently PC users). So the victims will be Apple’s PC-selling competitors, who will lose PC sales with nothing to gain.
Does this guy really believe that perhaps 1/2 of Mac laptop buyers are merely “content consumers”? My guess is that only a VERY small percentage of Mac buyers fall into that category. Why pay the price just to surf the web and check e-mail?
I’m betting iPad will not only take a chunk out of MS netbook sales but that MacBook sales will actually increase when the curious check out the iPad and decide to move up to a MacBook instead.
Mac buyers tend to be weighted to the content-creation side of things. These people are not likely to try to use an iPad for a primary machine (at least for the next several years).
It’s more likely that a Mac user would buy an iPad to supplement their computing needs (perhaps buying one ion place of an iPod Touch).
On the other hand the “average” computer user (most of whom are PC users), might buy an iPad in place of their next notebook or desktop.
Essentially the iPad will cannibalize the PC far faster than it will the Mac market.
Apple is so damn smart.
Increased iMac sales to serve as the household hub to sync iPads, iPhones and iPod Touches.
In addition to the valid points above (like Mac OS X vs iPhone OS and halo effects), it also comes down to margin. If I recall, a semi-recent article guesstimated that the iPad components were < 50% of the MSRP of the iPads. So I don’t think AAPL minds a huge uptake in iPads, cannibalization or not.
iPad/iPhone OS will gradually replace Mac OS for most average users.
I’ve switched my buying intention from MacBook Air + external monitor to iMac + iPad.
@Connor
ditto, my plan was a
MacBook pro and mdp monitor, now it’s a 27″ iMac and iPad (several)
Let’s see – the stock has risen over 25% since Feb. Everyone has been pumping up the stock. Now it’s time for the brokers to take their profit and spread some FUD so that the stock goes down again.
It’s the usual story. The big guys will get out, make the stock drop down and then buy back in again.
As far as I have read on forums, the only reason people aren’t getting MacBooks and Mbp’s right now is because they are expecting a refresh with intel’s new processors
we now have an ipad at home plus two macbook pro’s. and a mac mini. the funny thing is that when my wife just used her macbook once in a while our old airport extreme (old speed) was ok. after an hour with her ipad i had to go down to the apple store to buy a new extreme. there were still people standing in line at the abq apple store at 2 pm this afternoon. they were giving out free drinks in front of the store.
I’m so depressed.
Maybe if I go buy an iPad my life will be complete and I wont have to kill myself.
When I got my iPad today and started it up at home it became obvious that the iPad is not a MacBook replacement.
On the contrary, the iPad is going to make more people than ever get iMacs and MacBooks.
Why? Well, the iPad — similar to the iPhone and iPod Touch —
requires a regular computer running iTunes for you to update its software (iPhone OS Updates, etc. etc.)
In fact, you can’t use an iPad without a regular computer to upload it with stuff, register it, update it etc.
Now, how many people buying iPads and having had a taste of the Mac user experience and Apple stores convenience are going to buy a Windows machine to be their iPads’ mothership?
Yup. I am guessing the same thing. All the millions of people buying iPads are sooner or later going to switch to a Mac; and while some will go for iMacs, many will go for MacBooks, so it’s incredibly unlikely that there will be any cannibalization effect on MacBooks because of the iPad. On the contrary, the iPad is most likely to increase Mac OSX market share going forward.
Daniel Eran Dilger said it best:
“Another realization you’ll make quickly: Apple didn’t design iPad to be a way not to sell Macs anymore. In fact, it’s not only just not a notebook replacement, but actually requires being plugged into an iTunes computer before you do anything on it, just like an iPod touch”
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/04/03/first_look_ipad.html
My plan is two iPads and one Mac Mini, plus hang onto my old Macs. Not less buying of all things Mac, but more.
That would place the value of the Macintosh brand and OSX at about $40 Billion. I think that is a low number.
The iPhone & iPad run variants of OSX and wouldn’t exist without the Mac OS.
I think netbook makers might be who gets destroyed by this little device.
@ Connor & @Hotinplaya
So iPad may canniberize Macbook sales, but it will accelerate iMac, a better margin, sales. At the end Apple will enjoy more margin.
Steve said long time ago, if someone is going to kill Apple’s products, it is better if that guy is Apple itself.
Did those analysts recall what happened to iPod mini????
Every thing that people are predicting about the iPad and cannibalization will be true to one extent or another.
It will take sales away from netbooks and laptop and desktop PC’s.
It will influence people who are not Mac users to switch to the Mac platform.
It will also cause some Mac users to buy an iPad instead of
an iPod or iPhone. It will cause others to put off laptop puchases in favor of an iPad and a desktop. Some will rely on the iPad as their essential device rather than a laptop or desktop.
But it doesn’t matter.
As beautifully designed and functional as the Macs and Mac books are-they are now the old paradigm.
The iPad is the future direction for Macs.
Apple has already calculated iPad usage and cannibalization.
They have already designed the new Macs.
They have plans for a number of years into the future.
They will add, subtract, morph and tweak products as necessary for a seamless transition.
Remember Apple skates to where the puck will be; and we will be dazzled. The ride “ain’t” over yet!
Steve is betting on mindless games, pop culture, and people (mostly sophomoric 20 something kids) who don’t use their brains very much.
The effort to gain market share making computers has failed and he’s in the process of leaving the that market. It’s all about tunes, phones, the net, facebook, twitter, and games on a 10 in. hand held gadget.
He’s declared (and a lot of lemmings then dutifully follow) that people don’t read, don’t need dvds, don’t buy movies, all want glossy screens, and just want a simple life. iPad is perfect for these millions.
Apple may become the richest company in America or the world. But, it won’t be a computer company.
OF course iPad will cannibalize MacBook sales. My guess is that 15-20% of MacBook sales will be lost to iPad (damn few MBPros tho)
HOWEVER – they will also bring new customers to the Apple fold which will eventually increase Mac sales overall. – IMHO.