Apple’s first big hardware test under new CEO John Ternus is landing better than Wall Street expected. On the day the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max reach stores, Evercore ISI told clients that an annual survey of nearly 4,000 U.S. consumers points to a “better-than-expected iPhone refresh cycle,” with the premium models doing the heavy lifting and pricing set to provide a sizable tailwind.
The note, first detailed by Investing.com, is the clearest bullish read yet on Apple’s launch. Evercore kept its Outperform rating and raised its Apple price target to $380 from $365. Analyst Amit Daryanani’s new target implies roughly 13% upside from Thursday’s close near $337.
Aging phones, not novelty, are driving the upgrade
The most striking shift in the survey is why people say they are buying. Sixty-seven percent of respondents named the age of their current iPhone as the main reason to upgrade, up from 48% a year earlier. That is a more durable catalyst than last year’s AI-led interest, which faded once Apple Intelligence failed to match the marketing.
One secondary report on the same Evercore work put the average replacement cycle at 23.5 months, down from 26.5 months last year. If that compression holds beyond stated intentions, unit volume would firm even if Apple sells fewer “wow” features than the foldable sitting one month away.
Pro Max Remains King
The mix is also tilting where Apple makes the most money. Fifty-three percent of prospective buyers said they plan to purchase an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max, a touch above the 51% historical average after prior launches. Thirty-two percent specifically want the Pro Max, up from 29% a year ago. Evercore summed it up in three words: “Pro Max Remains King.”
That preference matters because this is not a full-line launch. Apple skipped a standard iPhone 18 this fall and put the cycle on two Pro slabs plus the forthcoming foldable. Hardware, not slogans, is the pitch: a 2-nanometer A20 Pro chip, a variable-aperture main camera, and the company’s largest single-generation battery jump, with up to 36 hours of video playback on the Pro and 45 hours on the Pro Max.
Price is the other half of the thesisThe phones cost more. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 for 256GB and the Pro Max at $1,299 — $100 above last year’s Pro models. Storage steps are steeper still. A 2TB Pro is $2,399; a 2TB Pro Max is $2,499. Evercore said list prices, a richer mix, and larger memory configurations could lift pricing by more than 20% in parts of the lineup and push average selling prices up by about 28%.
That is an aggressive ASP call. It only works if buyers keep choosing the top of the configurator instead of trading down after the sticker shock. Bank of America, which reiterated a Buy rating and $370 target, argues carrier economics blunt the increase: U.S. trade-in credits of as much as $1,200, up from $1,100 last year, roughly offset the $100 list-price hike for customers coming off a recent Pro Max.
The survey also found wearables riding along. Thirty-eight percent of respondents planned an Apple Watch purchase, up from 34% last year, with most of that interest in Watch Series 12 rather than Ultra 4. Forty-three percent were considering AirPods, also higher than a year ago. Those are high-margin attach products, not just window dressing around the phone.
The foldable is the swing factor
The iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable, is a quieter part of the same note and the biggest wild card in the cycle. Only 14% of Evercore’s respondents said they planned to buy one, well behind the combined Pro models. The firm expects that figure to rise as the mid-October launch approaches. Pre-orders open October 16; shipments start October 23. The 256GB Duo is $1,999; the 2TB configuration is $3,199.
That product can cut both ways. A late foldable can pull high-end buyers out of the Pro line in September and October. It can also expand the premium mix if Duo demand is incremental rather than substitutional. Evercore’s own survey is U.S.-only, and foldables have historically sold better in China than in North America, so the 14% reading may understate global interest.
Lead times and the Street’s split screen
Not every firm is reading the same tape. Some pre-order trackers called the first days soft. Morgan Stanley took the opposite view: global delivery windows of two to four weeks, roughly flat with last year, even as second-half Pro and Pro Max production is planned at 71 million units versus 60 million a year earlier. Flat waits against an 18% production increase, the bank argued, look more like demand holding up than like a flop. Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating and a $360 target.
Evercore itself had already treated longer U.S. and U.K. ship times as a positive signal earlier in the week. The disagreement is a reminder that lead times are a noisy proxy: they mix demand with how much inventory Apple chose to build. The survey of purchase intent is a different instrument, and it is still just intent. Evercore was explicit that the poll is not completed sales and not a worldwide demand print.
What the firm is willing to say is that the data look modestly ahead of last year and support fiscal 2027 revenue above the roughly 7% growth the Street is modeling. That is the real payload of the note. A better mix and a shorter replacement cycle would flow through iPhone revenue first, then into Services as another wave of devices joins an installed base already measured in the billions.
What the stock is pricing
Apple shares have been resilient through the launch window and were on track Friday for a fifth consecutive weekly gain, even as the tape itself was little changed around the $335–$337 area. The stock is up more than 40% over the past year and about 24% year to date by one Friday tally, so Evercore is not calling a turn from a beaten-down name. It is arguing the launch is good enough to keep the premium multiple from cracking.
The risks are obvious and already in the research. Higher list prices and fatter storage steps could choke units if trade-in promotions fail. The Duo could cannibalize Pro Max. A U.S. intention survey can overstate global demand, especially if China is cooler than the domestic poll. And Apple’s valuation leaves little room for a miss once holiday-quarter guidance arrives.
For now, Evercore’s message is narrower than a grand thesis about AI or a new CEO. Buyers are holding older phones, they still want the expensive models, and they are still paying up for storage. If that combination survives first-weekend sell-through and the Duo’s October debut, Apple’s 2026 refresh will have been defined less by the foldable headline and more by a familiar machine: Pro Max, higher ASPs, and a replacement cycle that finally stopped stretching.
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“Because its customers are, on average, considerably more affluent, Apple won’t merely survive RAMageddon — it will emerge stronger than ever, widening its lead as rivals get hammered by the same memory crisis.” – MacDailyNews, June 25, 2026 (AAPL closed at $274.91)
“This situation could ultimately help Apple take market share: If everyone is forced to raise prices over RAMageddon, Apple’s affluent customers are the most likely to absorb it. The Dells, HPs, Lenovos, and Samsungs of the world have no such luxury.” – MacDailyNews, June 26, 2026 (AAPL closed at $283.54)
“If every company is forced to raise prices, and they are, the one with the most affluent customers stands to benefit most. Its buyers can better absorb the higher costs, while users of rival products may rethink their choices based on long-term value and resale potential rather than just the sticker price, helping Apple amass market share in the process.” – MacDailyNews, July 31, 2026 (AAPL closed at $308.64)
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