“The Apple Watch went on sale for pre-orders on April 10, 2015, and the Apple Store tells us that delivery dates for all orders now stretch into summer and beyond. We know that the initial production run of Apple Watch has sold out; what we don’t know is how many Apple Watches that represents,” Carl Howe, Think Big Academy principal, blogs. “I’ve built a simple model that predicts that the initial run of watches was more than 3 million units and will yield Apple Watch revenues of over $2 billion for the first two weeks of sales.”
“The model suggests that while Sport Watch will lead sales in volume, selling 1.8 million units through May 8, Apple Watch will actually lead in revenue during that period, garnering about $900 million versus Sport’s $675 million,” Howe writes. “I also believe that Apple’s decision to introduce the Edition will be validated by $500 million in sales on only 40,000 units.”
“While I believe that these figures will be considerably below the number of pre-orders for Apple Watch, I believe Apple did this for an important reason,” Howe writes. “Apple is offering 38 different models of Apple Watch and it has no order history to go on. Instead of guessing at the right mix of models to manufacture, I believe that while Apple has manufactured a large number of Apple Watch electronics modules, it will perform the final assembly of actual products—the unique combinations of module, case, and band—to order. This approach will allow it to keep inventory costs low and satisfy as many consumers as possible.”
Much more, including Origami lobsters, in the full article – A Must Read – here.
MacDailyNews Take: Carl Howe. One of the world’s best Apple analysts. There’s much goodness in the full article. Dig in!