“There are 80 million Mac users. The last 12 months saw sales of 18 million Macs,” Horace Dediu writes for Asymco. “As of the end of June there were 886,580,000 iOS devices sold. As of today the total is well over 900 million. One billion sold will happen well before this year is out. Estimates of current iOS users vary but they are probably at least 500 million and could be 600 million.”
“80 million Mac Users and 500 million iOS users add up to about $169.3 billion in sales per year. If we assume that the number of Mac users grows to 90 million and 600 million for iOS then next year Apple should get another $200 million from its population of users,” Dediu writes. “This would be the forward price to sales ratio of about 2.5. Each sale yields a certain net profit, which for Apple is on average 21%. Multiplying 2.5 by (1/.21) gives 12 which is about the P/E ex cash. This exercise summarizes Apple’s valuation nicely: Apple is expected to keep its current customers for about a decade and then disappear.”
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