Analyst: Whatever success Microsoft has with Windows 8 will be short-lived

“In Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax, the Once-ler manufactures Thneeds, a does-everything garment that ‘all people need.’ But a quick glance at the bizarre creation makes it obvious that no one actually needs such a thing,” David Goldstein writes for CNNMoney. “Could Windows 8 be Microsoft’s Thneed?”

“Windows 8 will allow users to perform all PC functions through a touch-based interface similar to the design on Windows Phone devices. Legacy Windows applications with a traditional user interface will work on Windows 8, but Microsoft is encouraging developers to write applications that will integrate its new tile-based UI,” Goldstein reports. “It sounds nice, it looks beautiful, and on the surface it appears to be a way for Microsoft to keep Windows relevant.”

“But analysts say there is a major hole in Microsoft’s Windows-on-any-device approach: Microsoft is misguided in its continued belief that consumers want every device they’re using to function like a PC,” Goldstein reports. “‘Where Microsoft fails is in its continued desire to replicate a full PC experience on everything. It’s an archaic concept. You don’t need that anymore,’ said Zeus Kerravala, analyst at Yankee Group. ‘Microsoft doesn’t understand how people work, live and play today. Whatever success Microsoft has with Windows 8 will be short-lived.'”

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Goldstein reports, “In other words, Microsoft has correctly recognized the trend but incorrectly identified the root cause. Yes, consumers are switching away from PCs to a tablet form factor. But it’s not just the tablet’s look-and-feel that people are after.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote back on June 1st: Taking into account that demos are, of course, designed to make products look good no matter what, our initial impression is that Microsoft, in trying to cram everything into Windows 8 in an attempt to be all things to all devices, will end up with an OS that’s a jack of all trades and a master of none (which, after all, ought to be Microsoft’s company motto).

By the time this hybrid spawn of Windows Phone ’07 + Windows 7ista actually ships, one can only dream where Apple’s iOS and Mac OS X will be! For Microsoft, it’ll be more like a nightmare. Perhaps Microsoft will someday put some scare into Google’s Android/Chrome OS, but only time – and a lot of it when measured in tech time – will tell. We simply do not see the world clamoring for the UI of an iPod also-ran now ported to an iPhone wannabe that nobody’s buying to be blown up onto a PC display.

From what we’ve seen so far, Windows 8 strikes us as an unsavory combination of Windows Weight plus Windows Wait.

Not to mention that probably no one on earth knows how much or what kinds of residual legacy spaghetti code roils underneath it all (shudder). Is Microsoft giving up on backwards compatibility? If so, people might as well get the Mac they always wanted. If not, then Microsoft’s unwilling to do what it takes to really attempt to keep up with the likes of Apple or even Apple’s followers. No matter what, if Microsoft’s going to ask Windows sufferers to “learn a whole new computer” (and that’s exactly how they’ll look at it, regardless of how Microsoft pitches it), millions will simply say, “Time to get a Mac to match my iPod, iPhone, and iPad!”

As if they needed it: More good news for Apple.

 

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Edward Weber” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Corporate America to Microsoft: We’ll pass on Windows 8 – September 9, 2011
WSJ’s Mossberg reviews Mac OS X Lion: ‘The best computer operating system’ – July 21, 2011
Researchers: Apple’s Mac OS X Lion is the king of security – July 21, 2011
Microsoft developers horrified over Windows 8 preview – June 13, 2011
More good news for Apple: Microsoft previews Windows 8 (with video) – June 1, 2011

66 Comments

    1. The wrap-up shows that Microsoft has fundamentally gone in the wrong direction on this, which no amount of tinkering or fine-tuning can solve.

      And this bit jumped out at me for some reason:

      Every program gets a tile — as Microsoft’s Jensen Harris puts it, “icons are yesterday’s way of representing apps, tiles are today’s way of representing apps.”

      Did he say it as unconvincingly as it reads on the screen? Seriously, does anyone at Microsoft actually believe this? lol

    2. I just watched that video with no sound and I had absolutely no idea what the hell it was meant to be about. They guy just kept flicking from one empty desktop to another…

      …what on earth is the point of all this shit M$ are developing?

    3. The complete adoption of the term “apps” over “programs” is a testimony to Apple’s success and Windows failure. I had never even heard the term before I switched to Mac 1-1/2 years ago. Now it is THE nomenclature at Microsoft.

      And I love the video. So many times they didn’t know how to do the very thing they were demonstrating. I saw this and all I could think was “awkward”.

      1. It’s just a popular name.
        Like walkman.

        Yes, apple popularized the name. That’s kind of like apple’s textbook trick: take an existing thing, slap a new name on it and act like it’s something special. Because of this marketing phenomena, now all of the technically oblivious users think an “app” is somehow different from an “applciation”, while they are off course the exact same thing.

        If sinofsky wouldn’t drop the name every now and then, idiots would be screaming like “zomg, it has no ‘apps’!!!11!1”.

        The other day, my mother in law asked me if I had any “apps” on my computer. For me, that was kind of a facepalm moment.

        Having said that, windows 8 marks the beginning of a new era. It’s very different from traditional windows. I’m loving it allready. Haters gonna hate, what do you wanna do about that?
        The bias in the article above says it all…

        Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
        Meanwhile, win7 sold 450 million licenses and Live has 542 million unique logins per month.

        Those who think microsoft is in decline are just kidding themselves. Big time.

        A well… have fun with your apple products. Just accept that apple is NOT the center of the universe and that other companies can (and do) make great products as well.

        Posted from my brand new windows 8 desktop. 🙂

        1. Yeah. The point being that app is short for application, and Windiws nomenclature never used application either. It was programs or executable files. Microsoft hasn’t simply adopted the trendy shortened nickname app, they’ve adopted Apple’s vocabulary. Apple may not be the center of the universe, but it is determining its own future, and apparently the future of its rivals as well. I wouldnt be surprised if MS is trying to figure out how to get away with calling their new OS iMango.

    4. you’re criticizing a pre-beta build of a newly announced operating system. PRE-beta, catch that? it’s not even close to being released as a whole operating system and was merely put out to show some of the features it would have and to give people a general understanding of how it may look and the different programs that would be introduced. Thinking that there wouldn’t be tons of bugs and flaws would be insane and is downright unfair.

      1. “was merely put out to show some of the features it would have and to give people a general understanding”

        Actually, not even that. The sole reason for Build is to get it into the hands of developers early.

        There are MILLIONS of .NET/C++ developers out there. The development platforms received quite a serious overhaul in win8.
        To make sure that all developers now what is coming and are armed with all the necessary knowledge the day it is released, they need to get early builds into their hands as soon as possible.

        This is only pre-beta and allready it is pretty stable. There are, off course, glitches, bugs, missing features,… etc. Those will get fixed the coming months as the update system is allready up and running.

        Eventhough anyone can download this preview, it really isn’t meant for the general public yet. The first reason for this even and “release” is the developer community. The tech savy people who will be building the applications.

  1. Analysts crack me up.

    Lets see… if MS had announced a new “tablet” OS which totally threw out the Win32/64 API this talking head would be writing about how the product was doomed because it “won’t run any of your legacy windows applications”

    Seriously. lol.

  2. Windows 8 is already uncool.

    I saw it demo’d on all things digital – done.
    Like the frankenstien monster.
    Hacked poorly thought out bs.

    Back to the drafting table Microsoft it ain’t ready.

  3. Did you read the part about the fan INSIDE THE TABLET?!!!

    “The fan rarely shut off while I used the tablet in my hands-on, and the constant whirring noise was an unwanted distraction compared with the blissful silence of the iPad 2 or Galaxy Tab 10.1…”

    You can’t make this stuff up.

    Oh yeah, and it weighed 2 pounds.

    1. My MacBook Air has a fan inside… I don’t think ARM based tablets will have one, but since this is a DEVELOPER PREVIEW, devices that can actually run the DEVELOPER TOOLS seems like a wise move.

    2. “Did you read the part about the fan INSIDE THE TABLET?!!!”

      Did you watch the keynote?
      Did you read the part where it says that this tablet is a proof-of-concept? A developer preview machine? Something that will not be sold?

      This tablet is not meant to be representative of what kind of tablets will get sold. It’s a machine with as only purpose R&D by developers. Only a couple thousand were made to hand out at the conference. It’s kind of logical that they aren’t gonna go through the trouble to get this device 100% consumer ready if it’s just to R&D by a specific selection of people.

      I guess they didn’t mention that in the biased article you read 🙂

      Relax… the tablet is just as much pre-beta as the OS that is installed on it. Sheesh…

  4. More goodies from the PC World review:

    “Heat. Even though the fan engaged often (and loudly), the 700T got hot super toasty. Sure, it needs to cool that hot Intel Core i5 CPU inside, but the heat, coupled with the fan noise–and the next point, battery life–are tradeoffs that many consumers won’t want to make on their tablets. The display emanated heat, and the back was warm to the touch, in spite of the generously sized air vents at back. It wasn’t hot enough to cook my breakfast scrabble on, but it sure was too hot for its–and my–own good.

    Battery life. The battery life on this preview unit was abysmal. Windows’ desktop interface reported about 2.5 to 3 hours of battery life, and it drained down fairly quickly in use.”

  5. I never read The Lorax, or at least don’t remember it, but that was exactly the impression I got when I watched the video in the review that Cocoanuck linked (http://thisismynext.com/2011/09/13/windows-8-tablet-photos-video-preview/). The review’s a little long, and you don’t need to read it if you watch the video. However, it’s worth reading “Early Performance Thoughts” and “Wrap-UP”. There, they try to make the OS sound “snappy”, but the video tells a different story. I especially love the reader comments. MS fans are trying to love it, but they are struggling.

    1. This section of the “Wrap-up” paragraph says it all, really:

      If we’re going to be totally honest though, we’d describe Windows 8 right now as incoherent and contradictory. Touch response in the Metro UI is stellar, Contracts sound seriously useful, and snapping apps can make you more productive on a tablet, but whenever you want to get down and dirty with a traditional program, it’s back to the traditional desktop interface. There are two Control Panels, two versions of IE, and core apps are nowhere to be found (i.e. Mail, a camera app, etc.) Meanwhile, if you want to do anything with the desktop interface (save things you’ve actually planted on your desktop) you’ll probably find yourself thrown back to Metro since the traditional Start menu is gone. The whole user experience feels schizophrenic, with users having to jump back and forth between the two paradigms, each of which seem like they might be better off on their own.

      …in other words, Apple’s decision to keep OS X and iOS separate was the correct one.

  6. Charms? Is the secret to Windiws 8?! Kids hired for UI development! Hey, when you think of the building for the next generation, I would suggest getting them out of college! Not elementary school.

  7. windows 8 was not built because the reasoning to use a desktop OS on tablets is a good idea but because the Lords of Windows Desktop (the big money makers for Msft ) want the post PC (tablet etc) space for themselves and not the Windows Mobile group (Zune, Win Mo, wp7).

    1. Exactly dude.

      Somewhere in MS research someone is sitting there with a stellar tablet OS wondering WTF is going on at the company… and hopefully browsing the job ads at apple during this “presentation”

  8. Thanks to Mike Dell, profit margins have shrunk well enough below the bone that Microsoft will be lucky to sell licenses for a buck apiece. And that’s for the 64 bit professional ultimate edition.

    This isn’t a sustainable business model any longer. Post-PC means post-windows.

    1. +450.000.000 win7 licenses sold
      +542.000.000 unique logins into live every month

      Post-pc? Another meaningless buzzword from the fruity company.

      Tell me… what do you use to sync your iStuff? Right.
      Me, I don’t use anything to sync my tablet. Because it is a full device, not just a pimped media player.

  9. “as Microsoft’s Jensen Harris puts it, “icons are yesterday’s way of representing apps, tiles are today’s way of representing apps.””

    Funny, those tile look like really big icons to me. So like Microsoft: just give something a new name and call it innovation.

  10. I started to read the article and I could see it was going to take some time to get through it – all the directions and how to’s etc.

    It flooded back to me why I sought out and switched to Mac: It just works. Good luck, MS.

  11. In an effort to be fair, I went back and checked out the video.

    WHAAAAAAAT!!!!!! How long have MSft been working on this project? That was the most unprofessional – not to mention unready for Prime Time product – I have ever seen.

    You have to give those 2 crazy “kids” credit though: They were perky and put me in mind of those Judy Garland and Micky Rooney movies – “my dad has a barn and we can put the show on there.”

    It’s a good thing they didn’t have a barn; that little tablet would wind up as brown as the Zune and smelling like manure.

    Good grief! Is this like the death knell for MSft?

  12. what i noticed right off is how similar the Windows 8 “Live” anywhere automatic file sharing for applications that will come a year from now is to Lion with iCloud, coming next month.

    another great MS innovation!

    1. skydrive has been around for a while, as have other cloud file systems and apple simply copied microsoft and amazon and then claimed that they had some “great breakthrough” of technology thats been around for years.

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