Dediu pojnts out, “Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010.”
“I sometimes use the phrase ‘unforeseeable growth’ to describe the kind of growth that not even the most knowledgeable observers of a market can predict. It’s usually an indicator that fundamentally transformational change is taking place,” Dedi writes. “It’s not a sufficient condition, but it’s clear that ‘nobody saw it coming’ is a common refrain when disruptions are seen in the rear-view mirror.”
Dediu writes, “If analysts, to a man, fail, you can be sure that competitors are no wiser. This collective shrug amounts to the greatest competitive advantage any entrant could ever hope to obtain.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Add us to your bookmarks Horace. Since the iPad unveiling, we’ve consistently said the analysts’ estimates were too low.
Here are just a few examples:
• January 28, 2010
• February 03, 2010
• March 24, 2010
• April 01, 2010
• April 02, 2010
• September 01, 2010
• October 12, 2010
In fact on June 01, 2010 we wrote, “We’ve been saying that the analysts’ estimates are all too low since they began releasing estimates. Unless, due to some unforeseen event, Apple can’t make more than 10 million iPads this year, the analysts estimates listed [top estimate: 10 million by Broadpoint Amtech’s Dinesh Moorjani] are all still too low.”
On January 27, 2010, the very day the iPad was unveiled, our own SteveJack wrote in our Opinion section, “The iPad has a larger target audience than some people might think” as he explained why he, “along with millions of others” would be buying an Apple iPad. Full article here.
To top it off, in an online poll we ran starting the day of iPad’s unveiling, January 27, 2010 through Jan. 30, 2010, one out of every four MacDailyNews readers correctly predicted that Apple would sell over 10 million iPads in 2010:
How many iPads will Apple sell in 2010?
