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“The Bernstein analysts think the Android installed base could exceed that of the iPhone in a little over 5 quarters,” Savitz reports. “If that happens, they add, it could ‘undermine Apple’s powerful first mover advantage and network effect that we believe has been instruments in shaping iPhone’s popularity to date.'”
MacDailyNews Take: Current, and possibly future, legal actions are ongoing. To discount and/or ignore them would be imprudent. Of course, Toni hasn’t really proven himself to be so swift on the uptake:
• Apple’s $45.8 billion cash pile is fine right where it is, thanks – August 20, 2010
• Apple analyst smackdown: Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi vs. Piper’s Gene Munster – January 20, 2009
• Bernstein Research’s Sacconaghi not sure iPhone SDK will allow Apple to hit 10M in 2008 sales goal – March 17, 2008
• Analyst who couldn’t find ‘missing’ iPhones thinks Apple won’t hit 10m in 2008 goal – February 22, 2008
• Wise investors should ignore the Apple iPhone panic – January 30, 2008
• So-called ‘analyst’ finds his ‘missing’ iPhones – January 28, 2008
• FUD Alert: CNET article based on lone analyst’s view tries to gin up iPhone demand issue – January 25, 2008
At least, he’s not whining about buybacks.
Savitz continues, “A key reason for Android’s momentum, they add, is the fact that the iPhone is still selling through just one carrier in some countries, including the U.S., where AT&T remains the exclusive carrier. And that brings us to a point Sacconaghi has been harping on for months: they need to add versions of the phone for the large carriers that don’t currently sell it, including Verizon Wireless, Vodafone Germany, NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile. Interesting, he notes that Android is only available on 59 carriers, versus 154 for iPhone – the issue is that Apple lacks deals with some of the world’s largest wireless carriers.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The sky… oh, wait, no it isn’t. That’s not to say that the general gist is wrong (it isn’t) just that Apple has the time necessary in which to execute their plan. The cheesy knockoff isn’t going to come out on top this time. iCal us.
While AT&T sells Android devices as well as the iPhone, they haven’t invested in it to the extent that Verizon has. Verizon has basically put as much weight (if not more) behind the Android line as AT&T has behind the iPhone. Given that, and given the testy history between Apple and Verizon, I just don’t see Verizon rushing to the head of the line for iPhone contracts whenever the exclusivity agreement expires.
The point others have made about the app store is also valid. Apple’s walled-garden approach is in direct conflict with Verizon’s own control issues.
tomL:
Your strategy isn’t very sound financially. You buy a phone at a full, unsubsidised price, then you sign up with a carrier and pay a full monthly plan, month-to-month. That monthly plan normally includes a subsidy portion (which is why you can get a phone for free, if you sign for two years). Consequently, you are essentially giving free money to your carrier (Verizon).
Over the past ten years, I have been upgrading my cellphone on the very day I become eligible for a new subsidised device (usually after 15 – 18 months into a contract). On two occasions, I was compelled to break early (I was switching carriers). I took advantage of cellswapper.com, and the process was simple, straightforward and free of charge for me. I bailed out of my two-year contract with no consequences, other than giving up my new free phone with the contract. Obviously, I was able to sign up for a new contract (and a new free phone), which made the process simple and easy.
Letting the contract expire without changing anything is essentially same as donating money to your carrier. Don’t do it. Lock yourself into a new contract as soon as you possibly can, every time. It is easy to find someone to take over that contract if you need to leave early.
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who
cares?!
McDonalds sells the most burgers
but they are not the best burgers
quality vs quantity
your choice.
simple.
Good thing here in Singapore all three carriers sells the iPhone 😀
“The Bernstein analysts think the Android installed base could exceed that of the iPhone in a little over 5 quarters,” Savitz reports.
Which is utterly irrelevant. As has been pointed out many times, but never seems to sink through these analysts’ thick skulls, it’s not about Android vs. iPhone. It’s Android vs. iOS. iPod touch and iPad are clients for the App Store as well. Do you really think Android is going to beat out the total install base of all three of those devices in five quarters?
——RM
Apple is a global player in a global market. As usual these U.S.-centric “analysts” are stupid/ignorant/lying.
These analysts just don’t get it. It’s NOT about the phone or even the service provider. It’s about CONTENT, and getting that content into your life, no matter where you are at any given moment. Remember, the iPhone was an afterthought- the iPad was the main focus for many years in the R&D halls at Apple. With the addition of Airplay and the cellular network as a means by which to pipe content to ALL of your devices (TV, ‘phone’, computer, car, etc), Apple has thrown down the gauntlet and has directed a shot clearly across the bow of the cable and dish providers. With the internet as the backbone, you won’t need cable or dish to provide content to your home or car or whatever- you just fire up your iPad/iPhone and stream content to anywhere you’d like, directly from the ‘net. The problem now is getting the content creators (networks, movie studios, etc) to climb on board.
Phones as we know them will be obsolete in the upcoming few years. We will all be clutching mobile devices of some sort, capable of allowing us to communicate with one another and stream content to and from our devices as we wish. So the focus on who will sell more ‘phones’ and on which network is misguided at best- all Apple needs is ONE reliable, ubiquitous network over which the bits and bytes can fly!
Regardless of the quantity of Android variations, on however many carriers, the fact remains that every Android sale is a lost iPhone sale. iPhone users know that their overall experience is better than that provided by Android devices, but as with Windows, Android is “good enough”, especially when a buyer wants Verizon, Sprint or T-Mobile as a carrier. I have little doubt that iPhone would prevail if available on all carriers, unless phone makers significantly cut the cost of their Android devices… and that is just what they will do when Apple does expand to other carriers. Market share DOES make a difference. It IS important that Apple not let Android surpass it in market share. And for God’s sake, get those patent infringement case cranked up. A win there is possibly the only thing that can stem the trend Android is on.
Exactly Feral. just a bunch of talk.
Look at what Verizon is doing. They are going to be adding an app store they control and profit from on all smartphones. You actually think Apple will be willing to do so?
You think Apple is willing to put Vcast or any native Verizon app on the iPhone?
Android was suppose to be this huge open system that deters away control from the carrier and put the user experience back to the consumer.
http://www.androidnmobile.com/android-is-not-open-at-all/254.html
http://techcrunch.com/2010/09/09/android-open/
A couple of things that are rarely mentioned. First, how long do people keep their phones? 2 years? What makes everyone believe that whoever buys an Android phone now won’t switch to an iPhone in 2 years. Unlike PCs there is less lockin. So what if Android gets a lead on market share. You think Apple is going to sit still? They are running a marathon while everyone else is sprinting and will die with their low margins and customer dissatisfaction.
Second, you think Apple isn’t keenly aware of how iPhones are selling in countries where they are on multiple carriers versus countries on one carrier? Their data is probably more accurate than any analyst. I think Apple should keep using the iPhone against Verizon and only offer to them after getting other US carriers on board. Verizon tries to create some kind of value in their pipes and usually screw the customer and the hardware partners. Apple is too smart to let that happen.
Verizon doesn’t want the iPhone. They only want phones they can control. Their current ads use the slogan “Rule the Air” but they are NOT talking about their customers!
last time I checked ALL iPhones are made by Apple. Compare that to any single version of Android and Iphone kills just about all of them. How many phones does Google make? Nada. None! Apple learned a lesson having Schmuckt from Goole on their board. Apple was looking for 1% worldwide in smart phones. I believe they made their goal. I bet if you look at computer sales it is the same Microsoft doesn’t make PC’s they let HP Dell Acer and the like make the hardware. Each one spec are going to behave differently with the software. Apple may only have a very small percentage of desktop os share compared to windows, but none of said PC makers is close to the size of Apple. Apple owns every step from hardware to software so that they all work well together. Truth be told my best Win machine runs in Parallels on my Mac. I have met many people who have switched from PC to Mac, but never the other way. Once you go Mac, you don’t ever go back to PC.
Verizon wants to usurp the App store with their crappy Vcast shit, I think this is the hold up.
Verizon is to greedy to give into Apple’s rules of consumer rights for the iPhone. They will pass on it again thinking Android is all they need.
Just give it to Sprint and others that would be happy to have the iPhone. If Verizon want’s to make a mistake, again, that’s up to them.
So they’re comparing a hardware device, the iPhone, with a platform, Android? Seems a little short sighted. Especially since iOS as a platform is still outselling Android.
These people seem to worry about market share for a single device type as if Android outselling iPhone in anyway, shape or form is some kind of threat to the iOS platform.
Whatever…. look at Canada iPhone is on all wireless carriers but their marketshare isn’t even going up. With Windows Phone 7 coming out who needs iPhones anymore since they are getting dull anyways.
From now on bing and decide. http://www.bing.com
MG Siegler over at Crunch is probably right – Verizon wants to load its crap and services on the iPhone and Jobs won’t let that happen.
if that is the case, Apple should cut deals with Sprint and TMobile and isolate Verizon. people will switch to one of the other three to get an iPhone, and that will serve them right.
Verizon is the biggest a-hole pig telco of all.
Apple under Steve Jobs looks through the windshield, not the rear-view mirror. When Verizon adheres to international standards, Apple will launch a phone compatible with their network.
Verizon iPhone…
Coming Soon
@Chaz
one solution might be to allow a carrier to have their own app, permanently embedded on the home screen. It would be completely optional to visit, but it would allow you to see data usage, pay your bill and so forth, and give the carriers an opportunity to sell things through their own store.
…and Sprint!!!…
Apple should just simply ramp up supply to add T-Mobile (GSM), then Sprint…. then BAM!!! VZ. Choice of carrier is still THE main reason to NOT to switch. Who cares if iPhone 4 can do something if the carrier totally stinks in a particular location.
alas, it’s an eventuality. It’s amazing that Apple is keeping up as much as they have been… iPhone 4, iPads, iPods, Macs…
versus Android that is made up of a collection of OEMs battling it out against each other on the same and different networks, Apple simply just keeps ramping up production at a reasonable rate.
I don’t think VZ iPhone is coming until 2012 at the earliest. T-Mobile will be the next client… although not as big, big enough to pile up more $$$$$$$$$$$$$$, and thus build even more iPhones for VZ and Sprint…
I live in a country where the iPhone is available from 4 different carriers. All of them have multi-week waiting times for them because worldwide DEMAND continues to outstrip Apple’s capacity to SUPPLY units.
As long as current and projected demand exceeds supply capacity there is a limited business case behind introducing a new model on a new technological platform (CDMA vs. GSM), especially when it would involve functional compromises due to CDMA’s inability to handle simultaneous voice and data streams.
Be sure that Apple has prototypes waiting in the wings that have CDMA capability. They also have the next few GSM and LTE models with enhanced features out for testing. As a consumer who works in an area where 4G/LTE is available today I want the latest/greatest tech right now, but from a stockholder perspective these new models will not (and absolutely should not) be released until supply comes much closer to catching up with demand.
Here we go again…
License Mac OS X…
Make a CDMA iPhone…
No way, José!
Apple does NOT put old, dead tech on life support.
Apple KILLS old tech like SCSI, ADB, floppies, VGA ports and CDMA.
@Predrag.
If someone wants an iPhone, most will NOT settle for an Android phone.
They might if the signal their local iPhone provider provides stinks, Otherwise…
No Friggin Way.