Analysts: To ward off Android threat, Apple needs a Verizon iPhone

16 years ago

In a research note this morning, Bernstein Research analysts Toni Sacconagh and Pierre Ferragu “note that the daily run-rate for Android phone sales has more than tripled in the last seven months, to 200,000 phones a day from 60,000. They estimate that 53 million Android phones will ship this year – a number so big that he contends Android alone will drive smart phone sales well above recent market forecasts for the sector as a whole of 47% this year and 23% next year. The analysts think the numbers will be more like 55% this year and 30% next year,” Erci Savitz reports for Barron’s. “And they contend that Android and Apple combined could be as much as 52% of the overall smart phone market by the end of 2011, up from 18% at the end of 2009. Their conclusion is that ‘a more head-to-head battle for market share might emerge earlier’ than previously thought.”

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“The Bernstein analysts think the Android installed base could exceed that of the iPhone in a little over 5 quarters,” Savitz reports. “If that happens, they add, it could ‘undermine Apple’s powerful first mover advantage and network effect that we believe has been instruments in shaping iPhone’s popularity to date.'”

MacDailyNews Take: Current, and possibly future, legal actions are ongoing. To discount and/or ignore them would be imprudent. Of course, Toni hasn’t really proven himself to be so swift on the uptake:
• Apple’s $45.8 billion cash pile is fine right where it is, thanks – August 20, 2010
• Apple analyst smackdown: Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi vs. Piper’s Gene Munster – January 20, 2009
• Bernstein Research’s Sacconaghi not sure iPhone SDK will allow Apple to hit 10M in 2008 sales goal – March 17, 2008
• Analyst who couldn’t find ‘missing’ iPhones thinks Apple won’t hit 10m in 2008 goal – February 22, 2008
• Wise investors should ignore the Apple iPhone panic – January 30, 2008
• So-called ‘analyst’ finds his ‘missing’ iPhones – January 28, 2008
• FUD Alert: CNET article based on lone analyst’s view tries to gin up iPhone demand issue – January 25, 2008

At least, he’s not whining about buybacks.

Savitz continues, “A key reason for Android’s momentum, they add, is the fact that the iPhone is still selling through just one carrier in some countries, including the U.S., where AT&T remains the exclusive carrier. And that brings us to a point Sacconaghi has been harping on for months: they need to add versions of the phone for the large carriers that don’t currently sell it, including Verizon Wireless, Vodafone Germany, NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile. Interesting, he notes that Android is only available on 59 carriers, versus 154 for iPhone – the issue is that Apple lacks deals with some of the world’s largest wireless carriers.”