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Zaky: An in-depth look at Apple’s September quarter

Apple Online Store“As the market continues to fully digest Apple’s (AAPL) recently reported fiscal Q3 earnings, I would like to take a look at what’s in store for the September quarter,” Andy Zaky writes for Seeking Alpha. “Since there’s very little concrete data in the form of research reports, channel checks, and order tracking being that it’s so early on in the quarter, I’ve analyzed Apple’s guidance and the general seasonal and yearly growth trends to form a pretty reliable picture of what investors should expect to see when Apple releases results this October.”

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“The biggest highlight in Apple’s fiscal Q3 earnings report was its uncharacteristically aggressive revenue guidance,” Zaky writes. “The street was generally looking for Apple to provide guidance in the range of $16 to $16.5 billion, and Apple far exceeded those estimates with their incredible $18 billion estimate. Everyone knows Apple’s management to be overly conservatively when providing forward looking statements. So to see an $18 billion estimate come out of Apple was clearly the biggest surprise I’ve witnessed in a long time.”

Zaky writes, “Yet, as many Wall Street analysts have noted in their estimates, there’s reason to breathe caution into the air when relying on Apple’s guidance this quarter. I believe Apple’s management has become slightly more aggressive with its estimates simply because I don’t see where Apple will be able to derive the revenue to far exceed its own expectations this time around. The street is generally modeling for Apple report $3.95 in EPS on $18.29 billion in revenue. While I think the street is a tad bit low in its forecast, I don’t believe Apple will beat estimates by quite as wide of margin as it has in recent quarters. I’m currently modeling for Apple to report $4.45 in EPS on $19.1 billion in revenue.”

Much more in the full article – recommended – here.

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