In a note to clients today, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster raised estimates on Apple (AAPL) across the board:
• Estimates for September to EPS of $1.17 vs. Street at $1.11, and revenue of $8.37b vs. Street at $8.07b: These revisions are based on the most recent NPD growth rates; we are incrementally more confident in Sept. quarter Mac, iPod and iPhone units.
• 2.8 million Mac units (vs. 2.5m previously): Through the first two months of the Sept. quarter (July and Aug.), Mac NPD data is up 32% y/y. In the month of July, NPD data was 43% y/y and in Aug. units were up 23% y/y. However, we note that Aug. was a tough comp, as a redesigned iMac was released in Aug-07. But even if we assume continued y/y growth of 23% in the month of Sept. (which we believe is conservative), the overall y/y growth rate for the full quarter would come in at 29%, implying 2.8m Macs in the Sept. quarter.
• 11 million iPod units (vs. 10.8m previously): Through the first two months of the Sept. quarter (July and Aug.), iPod NPD data is up 16% y/y. If we assume continued y/y growth of 16% in the month of Sept., then factor in the average overshoot of 7% that NPD has had on actual iPod units over the last 8 quarters. These factors result in an overall growth rate of 9%, implying just over 11m iPods.
• 5.0 million iPhone units (vs. 4.1m previously): In our upwardly revised model we have increased our iPhone unit estimate to 5m from 4.1m for the Sept. quarter. We are more comfortable with a 5m unit estimate given Apple sold over 1m units in the first three days of availability of the iPhone 3G (July 11-13).
Piper Jaffray maintains their “Buy” rating on AAPL (“Alpha List”) with a $250 price target.