PiperJaffrey: Vista sales in March quarter ‘could put downward pressure on Mac market share’

17 years ago

“The launch of Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Vista operating system will have a negative effect on Apple’s share of the personal computer market over the next several months, according to checks performed by research and investment firm PiperJaffray,” Slash Lane reports for AppleInsider.

Lane reports, “In a research note released to clients on Wednesday, Sr. Analyst Gene Munster said that while a survey of 50 Best Buy retail stores around the country found that Vista sales have not met expectations, PC sales have still risen as a result of the software roll-out. ‘Of the 50 stores we surveyed, 80 percent of Best Buy stores indicated that they have sold less copies of Vista than they had expected,’ the analyst wrote. But at the same time, he said, 72 percent of the stores saw an increase in Windows PC sales since the software launched.”

Lane reports, “Munster, who attributes the surge to pent-up demand for PCs with Vista pre-installed, is forecasting for a spike in Windows PC sales during the March calendar quarter, which ‘could put downward pressure on Mac market share.’ More specifically, the analyst expects Mac market share to decline from 2.5 percent in December to 2.3 percent in March.

Lane reports, “Still, Munster said he remains confident that Apple in 2007 will gain share overall, helped from the industrywide shift toward portables where it currently excels. The analyst also sees potential for Apple to seize the opportunity presented by the launch of Vista to gain mind share with consumers. ‘Although many features of Vista are already available on Apple’s current operating system, 10.4 Tiger, Apple is preparing 10.5 Leopard for a Spring release,” Munster told clients. “With the release of Leopard, Mac market share will benefit from upward pressure from slight pent-up demand.'”

“The analyst said the release of Leopard will also mark a turning point for investors, who will shift their focus back on the Mac chapter of the Apple story. The launch of Tiger in April 2005 added $100m in revenue to the company’s June quarter, he said, with 2 million copies shipping in the first month of availability,” Lane reports. “Since Tiger’s release, which went on to sell 7 million copies in its first year on the market, the Mac OS X installed base has grown 25 percent from 16 million users to about 20 million users, Munster said. Similarly, he expects that 40 percent of Mac users to upgrade to Leopard in the first year of availability.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: No surprises here. Obviously, if Vista causes enough more PCs to be sold due to pent-up demand, Mac market share could drop even if Mac units sales rise. As always, what should be most important to developers, investors, reporters, and other interested parties is that Apple Mac OS X’s installed base continues to grow, now 20 million strong, and tends to be more affluent than PC users on average.

On June 3, 2005, Wizzard Software explained why they believe the Macintosh market is important as they prepared the release AT&T Natural Voices for Apple’s Mac OS X:

According to a statement released earlier this year, Apple Computer reported their 2005 first quarterly revenue and net income as the highest in the history of their company, with 74% revenue growth. Apple shipped 1,046,000 Macintosh units during this quarter, representing a 26% increase in CPU units over the year-ago quarter. According to US News and World Report, Macintosh owners buy 30% more software than their Windows counterparts. Further, Macintosh software comprises over 18% of all software sold, according to the Software and Information Industry Association.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan” for the heads up.]