“It’s a truism about the computer industry that when your competitors are talking in public about how they’re not worried about you, they’re doing a lot of worrying about you in private. So perhaps Apple should take it as a huge compliment that within the space of a week, senior executives of both Dell and Creative have taken time out of their busy schedules to mention how they aren’t concerned by the announcements the company made at this year’s Macworld Expo in San Francisco,” Ian Betteridge writes for eWEEK.
“For Creative’s Sim Wong Hoo, the iPod shuffle is ‘a big let down … worse than the cheapest Chinese player.’ For Dell’s Kevin Rollins, the iPod is ‘a fad’ and the Mac mini poses no threat to the company’s 17 percent market share,” Betteridge writes. “Some analysts have already cautioned that both men might be mistaken about the impact that the iPod and Mac mini might have on the industry. In a posting on his blog, Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg called Wong Hoo’s comments ‘foolish.’ ‘Creative doesn’t get it and is going to dismiss Apple to their own peril. … You can see why [it’s] going to get beat up in this market pretty bad.’ Gartenberg’s colleague Joe Wilcox described the Mac mini as ‘a potential suitor to Windows users, particularly those who have iPods and enjoy the experience delivered by Apple.'”
Betteridge writes, “It’s easy to see the Mac mini as an extension of the iPod platform, rather than the other way around. And this is what offers the greatest threat to other computer makers, for if Apple is able to persuade a significant number of those customers coming into its stores to buy an iPod to walk out with a Mac mini as well, it could gain the two or three market share points that would make it a serious player in the PC market once again.”
“What will worry the other PC companies is that, in a market where everyone except Dell has struggled to make money, Apple has long been highly profitable with only a 2 percent to 3 percent market share. Should the company boost this to 4 or even 5 percent, its profits—and thus its ability to increase its spending on marketing and development—would also be significantly increased, raising the prospect of the company simply being able to blow away its less profitable rivals,” Betteridge writes. “Such a revitalized Apple could, over the long term, become a challenger to even the 17 percent of the worldwide market that is currently owned by Dell. While Rollins may be right to dismiss Apple in the short term, you can bet that he’ll be keeping a sharp eye on how well the Mac mini is doing.”
Full article with much more here.
MacDailyNews Take: You can bet Apple’s Mac mini is sending shivers through Wintel box assemblers’ boardrooms worldwide. If Apple can execute well, 2005 could very well be the year of the Mac in addition to being the real breakout year of the iPod.
Oh, this is going to be so much fun to watch!
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um…woo-hoo
Dell’s downside — they live and die with Microsoft Windows.
Dell tried to sell Linux boxes for a while, but gave up when the support issues exploded – Linux is just not ready for the normal end-user.
BUT OSx is ready for the normal end user.
Safe, secure and stable….
Yup, it’s going to be a really really tough year for the box assemblers – and just wait until the new lower cost Apple laptops hit the market.
(The PowerBook reached end of life cycle yesterday – so something is happening!
I have converted about 15 friends and family to Mac over the last 5 years. My most formiddable holdout (we all have one don’t we?) has just caved in under the no-brainer of the Mac mini and is finally go to go apple!
I think that’s why we haven’t really seen a sub $500 Mac until now. OS 10.3 has proven it’s ready for a worldwide userbase. It’s taken it’s lumps up to know, and blossomed beautifully. It’s now time to take off the gloves and start bringing more into the fold. I was talking to a friend tonight about why Apple would decide to jump into the low end market after so long saying they weren’t interested in it, couldn’t or wouldn’t do it. I think it’s more than just the iPod Halo factor. 3 things had to fall into place, and that was just one of them. The other 2 had to be the following…
OS X is finally at a point where it is ready for the world to use it. And it’s time to show Windows users that there is a secure, stable, easy to use, and complete alternative to Windows. As great as OS X has been, up til now, it’s not been quite…there…yet.
Lastly, Steve had to find a way to put a Mac in every home and be damned certain that by doing so, it wasn’t going to break Apple’s back. They’ve found that solution and put it together as the Mac Mini. It’s small, affordable, cute, comes with OS X, Just Plain Works, and 70%+ of average households can actually afford to get one (or 2) of them.
You’ve got the Hat Trick which is what’s got Apple top-of-mind with people through the iPod, you’ve got the Mac Mini which will pull them in, and OS X which will let them know it’s Okay to stay, and they’re gonna love it here.
How could this not have been planned all along?
Dell has to be worried. They depend on Intel (and others) for the hardware and MS for the OS. Their value-added is just putting together other companies’ stuff in an efficient maner. As long as those other companies’ stuff is perceived to be good or just OK then Dell can survive. Intel hardware is having problems (they are recanting their mantra about faster is better), and people are waking up to the inherent problems with the MS OS. Dell has nowhere to go if Intel and MS slip, nothing to offer on their own. There will be no reason for their existence. They could just evaporate (sublimate maybe?!) relatively quickly. So quickly that there won’t even be time to give the shareholders their money back. Dell has to be worried.
This post brought to you by the magic word “days” as in the possible lifetime left to Dell can be measured in days.
Funny that his comments also lack innovation, just like the entire Dull company. Magic word: top, as in Apple is going to come out on top. Woohoo!
Just goes to show – any company called ‘creative’ is exactly the opposite!
UNCREATIVE!
Regarding DELL – wel the’re a losy cause.
If windblows longhorn is finally released and it’s a buggy piece of shit betaware (which is normal for M$ – to released unfinished software to it’s ‘sheep’ market) – then DELL will be in BIG trouble!!
After all these years of being laugh at, we Mac Users should enjoy the coming melt down in the M$ World. Just sit back and enjoy it Boys!!
Even a 2-3 percent increase in sales for Apple, and the corporate PC boys will start to eat themselves up.
Its going to be sweet!!!
Step 1: Create a high quality OS and hardware. Base it on a *nix and standards, so the alpha geeks notice, find it useful and help improve it.
Step 2: Create a computer accessory that people use daily to experience something powerfully emotional, like music. Make software for it that runs on OS X and Windows, so Windows users can get a trial of our quality. Make it in a price range where the competition can undercut only by pocket change. Watch the public learn that a price premium is sometimes worth it. Watch the competition fall back on the FUD routine instead of making something great.
Step 3: Release a Mac that the competition can undercut only by pocket change. Watch the competition fall back on the FUD routine.
What will happen? Personally, I know of more than 12 Windows users who have ordered a Mac mini. I expect that by then end of Q2 2005, the Mac will have 5 to 7 percent of new computer sales. That’s enough to make the press think it’s a revolution. Then Tiger happens…
MyCrowSoft is the steam engine of OS’s and Apple is Fuel Cells. It’s time for a paradigm shift. The course is set and the pieces are in place for the revolution (or evolution depending on how you see it). I have the feeling that the reason M$ isn’t dropping support for Office on Mac is that when it’s all said and done, they’re going to be nothing more than a developer for OSX!!!
Dell… heh. What language was it again where Dell is the word for slut? Or was that english?
The techs like to say “Hey man I’m playing with a Dell on my desk right now”. Of course they’re both full of viruses.
Magic word : taken. As in “You bought a Dell, you’ve been taken”.
Dell is a gorilla in the enterprise market and there is nothing to suggest that Apple will penetrate into most offices YET. Our IT Manager is the biggest Mac fan but even he agreed that the sensible choice for most businesses is PC just because there is a greater range of business software available on Windows. Going it alone with Macs just makes it more difficult because of the lack of a compatible products.
I think Dell is still safe for a few more years yet.
Longhorn is what will push the Mac mini (or its descendants) over the top. Have you ever looked at the minimum recommended hardware required to run Longhorn? It’s substantial. And no el-cheapo PC is gonna be able to run it, whereas MacOS will run just dandy on the lowest end Mac. When that becomes apparent to the PC shopper, they will come to Apple in droves.
NEWSFLASH! If Microsoft starts losing market share in a big way they start feeling the pressure.
That means windows and office get cheaper.
Board members start getting replaced.
RandD will be under heavy pressure to deliver a strong product.
They will start snaching up rival companys.
Customer opinion will matter more.
In other words a smaller microshaft is a very dangerous m$.
This message is brought to you by the word: competition.
And by the symbol: $.
As I’ve said before, Windows will be used in the enterprise for a good while yet. Providing your tech teams secure the network boundary, patching and anti-virus updates happen in the background, and proper controls are put in place so that people don’t have too many permissions, Windows works in large scale environments. The Mac is gunning for the non-gaming home user and small to medium business, places where there isn’t a department of techies ensuring things run smoothly.
Dell can easily survive on it’s corporate sales, so don’t expect it to fold in on itself like Gateway. Whatever happens, Dell and HP are the two players in the market that will survive the next few years, simply because they are so prominent now. This article is right in one thing though. Apple with 7-8% market share is going to have huge resources to think about what’s coming next. That really has to worry some other tech companies.
If it is actually reasonable to even wish apple would jump 3% in its market share, does apple have the output to keep up?
I hope so.
God, this year has a good chance of being pure awesome.
MagicWord is Choice, as in, People will once again have a choice.
Cunning Linguist, that is absolutely brilliant! I love a good pun, and you even managed to tie one in with your “alias.” I’m laughing so hard it hurts.
Dell and Micro$oft’s only intentions are to make money and gain power so they can make more money. They are smart enough to know that the majority of people are sheep and can easily be led to the slaughter.
It’s only about money…nothing else.
Apple, on the other hand, at least has proven the sense that they at least care about the individual enough to keep continuous improvements to their hardware and software. Sure they want to make money, but it appears to me that they wish to change the world much more than they wish to make money. Dell and Micro$oft will never have the peace and satisfaction that Apple has, ever. All of them have more money than is possible to spend anyhow, so why not go down in history being known for pushing the envelope and inspiring people and dropping jaws on a sustained 6 month interval like Apple has. They create more unadmitted secret envy than anyone on the planet. Can’t you imagine Bill Gates and Michael Dell trying to sleep peacefully at night, knowing that Apple is gonna knock their socks off every 6 months. It has to secretly kill them inside each and every day and night. I love it. How can a small market share company beat them to market each and every single time?? Ha! That is another reason why I love Apple.
A lot of insightful comments about Dell. PC makers are in a very delicate position in regards to their dependence on Microsoft. If Redmond sneezes, the hardware makers catch the flu. Profit margins are so thin due to the commoditization of PC’s that any slight upset in could result in a sort of “Butterfly Effect”, huge ripples of disruption spreading throughout the industry. The “Butterfly Effect” refers to chaos theory that a small change someplace could have very large effects elsewhere, using weather prediction as an example: “If a butterfly flutters its wings in Beijing, we’ll get thunderstorms in New York”, or something along those lines.
The reference to Beijing is highly appropriate, because I firmly believe that Chinese manufacturers are going to drive the changes in the PC market in coming years, and are the biggest threat to Dell and HP’s PC business. Witness Lenovo of China’s purchase of IBM’s PC business. Has anyone here heard anything more about the agreement among China, Japan, and South Korea to jointly develop their own unified version of Linux? If this comes to pass, and we see floods of Linux PC’s coming out of Asia, then this is probably the nightmare scenario that keeps Gates and Ballmer up at night. Asia could be the force that drives Microsoft out of the OS business, but with a cash reserve of about $64 billion, Microsoft as a company is not in any imminent danger of evaporating any time soon. They have the resources to remake themselves into any kind of company that so suits them. Likewise Dell may or may not have the resources to get out of the PC business and perhaps focus on consumer electronics or something else. The others may not be so fortunate.
@Cunning Linguist who said:
“Dell… heh. What language was it again where Dell is the word for slut? Or was that english?”
In Dutch “del” means “slut”. I have got one on my desk here, a Dell that is, but I like to do things safely, so I have turned it off, put it aside and made some place for my PowerBook. Now I finally can get to work!
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If someone released a $500 periferal that would allow Windows PC users to surf the net safely, it would most likely sell like crazy.
That is what the Mac mini is. Yes, it is so much more than that, but the concept of safe net surfing should be a boon. Let’s hope Apple markets it this way.
iVeritas, that was very, very well said.