John Dvorak has outlined the future in his latest column for PC Magazine. According to Dvorak’s crystal ball:
1. Apple releases OS X86 as a proprietary system for its boxes. It’s immediately pirated and goes into the wild.
MacDailyNews Note: This was an easy “prediction,” as it seems to have already happened. See Report: Apple Mac OS X 10.4.1 for Intel hits piracy sites (June 11, 2005) for more information.
2. Apple squawks about the piracy to draw attention to it, thus increasing the piracy, creating a virtual or shadow beta test. The complaining is necessary to assure Microsoft that Apple does not intend to compete with Windows. This keeps Microsoft selling MS Office for the Mac.
MacDailyNews Note: We haven’t heard any official “squawking” from Apple, yet, although it is very early. See Is Apple setting up the ultimate “Switcher” campaign by preparing to let Mac OS X speak for itself? (June 10, 2005) for more.
3. There are driver issues that get resolved by the hobbyists, and OS X86 now remains in shadow beta, being tested in a process that is apparently outside of Apple’s control, but is in fact carefully monitored by the company.
MacDailyNews Note: Sounds plausible.
4. Once the system stabilizes in the wild, Apple announces that it cannot do anything about the piracy situation and that it’s apparent that everyone wants this OS rather than Windows. It’s “the will of the public.” Apple then makes the stupendous announcement that it will sell a generic boxed OS, “for the rest of you!” One claim is that it is a solution to spyware.
MacDailyNews Note: This, too, sounds plausible.
5. Microsoft freaks out and stops development of Office for the Mac. But in the interim, while not selling OS X86 “for the rest of you,” Apple has been developing a complete Office suite, which it announces at the same time.
MacDailyNews Note: Interesting, but would Apple perhaps release their “Office” before or after Microsoft freaked, if they do indeed freak.
6. Spyware and viruses emerge on the Mac.
MacDailyNews Note: Anything’s possible, but even if something did happen, it would pale in scope to the morass of the Windows platform. Mac OS X is just too battened down and looked at by too many people for too many years for tens of thousands of viruses to emerge for Mac OS X.
Dvorak writes, “It is easy to predict what will happen after that. To many Mac aficionados the uniqueness of the platform will be lost forever, and who knows what they’ll do for fun. But one thing is for sure: The big problem that Mac users will have to face is the emergence of virus code and spyware aimed at them. It’s possible that the Mac users going into this new world will be like the American Indians when confronted by smallpox-contaminated blankets. Most Mac users are ignorant about this plague and ill prepared to deal with it.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The insistence by some that if Mac OS X had the market share of Windows that viruses and malware would be just as bad is just illogical. There are millions and millions of Mac OS X computers on the ‘Net and zero viruses. Do the math. Use common sense. Mac OS X is simply more secure than Windows by design.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple may be prepping for attack on Microsoft in late 2006 – June 12, 2005
Report: Apple Mac OS X 10.4.1 for Intel hits piracy sites – June 11, 2005
Dvorak: Apple’s move to Intel could kill Linux – June 07, 2005
Dvorak: ‘Apple should be stronger, but Mac mystique will wane’ in wake of Intel switch – June 07, 2005
Dvorak predicts the ‘MacIntel’; says ‘Apple must go with Intel or risk its future’ – April 07, 2003
Dvorak spews latest prediction: Apple to go Intel within 18 months – March 19, 2003
Is Apple setting up the ultimate “Switcher” campaign by preparing to let Mac OS X speak for itself? – June 10, 2005
While some of John Bonehead Dvorak’s predictions are not hard to believe, he simply does not understand operating systems and security. If he did, he would not predict that viruses would become prevalent.
90% of Windows viruses would be stopped cold if Microsoft would simply turn off “Hide Extensions of Know File Types” as a default setting. Gee why did I just get sent a .PIF/.SCR file?
Sounds plausible, virus maybe too. But all in all ‘Tis a good time to be a Mac user!
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>his new world will be like the American Indians when confronted by smallpox-contaminated blankets>
It did not happen!
I do believe, for all the reasons outlined many times on MDN that OSX is way more secure, but I secretly worry that there’s some aspect that no one has thought of yet that will be exploited in the future. True, it won’t be on the scale of 98,000 known viruses chasing Windows users, but I think we really don’t know for sure until we are in the battle. Yes I know there’s 25 million Mac users, but what we all hope is about to happen will make that lok like small potatoes.
Remember, when they claim security by obscurity, remind them that MS is claiming security by design for Longhorn, just like they’ve promised that Longhorn will have many of the other things that are already in OS X.
Of course, like many of the things that are already in OS X, it will probably be dropped from Longhorn.
Why do they think failed promises are better than consistent deliveries?
John Dvorak is still a schmuck!
As could be easily inferred from Steve’s keynote at WWDC, there are 16 million Mac OS X systems in use. Mac OS X has been out for 5 years now. There still isn’t a single virus, trojan, worm, or spyware that has been found in the wild in all that time.
That would seem to indicate that OS X is indeed more secure by design. Sure, the first virus will emerge sooner or later, but I think OS X’s track record should normally be like getting hit with a clue stick…but the Windows-infested do have thick skulls.
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I wouldn’t rule out viruses or spyware in the future, but the fact that it has not happened yet has nothing to do with market share and everything to do with the *nix foundation. If it was that easy to write an OSX virus somebody would have already done it to:
a) be the first to hack a Mac and have bragging rights to shut up the “Mac zealots” AND/OR
b) wipe out hundreds of thousands of dollars of iTunes libraries across the country
The alleged “Intel 10.4.1” developer leak is a fake….check the other sites, it is not available on any of the major pirate networks.
explain to me again why linux has barely any virii? Because of marketshare?
I thought it was because the linux users were the ones writing the virii.. why would they infect their own OS?
No matter how I look at this, I just can’t see Apple releasing OSX to run on generic x86 machines, mainly because most of their profits come from hardware sales, so to allow any machine to run it would seem to be a poorly thought out idea.
If in the future the Mac marketshare grew exponentially and hardware sales were very good, I could see Apple putting the final nail in the coffin of Microsoft by releasing it, but if you believe that Longhorn will be an utter flop as an OS in 2 years, then Apple won’t have to release OSX for other machines, people will finally have had enough and come looking for a better computer (enter the Mac).
The other obscure possibility is that Apple will eventually strike a deal with Intel where all the latest chips come out on the Mac first and are then available for other manufacturers 4-6 months later. This would be much like wireless phone makers who give particular phone carriers an exclusive for a few months, such as only Cingular having the Motorola RAZR V3. It certainly raises the phone sales due to the perceived limited supply and exclusivity of having one. The real money comes from the initial sales and then they drop the price so everyone can have one, while the bleeding-edge user starts looking for another exclusive phone in a year, hence more high-priced sales.
Anyway, my 2¢ worth,
SirROM
MW: body, as in “the body of evidence has yet to be seen”
All he needs is one simi-successful virus for OS X for him to say “see, I told you so!” Then again, many have been waiting for five years to say that.
I sat down with DVorak when we wrote thi article…beforehand, we smoked a BIG FAT HOOTER and laughed the entire time….
DVORAK….CHILL ON THE WEED MAN, CHILL
It’s interesting that Dvorak managed six predictions for the same company he once said was dead. Not bad for a corpse.
SG – “wipe out hundreds of thousands of dollars of iTunes libraries across the country”
you gave me a plausable idea, thanks
ZZZZZZZ
*snort*
*mumble*
slow day in the news, John? Why don’t you write an article about Michael Jackson or something.
Don’t say “OS X will never get malware” when talking to people. I even agree that there probably be a few in the future. And then I point out that there are a few so far, but only in MS Office and you can just turn off macros to avoid them and they can’t touch the system files without your an admin entering their password. Doesn’t that say something? The only malware for OS X is in a MS product, but the OS X design itself protects the system files from MS stupidity.
Of course, there’s probably unfound vulnerabilities in OS X. That’s why we see security patches (after they are found). And someday one of them will probably lead to an exploit in the wild — Probably on unpatched machines, so do your part and keep patched — But it will happen less often and probably do much less harm. Why?
1) It already has a much better security model than Windows. This has been proven for years now — And many more years if you count it’s OS relatives that share most of the security model and (sometimes share the same code): BSD, Linux, Unix, Linux.
2) Apple was willing to toss reverse compatibility. I don’t know if they did this for security, but it did provide a little bit more. They tossed users a temporary consolation prize, Classic, that will be gone soon. When given the choice between reverse compatibility and security, MS appears to always sacrifice security.
3) Apple has made better decisions about usability versus security. For example, in OS X, you have to authorize to manipulate system files and settings. Some people complain about this, but it prevents malware from modifying these files. It’s only a little bit more annoying than the “protected” files warning you get when you try to look at system and program files in Windows XP. But it also actually works. And just how are those Windows system and program files protected? Oh, with a warning that I have to click around, but doesn’t actually stop any malware from modifying the files…
4) From what I’ve seen, Apple has been much more responsive in fixing holes. Part of this comes from OS X’s relatives in the open source community, some of it comes from Apple giving a crap about it’s security reputation and some of it comes from having a good design in the first place so you have less worries about breaking something for users when you fix a hole. Windows, however, has even had holes open for years and years that it’s only addressed by suing people who write about the holes (because they don’t want to break something for users to fix the hole created by bad design).
But I blather on.
You have one company with a lousy security record and one company with a good one. One company with a bad security design and one company with a good one.
Apple and the whole Mac community has a ZERO TOLERANCE attitude to viruses and malware. Anyone creating a ‘successful’ virus – and I’ll bet they have been trying – will find it knocked on the head so quickly it won’t have been worth the effort. So, in the final analysis – WHY WILL THEY BOTHER? Probably they won’t.
…and they might even turn their minds to doing something constructive!
Because he was just so right about going to the Intel platform…
Dvorak just wants readers and apparently got them with his current batch of Mac articles.
Just chill and see what happens.
WHY WILL THEY BOTHER? Probably they won’t.
hmmm… I wonder if Ballmer would be clever enough to to initiate a new Macintosh Insecurity Division.
Hey, finally MS and Symantec can get along on something: writing virii to screw Steve Jobs!
Given the ‘roadmap’ for Longhorn, I don’t think you have to worry about MS producing any ‘good’ virii for at least 3 years..
John Dvorak is a big, fat idiot.
OS X is more secure.
There may be some viruses, but they’ll be easily stopped before doing the kind of damage Windows allows.
IDIOT!
Longhorn BBQ at my place!