“Apple’s new Mac mini could be about to do for the personal computer market what its iconic iPod has achieved for the music industry and the role of the internet,” Perry Gourley reports for The Scotsman. “Apple’s latest product is being tipped to shake up the personal computer market and dramatically speed up the advent of the digital home. When the Mac mini arrives in the shops in the US later this month, and probably next month in the UK, it seems destined to become another must-have gadget.”
“Ian Harris, deputy editor of MacFormat magazine, thinks the Mac mini could herald the start of a new era in the computer market,” Gourley reports. “‘Apple has been known for making expensive computers which people have been prepared to pay more for because of what they offer,’ he said. ‘But the iPod has given the mainstream market a taste for Apple. PC users who like the simplicity, elegance and style of their iPods will be tempted to buy a Mac mini.'”
Gourley reports, “‘We believe the Mac mini will increase the percentage of iPod-toting Windows users who purchase a Mac by almost threefold,’ suggests Needham analyst Charles Wolf. What Apple does next increasingly dictates future trends across the media and consumer electronics industries. Success for the Mac mini could have much wider implications than just fuelling Apple’s already rocketing earnings figures… Apple appears on the brink of making a real assault on the personal computer market, where it currently has only a 3% share. That assault comes on the back of the phenomenal success of the iPod music player, which has created what has been dubbed the ‘halo effect’ for Apple. That is driving significant sales increases across Apple’s product range as more consumers become Apple devotees. Its latest quarterly figures, released last week, were the proof of the pudding. Sales of Mac computers have topped a million – up 26% on last year, compared with a predicted rise across the computer industry of about 10%.”
“Bank of America analyst Keith Bachman said in a note to clients that the bank believed Apple was now in a very strong position to grow market share, citing its better media capabilities and virus protection as a real pull for consumers who have been won over by the iPod,” Gourley reports. “Whether Apple will ever succeed in winning back the double-digit share of the personal computer market it once had remains to be seen – as does whether it can make sufficient returns in a mass market where other manufacturers have struggled. But the company’s progress in recent years still represents a remarkable revival story under Steve Jobs,” Gourley reports.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Does market share really matter? Isn’t “installed base,” currently around 25 million Mac users worldwide, of more importance to Mac software developers, peripheral makers and writers of device drivers, online banking web developers, and the like? As long as the Mac user base continues to grow, developers and others others should never forget that there are 25+ million Mac users waiting for Mac versions of their products – and Mac users’ ranks are growing daily.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Report: Apple gained significant market share of computer industry during past quarter – January 12, 2005
Apple finally stops overreaching for ‘switchers’ and goes for ‘adders’ instead – January 12, 2005
Switching from Windows to Mac? Don’t forget to ask to ‘cross-grade’ your software – December 21, 2004
Is Apple’s market share really that important? – October 18, 2004
Heres hopin’…..
Yes, marketshare matters. Personally, I’d like to see it grow to the point where software developers ALWAYS see it in their bottom line interest to produce a Mac version, and release it at the same time as Windows versions. Corel, for example dumped support for Macintosh in the latest versions of their products because they didn’t see it in their financial interest to continue developing for such a small minority of users. Likewise, game makers often skip Mac versions, or release them far later than the Windows releases. I’d like marketshare to grow to the point where making a Mac version is a given. But, not much farther — being too big attracts problems of its own!
Doesn’t the market share reflect the user base size?
Ed– Regarding Corel dumping Mac support–that’s fine–when was the last time Corel has been relevant?
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Yeah, unfortunately I cannot recommend a Mac to hardcore gamers. The number of Mac games out there would just not serve their purposes adequately. Hopefully that will change.
25 million is a substantial base and can be highly profitable. The trouble is that Mac users understand quality, so the crap developers steer clear of the platform. Only the really talented developers can make money on the Mac platform because the users won’t buy schlock.
Sorry for the blatant truth. As long as the Mac adds users, it’ll be fine for many years to come. Even if they stopped selling Macs today, there are 25 million in use.
The market share can go down while the user base grows. Simple math. Market share is relatively meaningless, but the media loves quoting it – even if it’s never been fully measured anywhere close to correctly. If Dell sells 100 Win PC-based cash registers and Apple sells 10 Macs today, the 10 Macs mean much more to us developers because those 100 Dells will never have any other software purchased for them. The 10 Macs will.
DanK,
Not necessarily so. Market share refers to sales, and since it’s commonly accepted that people keep Macs longer that they do PC’s, it’s not indicative of how many people actually own Macs. With the total sales of computers growing year over year, Apple could sell more Macs than ever (which they did last year), but still experience shrinking market share. Of course, market share has nothing to do with Apple’s profitability, which doomsaying analysts have completely ignored until the stellar quarter caused the scales to fall from their eyes.
thanks for the clear up, Viridian.
MDN: I dont think there are 25 million OSX users. The 25 million figure includes OS9, OS8, etc. etc.
Developer, maybe the Mac market for “shlock” software will go up for a while as PC users migrate to the Mac who have not acquired a taste for quality yet due to lack of experience.
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I would like to see Apple quadruple their market share of sales of new computers to 12%. And as Viridian pointed out, that will mean an even greater percentage of User Base in the long run.
I look forward to Apple’s Macintosh installed base being 30 Million, then 35 Million and some day down the road 50 Million. If the majority of the sales INCREASE is because of switchers, then this should be no problem.
Brought to you by the word “case”: “Maybe now is the time to make a case for your office to start switching to Macs.”
Benn,
that’s exactly the point: there are still 15 million computers running under OS9 and earlier. My oldest Mac is an SE 1/40 (1989), then there are Powerbooks including still used 165, 1400c/G3, and Wallstreet/G4 machines. The 165 is from 1993 and going strong!
The userbase is overall purchased machines minus overall dumped machines. It’s in the nature of the low market share of Macs and the high percentage of professional users that the percentage of software licenses purchased for Macs far exceeds the often cited 3% share of computers sold. Ask the people at Adobe how many Mac licences are sold vs. Windows versions.
Also, lokk here: http://boingboing.net/stats/
Macs have a 14% share of hits there, Safari has a 8.6 % share. These are real world numbers of computers used as computers, and not as glorified cash registers.
An Aside – even though Bill Palmer gives kudos to MDN for reporting on the market share gain last quarter in one post, his most recent post in which he cherry picked only comments from readers that reinforce his obstinate gloom and doom predictions for the Mac mini was a very disappointing display of one sided journalism. The guy is starting to bum me out.
I know you will probably read this so for all of us who would like to give the Mac mini a fair chance to succeed, please give it a rest, Bill, and hold off with your attempts to sway people to not to buy the Mac mini.
You have stated your position, now give it a chance to succeed or fail on its own and at least don’t try and do it’s sales harm just so you can be right. If it bombs without your help you will be entitled to crow to your hearts content.
http://billpalmer.net/
Bill Palmer probably switched…. to the Dark Side !!
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The Mac Mini WILL succeed… on its own merits…. Why ??
Because, even though its not made with today’s technology ..
(ie: G5s, etc) its not made with crap-components ! ..
It has a very respectable G4, and a slew of great iApps … Nothing close to what Michael Dull can produce…
And the $499 sticker wont “shock” those sitting on the fence….
There are lots of other great reasons, already mentioned in these threads, by many astute Mad Heads…. and when Apple finds they are having trouble keeping up with the huge demand for this little beast…. Bill Palmer will need a crow-bar to remove the size 12 from his mouth !
Laughing my ass off. All of a sudden, Mac will rule the world. What a bunch of dumb morons.
1) Mac will grow because of Windows viruses: Horseshit. Prove it. You pumpers have beens saying that for 3 years. Apple’s percentage of the marekt has gone down! What makes you think it is any different today than 1 year ago, 2 years ago, 3 years ago.
2) Mac will grow because PC users are buying iPod and will switch over: Horseshit. Prove it! They have been using it for a year, and zip. Hey, morons, here is what they do … a) they buy an iPod, its cool. b) they load iTunes on their PC, like the interface already. c) they connect to ITMS, love it for all the cool music, interface, ease of purchase. d) download the music, put it on their iPod, play it from their PC whatever. e) Buy an Airport Express, hook up their stereo, are blown away. Now why the hell would they switch to Mac? They love their PC even more now, no compatibility issues, life goes on.
3) You idiots think they will plug in old, dated, shity speakers, keyboard, monitor, mouse into a new Mac mini? They will compare full, new systems and choose. Mac mini is a lie … they will add it up, and say, hey, its 300 – 400 bucks more when the smoke clears … Ill go with the Dell Dude.
Hey, keep pumping losers. I am a Mac fan to the core, I’m real and I don’t buy into this horseshit.
Where is the Mac WiFi remote to make it happen in the living room? A box that is Mac cool to beat TiVo? Etc.
iPod shuffle is good. Mac mini wont change anything. Waste of time.
OK, morons, start flaming. Idiots.
Mac market share is critical – the larger the market share the more software developers wil continue to do mac software.
I want Apple to have at least 10% global market share!
Pumpers, not wifi but why does it have to be wifi?
http://www.keyspan.com/products/usb/urm17a/
It will not take much to turn the Mac mini into the ultimate home media center. Give Apple time to develop the product. The first Generation is not even on the market yet.
If the iPod halo effect was already being felt without the Mac mini as evidenced by the Q1 numbers, the Mac mini can only help that trend.
flame flameflame, flame flame flameflame flame. Flameflame flame. Flame flame! Flameflameflame Flame Flame!
Ok, I’m done Flame-ing
Magic Word is Suddenly, as in, Suddenly the smoke clears, and still there lies an awesome and very tiny personal computer.
“sn’t “installed base,” currently around 25 million Mac users worldwide, of more importance to Mac software developers, peripheral makers and writers of device drivers, online banking web developers, and the like”
Isn’t it kinda funny how that 25 million figure never changes? Never goes up, never goes down–it is just so convenient to be able to use over the years the same figure pulled out of someone’s ass.
And since the majority of those assumed 25 million machines don’t run OS X, don’t have USB ports, don’t have firewire ports, don’t run Safari, etc. etc. no they don’t matter to the above listed individuals.
MDN is a bit more impressive when not making bullshit arguments using bullshit statistics.
And for those that like to point out the number of PC’s used as cash registers–how many of those 25 million include ancient Macs in classrooms and cash-strapped writing labs, old Quadra 950’s in print shops, etc. etc.?
The funny thing is.. the lazy marketshare numbers (units per quarter, as a % of the total market) can work in Apple’s favor this time.
An installed base takes YEARS to build up.. but a year over year growth of 89% or something is pretty amazing.
It’ll take about three quarters to see some nice growth ..but by this time next year, Apple should be sitting at about 8-10% marketshare in the US and 5% of the globe
Apple needs to sell more Macs to a wider range of people.
Definitely!
Because it needs market share?
Definitely not!
“Huh??”, I hear people say , but the contradiction is entirely rational�
Quite simply, the sale of more computers to a wider customer base helps Apple’s computer division maintain relevance in a company which is becoming more known for its collection of iconic music players and market-leading online music store than as the manufacturer of the only mainstream computing solution that you can risk putting on the Internet – uprotected – for any length of time.
The first time Apple specifically broke iPod sales revenue out of its quarterly results (Q4, Fiscal 2003 i.e. July-Sept 2003), the Machine That Saved A Company That Should Never Have Needed Saving� accounted for around 7% of revenue. However, for the quarter ending December 2004 (Q1 Fiscal 2005), the “music division” (iPod + iTMS + warranties, etc.) accounted for over 39% of revenue.
Arguably, without computing products that are both relevant and attractively priced, Apple’s music division will become the dominant force in that company’s financial performance. Indeed, that situation may arise even with such products.
However, if Apple’s shareholders see the music division as being the raison d’etre for the existence of the company, what would happen to the computer division during the next fiscal speedbump – whether created by the economy at large or the computer industry � to hit Apple. Does the board come under pressure to spin-off the music division? Or does the pressure come to jettison the computer division?
Either of these scenaria would – IMHO – devastating for Apple in the long-term. Being a consumer products SOLELY places far too much pressure on Apple to keep finding the Next Big Thing after iPod. And spinning out the music division would probably generate more money for the shareholders than for Apple, so the company would derive no strategic benefit from such a move.
So more sales are important, and more market share might result from it – but neither are important for the superficial reasons that people normally quote.
Pumpers:
If your range of reading material was as large as your ego, you’d probably find people would respect your opinions a little more.
In order to start the process off, let me point you to here.
Oh look. a Wi-Fi based remote control for the Airport Express!
Pumpers sounds a lot like Bill Palmer.
Pumpers sounds like an embarrassingly immature 9 year-old having a tantrum. You’re right – he sounds like Bill Palmer.
One measure of the significance of installed base is that Microsoft keeps pumping out Mac versions of Office while claiming it is a lucrative business. Anyway, I couldn’t give a bag of horseshit about the installed base or market share. Apple is a very successful, profitable and innovative company that makes products loved by its users. How many Wintel companies are there that you can say that about them?
FYI: the subject of OS8/9;
I am writing this on a borrowed clamshell I-book that still has 8.6 on it till I get my white I-book back tomorrow from a logic board replacement, paid for by Apple after 2 years out of warranty.
I want my OSX back, would never go back . 9 maybe, but those of you running systems before that must be crazy.