Entering Black Friday Loup Funds’ Gene Munster observed lead times at Apple for ten products in six countries that suggested the gap between demand and supply is slightly wider than what he would have anticipated given company commentary on the September earnings call. Munster revisited the lead times on Cyber Monday and found that while there were slight changes, the supply environment remains tight.
What’s most important is demand for both Apple’s newest and previous generation products is strong, and to the extent the December quarter is negatively impacted from greater-than-expected supply chain bottlenecks, the March quarter will have a corresponding positive impact.
As expected, Apple can’t keep up with demand. Most of the lost demand in December will be captured in March.
If that 4-day lead time gap continues for the balance of the quarter, it would increase the supply chain effect in December to about $10B, compared to guidance of $8B. The $2B delta is just under 2% of the Street’s $117B holiday quarter revenue estimate.
We caution, [this is just] two days of data points that will evolve throughout the quarter.
MacDailyNews Take: This will all come out in the wash eventually.
As expected, and as Apple stated during October’s conference call (below), iPad remains in the tightest supply (see full article).
We expect revenue for each product category to grow on a year-over-year basis, except for iPad, which we expect to decline year over year due to supply constraints. – Apple CFO Luca Maestri, October 28, 2021
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Ordered my MacBook Pro on October 25th. Still have 2 weeks to go before it enters the shipment date range.
Cool, I hope you get it then. I’m probably going with the MacBook Air or whatever they call it. MacBook? Who knows. I’m ordering one on its release. Have a great day.