Apple, especially the company’s MacBook sales, will be one of the main beneficiaries of another year of growth in the personal computer market, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty believes, as users continue to move to remote work and choose notebooks over desktops.
Lead analyst Katy Huberty says that 2020 is shaping up to be the strongest year of PC unit shipment growth since 2014… The analyst notes that demand for PCs are likely to be structurally higher post-COVID because of the shift to remote work and notebooks. Portable computing products historically have a shorter replacement cycle than desktops… Notebook builds are also accelerating, suggesting upside to Morgan Stanley’s Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 shipment forecasts.
Huberty expects consumer demand to remain strong into 2021 because of remote learning. Commercial demand is also likely to “take the growth baton” as businesses reopen and offices refresh their PC hardware… The ongoing shift toward notebooks, which have a shorter replacement cycle as it is, “is likely to be the largest driver of structurally higher PC growth over the next several years.”
Consumers and businesses typically replace their notebooks every three years, compared to five years for desktop computers. The current global notebook install base is about 55% of the total PC market. If it reaches 75%, Huberty forecasts, it would imply annual PC unit shipments of 300 million units. That’s 5% above the 2020 peak.
MacDailyNews Take: And portable Macs, powered by Apple Silicon, will run rings around PC dreck (Windows, Chromebooks) enabling Apple’s indomitable Mac to take market share in the personal computer market. MacBook sales will bloom. Which begets even more developers flocking to support Apple’s macOS/iOS/iPadOS. And the virtuous cycle accelerates!
Two days short of its sweet 16th, this quote continues to age like a fine wine:
“As we have always said, even as many short-sightedly waved (and continue to wave) the white flag, the war is not over. And, yes, we shall prevail… No company is invincible. Not even Microsoft.” — MacDailyNews, January 10, 2005
Cherished intern: TTK! Good health, everyone!