“The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts,” Dr. Scott W. Atlas writes for The Hill. “Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.”
Dr. Scott W. Atlas for The Hill:
Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.
• Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.
• Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
• Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
• Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.
• Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
The appropriate policy, based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand, is to institute a more focused strategy… Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions. This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation. Let’s stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter.
MacDailyNews Take: Certainly, given the lack of data, the known results of the Spanish Flu, and the dire early models, the COVID-19 panic was to be expected. As we learn more, some of that panicky feeling has blessedly subsided.
If the COVID-19 pandemic doesn’t shine a klieg light on the dysfunction of American media, nothing does. You’ve got headlines blaring “Lockdown Until a Vaccine is Found” right next to “We’ve Destroyed Our Economy Based on Bad Models” all the while, in the real world, Sweden – which did not impose a lockdown – is said to be with weeks of reaching “herd immunity,” yet we do not have good data from Sweden or anywhere else on the extent of COVID infection and recovery (and hopefully long-lasting) immunity to the virus.
“Sweden’s government has advocated working from home if at all possible and to avoid nonessential travel and social contact with the elderly. Meanwhile, restaurants, bars, cafes and nightclubs have been offering seated table service only, and gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned. Yet schools for under 16-year-olds have remained open and life has generally carried on as before, just at a quieter pace,” CNBC reports.
Even experts in Sweden warn that it’s too early to draw conclusions, but given the huge economic damage caused by strict lockdowns, the Swedish approach has drawn considerable interest around the world.
“Sweden’s COVID-19 strategy may ultimately result in a smaller — albeit historically deep — economic contraction than the rest of Europe is now facing, according to HSBC Global Research economist James Pomeroy,” Bloomberg reports. “Pomeroy pointed to some Swedish characteristics that may be helping the country deal with the current crisis. More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.”
So, we don’t yet have enough data and the data we do have contain too many variables (the makeup of typical households in Sweden are quite different than in Italy, for example), to know what the right course of action is, but one thing is for sure, a functioning economy is necessary and if it is destroyed, it’ll be a helluva lot worse that anything COVID-19 seems capable of doing. Yes, the cure can be worse than the disease. We’ll have to take baby steps to restart the economy, ready to adjust on-the-fly wherever hotspots appear, and we’ll have to take necessary precautions to avoid transmission (masks, hand-washing, social distancing, etc.) until a vaccine is found.
See also:
• Apple CEO Cook joins President Trump’s committee on reopening American economy – April 15, 2020
• Apple CEO Tim Cook joins California’s business recovery task force – April 17, 2020
Obviously, the sooner we can find out the COVID-19 infection rates in populations (massive, widespread antibody testing – which is easier said than done) and if immunity is attained by those who’ve recovered and, if yes, how long immunity lasts are three very important pieces of knowledge as we try to get to an effective vaccine without irrevocably damaging the economy. A severe economic disruption will very likely provoke the immeasurable costs of widespread unemployment, social isolation, and increased mental health issues, suicide rates, bankruptcies, civil unrest, crime, and war.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers too numerous to mention for the heads up.]
“Do you feel lucky, punk? Well, do ya?”
It’s obviously a lot more nuanced than that. The data points to how we can proceed to open the economy while taking safety measures to protect the vulnerable until herd immunity and a vaccine are achieved.
donald trump is insane as hell.
Think of this virus this way, the US is being bombed, consistently day in day out, but trump and the republicans are only interested in making you go to work. They are not interested in you being safe nor saving your life. And when you die, donald will call you weak and a loser, but let’s be fair to donald you will be dead so what does the insult matter?
This trump guy is an idiot. If he is sick, and he is, those supporters of the man are just blind idiots too. Enough you simps. If this virus would not effect those who don’t want to assume the risk of dying, I would say let you idiots out to go bomb catching. But you simple minded jackass put others at risk because of your selfishness. You have the right to go out, but you insist that others go with you. No way! Others have the right not to be made sick by you.
Are these business assuming the liability of those that are made sick from going back to work, hell, we know good and damn well the government under the republicans are not. If you get sick from these open businesses sue the owner, and if you can everyone that went into that business. Money is the only thing too many of us care about, so, effect their pocketbook.
sunlight and bleach … injection, what the hell is wrong with you people following that jackass’s advice.
All you have to lose is your life, and guess that ain’t worth much.
Some people and (or) their family members might get sick if they don’t go to work for six months to a year… or longer. Not everyone can work from home, you know. Any ideas about how to fix that? Thanks!
I guess the folks on this forum are out of ideas for people who are now out of work. That’s nice. Thanks for your useless posts.
“Our Santa Clara seroprevalence study is now out. It shows 50-85 times underestimated number of infections, therefore 50-85 times overestimated infection rate fatality. True infection rate fatality is in the ballpark of seasonal influenza.” — Dr. John Ioannidis
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
Am I the only one to notice that First 2014 is posting Ioannidis videos over and over, but never a link to anyone else? I’m guessing that is because nobody else in the field shares his certainty on this subject. The Good Doctor has built his career on being a contrarian. A sizable proportion of his published output are articles with a variation of the title, “Why most published research findings are wrong.”
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JiiMY_wAAAAJ&hl=en
We have known since the beginning that most people exposed to the coronavirus do not develop full-blown Covid-19, and most of those who do have relatively mild symptoms. That is not a revolutionary new scientific discovery. In one of the earliest “captive populations,” the people trapped for weeks on the Diamond Princess, 3000 people were tested, 700 of whom had positive results. 18% of those had no symptoms. That is simply not consistent with a claim that there are 60 asymptomatic cases for every patient who gets sick.
By the way, the Diamond Princess results would probably meet even with Dr. Ioannidis’ approval, since he was a co-author of that study.
You don’t quarantine the healthy.
The FULL 1 hr 8 mins video can be found here:
Can you really compare the virus to a bomb? A bomb drops on your neighborhood of 100 residents in roughy 25 houses, maybe 25 to 50 people are killed. Covid-19 sweeps through the same neighborhood and maybe 1 or 2 people die and, no offense, the are both probably 70+ years old, obese and diabetic. Should we sacrifice the livelihoods of 25 households (roughly 100 people) to save two people? I don’t have the answer. Do you?
I just don’t see how we can remain in our houses without jobs until a vaccine (might be) is available in ANOTHER YEAR. Personally, my family and I won’t make it until the November election. We will be homeless by then. Jobless and homeless. Sorry about those two 70 year olds, but I need to get back to work soon.
Right now, I only hear two messages.
Let’s make a plan to reopen the states gradually when ready.
Let’s make a plan to remain closed until we can guarantee everyone’s safety.
I’ve been out of work for nearly six weeks. I can’t do this another six months.
Cannot
Hey 2014, do you suck trump’s cock all day, or just in shifts?
Trump does seem to be a psychopath. It as if he wants to see how many people he can cause to die by listening to him. It reminds me of Jim Jones.
from wikipeda:
American preacher and faith healer turned cult leader who conspired with his inner circle to direct a mass murder-suicide of his followers in his jungle commune at Jonestown, Guyana.
With a difference, trump doesn’t look like he is going to commit suicide.
Really, why is advocating such crazy remedies. Why are there so few leaders in his party saying something about him giving advice and telling the public not following it.
Listen, there is something wrong with the man.
Uh huh, Trump and Jimmy Jones are comparable. That makes sense. Thanks Wikipedia.
Trump has been shooting his mouth off for the last 30 or 40 years – that is why he got elected! People are sick of oily smooth politician talk.
If people are taking what Trump says at face value, then what Trump says is the least of our problems. Turn the tube off and turn your own brain on. Grow up, people!
It’s a cult. Call them branch Covidians or just Covidiots.
Be data driven, guy. Right now, you sound like a cry baby liberal with no common sense.
The comment is referring to all of the unknowns right now. Because there has been insufficient testing, we don’t really know how bad the problem is here in the US. Official numbers show that about 844,000 confirmed cases exist, with about 47,000 deaths (both may be under-reported). That is a mortality rate of roughly 5.5%. So until we get a better handle on the actual spread of this virus, we risk making it far worse than it already is. 5% is a pretty big number, for my comfort level.
People who can do basic math already know that the mortality rate is .1% – .3% for COVID-19, not your ridiculously wrong number.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/
We Americans cannot do basik math. (well, most of us kan’t) Remember, most of us are a produkt of the US educashion system.
@ Michael:
ALL numbers and percentages are wrong at present. No-one knows the true number of infections of COVID-19, but you can exercise free will by either being careful or going out and becoming a statistic.
Oh my gOD, exercise free will? Are you out of your mind? I am, so I need CNN and MSNBC to tell me what to think and do.
Nor do we know the number of deaths. The basic mortality rate is a fraction for which we only have estimates of either the numerator or denominator. Based on testing data from the few areas where there have been reasonable sampling of both active virus and antibodies, the best guess seems to be 0.5 to 1.0% (which was also the best guess when I quoted that number here in February).
If 50% of Americans catch the virus, that could still be a million deaths.
Most of the comments here are sheer fantasy. The main article is well out of the mainstream of scientific opinion. We need to get out of lockdown, certainly, but mass fatalities have their own economic effects.
The author of the main article: Dr. Scott W. Atlas, MD, the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.
I bet he’s a tad more qualified to comment this subject than some random CNN-educated TDS “Orange Man Bad” knee- and whatever else-jerker.
When he was practicing medicine, Dr. Atlas was a leading expert on the use of MRIs for diagnosing neurological disorders. He is not, in fact, more qualified to discuss epidemiology than the majority of epidemiologists who disagree with his advice.
His job since 2012 involves writing on health issues for the Hoover Institution, a conservative think tank with a mission statement that commits it to support private enterprise and personal freedom. He has written two books against “Obamacare.” So, he is not exactly a politically-neutral expert when he calls for government to reduce its role in health care.
@julia Really. That’s the best you got, whining about someone recognizing trump is an incompetent, criminal boob?
In reality, it doesn’t matter if the % is 0.1 or 0.3 or some other %. The nature of novel viruses is that humans don’t have immunity and therefore, left to it’s own devices, the virus will grow exponentially.
Say the infections double every three days. For a 100 million population, the final 9 days before peak will see ~87.5 million infections. Even at 0.1% CFR would indicate ~87,500 deaths in a very short period, not to mention the even greater % that would require hospitalisation.
Is that is acceptable to society?
@Bad Robot “The nature of novel viruses is that humans don’t have immunity and therefore, left to it’s own devices, the virus will grow exponentially.”
That is flat out incorrect and you built a strawman argument on that. That is not how biology and immunology works and not what science shows. If that were true, infants would all die at the first infection.
Without getting into to much nitty gritty, immunity is acquired, partially from the mother’s milk but then from ongoing exposure to germs of all kinds. Most are not overly harmful and help build our immune system so assist to protect us from novel or “opportunistic” germs.
Of course, those who do not have strong immune systems or are immune-compromised from other ailments are most likely to be negatively impacted.
Based on the number cited, 5% isn’t wrong.
Your Spiked online is citing a Stanford opinion and claiming this 0.1 %. Ironically their Stanford link does not have any mention of this number (# Fake News). Next, 50k of a million is 5%. if infections are underreported, the same may apply to deaths as well. Your inability to trust experts is leading to morons taking over the country. You will lead to the slow and progressive decay of all American institutions.
It is possible that the mortality rate from the novel Coronavirus is as low as you are so confidently asserting based on that article (which would put it close to the general range of seasonal flu), but the actually number of infected people would have to be much higher than the number that is currently being reported. While I suspect that the actual mortality rate is lower than some of the early estimates of 3 to 4%, I am not yet convinced that it is far below 1%, either.
Let’s do some basic math using a fatality rate of 0.2%. or 0.002, the midrange of your assertion. That translates to 2,000 fatalities per 1M infections. That means that over 25M people would have to be infected to generate 50,500 fatalities, which is the most recent number that I have seen.
However, the number of fatalities resulting from the novel Coronavirus are clearly underreported, some being recorded as due to cardiovascular issues or other factors. If the number of Coronavirus fatalities is actually 20% higher, for instance, then the number of infections would also have to be 20% higher, or over 30M. That is possible, since the U.S. has performed so poorly in terms of testing that the uncertainties are relatively high. For that reason, there is uncertainty in every estimate of the fatality rate associated with the novel Coronavirus, including yours. That is not to say that all of the estimates are equal – some have more credibility than others. But your assertion that “basic math” makes the low-end estimate the only correct conclusion is arrogantly ridiculous.
Ask yourself – do you believe that low-end estimate mostly because you want it to be true? If so, then you should think harder about the situation and consider some other sources of data to become more informed. Even then, you will not have enough data to make such confident assertions.
We have to find a way for the world and our country to function reasonably well in the face of this virus. But that does not mean buying into optimistic numbers because they support what you desire to be the truth.
Right. The basic reproduction rate (R0) is not independent of the case fatality rate [CFR). If the virus is reproducing faster while deaths remain constant, the CFR will fall. It mathematically has to. However, that does not change the number of fatalities. Your dependents do not care if you are one of 100 patients with a CFR of 1% or one of 1000 patients with a CFR of 0.1%.
We have well over 50.000 dead Americans over the last two months. If the CFR were 1%, there would be roughly 5 million infected individuals. If it were 0.1%, there would be 50 million. The lower CFR means that your chance of encountering the virus is 10X more likely. That is an argument FOR protecting yourself with social distancing, not an argument against it.
@KingMel and @TxUser though you math is not wrong, you guys are applying the math incorrectly. I suggest you watch the last posts I made today, especially about a link on facebook from front line doctors that explain this VERY clearly. If you have trouble finding it, I can re-post.
BTW, the current statistics that are coming in are NOT based only on ONE situation or region, etc. Yet there is complete concurrence of the results! If you truly understand and believe in the science of immunology, virology, biology, and epidemiology that the current real data is actually showing, that should be ALL telling!
@KingMel you state “However, the number of fatalities resulting from the novel Coronavirus are clearly underreported, some being recorded as due to cardiovascular issues or other factors.”
This is tacitly and factually incorrect. See my other post about the facebook video from front line doctors that confirm otherwise AND my other post about the instructions direct from the CDC.
Your stats are so far off you must be on drugs in California. The mortality number is around 48,000 but HALF of those are in New York where the numbers are now including all flu, pneumonia, diabetes, congestive heart failure and gunshots. The real numbers are now unknown because the authorities according to Dr. Birx are counting everything as COVID if the person has ever heard of COVID. The actual death rate is working out to be a fraction of 1% of those who get the virus, the actual number of which is hard to guess because most who have never know because the symptoms are so slight. Just like the flu.
So, to fight this variant of the flu, we are now intentionally putting America into a Depression far greater than the original depression. So far, $6.7 trillion dollars that we don’t have has been spent to fix the damage caused in just the first 7 weeks of this idiot shutdown. This is national suicide to fight the flu. Actually it is an organized communist takeover of America with total elimination of the Constitution and Bill of Rights and the full conversion instantly to a dictatorship of bureaucrats and “experts” who have been wrong on every single prediction they have made.
Lets get one thing straight here, the statistic we should be looking at is the % requiring hospitalisation, not CFR.
Currently that % is quite high.
If we let the virus go wild, the last 9 days of the virus would see ~87.5% infections. This would mean some days later a very high number of people would require hospitalisation.
Is this acceptable to our society?
NO ONE is saying to “let it run wild”!!! Just stop with the hyperbole. It’s already taken this country to the brink. If my idiot governor Newsom would get off his ass maybe we could get back to work.
How does ending social distancing before we have the means to identify individuals who are contagious differ from “let it run wild?”
Kent – “organized communist takeover” – “full conversion instantly to a dictatorship of bureaucrats”…
You are peddling alt-right, fear-mongering propaganda to justify your agenda of racial and religious hatred that has been so evident in your other posts.
The real danger to our democracy is Trump’s assault on the free press in favor of the far-right propaganda machine and the delusions of roughly one-third of the U.S. voting populace who will believe any crazy thing that Trump, Hannity, etc, spew. What is amazing is how Trump can say something one day and completely contradict himself Or flat out deny it the next day, and his supporters go along with it. Absolutely frigging nuts. It shames our country to be led by such an egomaniacal liar with delusions of intelligence.
Those numbers came from the web site created by John Hopkins University at:
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
Granted, the numbers may be underreported, but these numbers represent officially confirmed cases and deaths. So the math is pretty simple, the rest is speculation.
Those deaths include all flu and pneumonia deaths that would have occurred anyway. The numbers are so F’d up they’re useless.
If anything, the death figures are low because they only count people with a positive coronavirus test or closely associated with a confirmed patient. What is your evidence that the reported 54,000 deaths in two months were from seasonal flu outside flu season?
Not if I live in America and have a job – the government has put a target on anyone with a job and is determined to destroy your job, your life savings, your hope and take your house. 26 million people have lost their jobs in one month and that doesn’t include the business owners who don’t get to file for unemployment when the goverment seizes their business and locks their doors. I don’t feel lucky at all with the Nazis running our country right now.
Impeach trump NOW!
You are a fool. Dems have been trying to get Trump since before Inauguration Day. Either Trump is too good (or not bad enough) or the Dems are too stupid to get him. X, you are a fool!
find some new talking points.
#TrumpIsALaughingStock
ok missy.
The longer the shutdown lasts, the more damage we can pin on Trump. If we reopen, even if just a little, we risk economic recovery. Americans might be able to get back to work and that would be DEVASTATING because it might put Trump in a good light. We cannot let that happen! We cannot reopen until after the November election. Good gOD, people, can’t you see that! Biden 2020!
…Nothing, absolutely nothing can put Trump ‘in a good light’, as far as I’m concerned.
Exactly, that is the whole point! You’ve got it! Drag the lockdown out until after the election. Cause maximum damage. Blame it on Trump.
If the Democrats really did want to make Trump look bad, they would have followed his advice and opened up for Easter. Then they could have blamed the resulting disaster on him.
However, they have a conscience and weren’t willing to let people die so they could get a political advantage and make more money.
Churches closed for Easter. Will mosques be closed for Ramadan? I’m sure there won’t be a double standard.
Ramadan begins today. Mosques ARE closed. And synagogues are closed, too. What are you talking about?
He’s repeating an argument that was made at a White House press conference by the same guy who imagined crowds of Muslims celebrating in the streets on 9/11 and suggested that it was constitutional to bar Muslims from the US solely on the basis of their religion.
Excellent news! Thank gOD every mosque in the United States is closed and no Muslims are exercising their Constitutional rights to congregate or exercising their religious freedom. Thank gOD police officers aren’t photographing license plates at mosques. Thank gOD police officers aren’t spreading nails in parking lots.
At least I haven’t heard about any of that happening on MSNBC or CNN. Crickets about Ramadan on those networks. Not even one, tiny, yellow Eater Peep from them about Ramadan. I thought Easter was the end of the world from what I saw on the Democrats’ mouthpieces.
Trump is a criminal, a sociopath, and a traitor. He is also incompetent in every sense of the word. Finally he is a bully and like all bullies he is a coward.
Now do Obama and Hillary. The media was awfully quiet during their rampage…
What “rampage”? Do tell…
The decent that led to Trump.
what rampage.
If even one of your four accusations were true, Trump would have been removed from office by now. The Dems have tried EVERYTHING, but no luck so far. So sad, I guess he ain’t that bad. Maybe if the Dems can use the virus to destroy more American lives and pin it on Trump, then that will be enough for Biden to win (gOD forbid!).
Lying to Congress is a Federal Crime. That’s ~35000 lies out of Donald Trump.
He has degraded the USA, ignored the Constitution, and admired the he considers himself to be a Dictator.
He may get it.
The Democrats have been digging for over three years trying to prove your “he lied to Congress Federal Crime” claim. Still not enough to stick. FYI, 35,000 lies is on the low end in DC. Degraded the USA? How? Ignored the Constitution? When? Considers himself a dictator? He did?
Apparently, even if ALL of these claims are true, it doesn’t meet the standards needed to remove a president. Hmmm… unless these claims aren’t true. Hmm…
TrumpCriminal, you are a fuccking idiot and I please take that in the worst way possible.
payshunz, as far as Americans are concerned, you and the rest of the libturds are fuccking idiots.
I am an American, and I completely disagree with you, dd. You DO NOT speak for all Americans and it is incredibly arrogant of you to act as if you do. The Republican Party has been hijacked by inmates of Arkham Asylum.
YEAH! ORANGE MAN BAD!!!
Biden 2020! Senility and Stupidity for all!!!!!!
How fucking stupid do you need to be to support a dementia patient for president????????
Dementia patient? Oh… yes… that is part of the plan. He will gradually step down during his second or third year in office paving the way for the VP. Michelle? Stacey? Hillary von Pantsuit? It is all part of the Dem’s plan.
Can’t wait to see the debates between Trump and Biden. It doesn’t matter which left wing liberals moderate it. If they want to debate with “social distancing,” that’s fine. If they want to “video conference debate” from different locations, that’s fine. Poor Joe’s teleprompter won’t be able to keep up! And neither will Joe. Bring it on!
I have seldom seen Trump complete an actual sentence when speaking contemporaneously. It is incredibly difficult for him to read from a piece of paper or a teleprompter, even with phonetic pronunciation aids. His vocabulary consists of “very, bad, hoax, sham, disgusting, strong, powerful, beautiful, perfect, and many people” Oh, and “we’ll see what happens.”
If we are talking a real debate rather than a ridiculously constrained stage show to protect Trump’s many weaknesses, then BRING IT ON!
I would have preferred a younger Democratic nominee, and there were several great options. But all of the Democratic candidates that made it to the final ten were far better than Trump/Pence.
If I had to decide between Ted Cruz and Trump, of course, I would have to just move to another country.
That’s weird. Biden has the same problem – can’t read from a teleprompter – even after practicing all day from the comfort of his own basement. Trump, on the other hand, throws himself to the wolves DAILY for HOURS… on LIVE television. I wanna see Biden try that!!!!
Name one president who has been as accessible to the press as Trump.
I don’t know. The guy there now isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders.
(And the only president who actually DID have dementia was Reagan, and lots of folks supported him!)
Well, tens of millions of people elected Trump in 2016, dd. So apparently lots of people will vote for a dementia patient at least once.
Stick to the facts. If Trump had dementia, Pence would be president. You don’t know that?
Spare us your simple minded idiocy.
“ Spare us your simple minded idiocy.”
Haha! Aren’t you the child who posted the simple minded Twitter link about 5 times yesterday? Yes, I think it was you.
And your point? It takes a lot to break through the ignorance of the blockhead trump cultist.
#TrumpIsALaughingStock
Your point? Aren’t you the one that has hundreds of personalities?
Nope, that’s not me. I only have two or three personalities.
Watch any major news outlet. Watch all the outlets. They are ALL towing the exact same (Democrat) party line… keep the country shutdown until after the November election. You will ONLY read two kinds of news; the pros of the lockdown and the cons of reopening. Nothing in the middle. Nothing! Inflict as much damage on Americans as possible and blame it on Trump. Easy! No data or research needed. None!
Don’t believe me? Here’s a sample. CNN’s top story…
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/23/us/reopening-country-coronavirus-utilitarianism/index.html
A few years ago, they were all hewing exactly the same line about Superstorm Sandy. They all claimed that it was dangerous. None were telling the other side of the story. Actually, it wasn’t a danger to the overwhelming majority of Americans.
It is rather a good thing to repeat what epidemiologists say about epidemiology, rather than some guy with a business degree.
Wait – you’re saying Superstorm Sandy wasn’t a big deal? It caused hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars of damage. Does that count? No one said a storm was a danger to the entire country — just the areas in its path.
Of course, you can’t catch hurricanes and tornados by standing next to someone who is affected. That’s the difference here, I guess.
My point was that Sandy was a big deal and the media reported the bad news without trying to put a favorable spin on it. They have done the same with this story. It is not their job to give facts and “alternate facts” equal coverage. When a politician screws up, the unfavorable stories are his fault, not the media’s.
When the vast majority of epidemiologists are saying one thing, about an epidemic and a business major and his supporters are saying something different, the media have no obligation to give them equally favorable coverage.
This is political. I don’t think MDN should be publishing political news.
I agree with you, MacDailyNews is like Fox News for Mac.
Agreed. What I find ironic is that they’ve cultivated this crowd of rightist Apple fans, which has largely spoiled one of my otherwise favorite Mac sites with poisonous, hateful venting, and very probably narrowed the general appeal of the site, and then when they’re in trouble, they go for an NPR-style fundraiser from readers to bail them out.
Only in America I guess….
Couldn’t agree more. I really like this site. Some of the opinions expressed, not so much.
I agree with you, MacDailyNews is like CNN for Mac.
Weird! Another person posted the exact opposite, saying that MDN is like Fox for Mac. Haha!
I agree… There is nothing in this about Apple or technology. Pure click-bait and red meat for the right wing. I love Apple technology but I don’t love this political BS. What has happened to MDN? I would love it if MDM would just turn off comments entirely… They serve no purpose….
the site would die without the right wing hate group.
@FutureMedia…and I believe you entered a comment right out of the gate (1st post) in response to an another recent article that had NOTHING to do with politics.
Some cake and eat it too?
There is little evidence that the infection rate is decreasing. As more tests are being conducted, more people are being found to be infected. CA which has a good ratio of 15:1 tests vs confirmed cases is beginning to trend up again. All that means is that as the availability of testing increases, more of the infected are being found.
Open up the state now and we will be back to square one.
Do you understand what herd immunity is and how it works?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Herd immunity for a disease this infectious requires that 80% of the population catch it and recover (with measles it is about 95%). That equals 264 million Americans. At even a 0.5% mortality, that is 1.3 million deaths.
I don’t think that is either political or economic good policy.
You don’t know the rate of infection for COVID-19. Nobody does, which renders your comment moot.
Which herd can I join that has immunity from TxUser’s posts?
As a result of your inherent idiocy or insanity, you are a founding member of that herd, “Immune from TxUser.”
We know that the infection rate is much higher than seasonal flu (even if we don’t know the exact number) which means that the threshold for herd immunity is also much higher.
Thank you, doctor!
Actually, there have been several studies around the world, suggesting current infection rates of roughly 5% to 10%. Which is somewhat short of the 60% to 80% needed.
Hmmm. Apparently only Coronavirus comments from far right people are valid, “Brutal Truth”?
Do you understand that Coronavirus is just as contagious today as it was 3 months ago? And the only people who have any immunity to it are the ones who’ve had it and survived. It takes just one person shedding virus to infect the herd because herd immunity falls apart with more and more people being exposed to the virus.
Do you understand that Coronavirus might be MUCH more contagious than we knew three months ago? And the current death rate might be much lower than what was projected just three short months ago? Where are the millions of deaths? I don’t know where they are, but I know they don’t exist. So, what happened?
Exactly…LOTS of real concrete verifiable data is now available that shows that this Wuhan virus and COVID-19 condition is FAR FAR MORE contagious that previously thought AND it is FAR FAR LESS deadly than previously FEARED.
It is also showing that all this effort that started out as social distancing and quickly morphed into social isolation has made little difference on the impact of this virus (see N. Korea and Sweden vs Norway as examples).
And in NO WAY is a vaccine needed to help get beyond this (remember that 99% of people HAVE and ARE recovering and 100% of recovered individuals have done so WITHOUT a vaccine).
Yet the secondary effects on our society (financial health, mental health, domestic abuse and violence, other medical conditions not treated properly, etc), is arguably far greater and is likely to be with us for a very very long time.
If what has been said about the Spanish Flu and other similar events is true — that the second wave was 3-4 times as deadly as the first — then we are being very shortsighted by opening up too quickly. I, for one, have some health issues, and would prefer to stay home and live rather than relying on data points which seem to care more about economics than lives.
I totally understand what you are saying. May I offer a point of view that there are some in power in the US who are not relying on data points and don’t care about economics and don’t care about lives… they only care about getting Trump out in November. Data points don’t matter. You don’t matter, either. Sorry about that. It isn’t you. They don’t care about me either. Actually, they are hoping that the more you and I suffer, the more we will blame it on Trump.
Funny, that was the GOP game plan for years – obstruct and gridlock to make Obama look bad, then blame it all on him. Naturally, you would assume that your opponents would use the same horrid tactics that you supported in promotion of your agenda.
So, you agree that the Dems are obstructing the Administration during a pandemic?
Economics = Lives. Lives = Economics.
Destroy the economy and you destroy far more lives than COVID-19, which to most healthy people is nothing more than a bad flu season.
The Democrats’ plan is to destroy as many lives as possible; destroy their health, family, job, savings… it doesn’t matter. The more damage there is, the more they hope to pin on Trump. This is not about economics. It is about hating Trump.
grow up
A good example how leftist’s politics revolve around their own dysfunction. Destroy everyone else’s lives, just say you’ll keep my butt safe. More people will die from suicides, drug abuse, heart attacks, cancers and crushing poverty created by the totalitarian lockdown than the virus.
That’s right! Obviously we can’t reopen the country until we have the capacity to test everyone… twice. That might take until 2022, but at least it will be after November 3. Notice that every Democrat and “major news outlet” is singing the same song; test, test, test, test, test.
Along with the vast majority of reputable medical professionals… especially those on the front lines.
Too bad Trump never sang that song…”test, test, test, test…” the lack of data has been used as a shield to justify anything that Trump says and to attack anything that he doesn’t like.
Where should we get the data from? This pandemic has just started. Where are the tests? This isn’t an app, this is real life. No country has on earth has adequate testing abilities.
Why didn’t Trump fill the National Stockpile with 600,000,000 covid-19 tests? Don’t be absurd. Where will all those tests come from? The magic covid-19 factory? Don’t be stupid!
As the US prepares to pass 1,000,000 confirmed cases, Trump will be blamed for testing too much. You want more tests, but you don’t want to face the test results. That is mature.
This article is right wing propaganda and has nothing to do with Apple/Mac/iPhone news.
It’s neither “right” or “left” (if you actually read MDN’s Take).
Is the following statement true or not?
“A severe economic disruption will very likely provoke the immeasurable costs of widespread unemployment, social isolation, and increased mental health issues, suicide rates, bankruptcies, civil unrest, crime, and war.”
J,
Apple CEO Tim Cook is a prominent member of both President Trump’s committee on reopening American economy and California’s business recovery task force.
It has to do with a certain Apple/Mac/iPhone news website getting their advertising revenues back once things reopen again.
I agree. I much prefer it when MDN posts left wing propaganda.
It’s neither “right” or “left” (if you actually read MDN’s Take).
Is the following statement true or not?
“A severe economic disruption will very likely provoke the immeasurable costs of widespread unemployment, social isolation, and increased mental health issues, suicide rates, bankruptcies, civil unrest, crime, and war.”
Crime, civil unrest, bankruptcies, suicide rates, mental health issues, social isolation, sickness, unemployment, broken lives… bring it all on! The Dems want more damage. This virus is a gODsend for the Dems after their failed impeachment. The Dems are running out of time before November. Thank you China!! Biden 2020!
Apparently, it works better than their proposed policies.
That’s true in all disasters… which is exactly what a pandemic is.
How about leaving your political opinions off a site designed for technology news? I have plenty of places I can go for that, I don’t need it here along with the debate that’s starting in the comments. Goodbye MDN
People who are afraid to discuss ideas are not to be trusted.
Do you really think that most of the hateful bashing that goes on here is productive “discussion”?
Johnny,
What is MacDailyNews “political opinion” here and please cite quotes from MDN’s Take above that back up your claims.
You won’t, because you can’t, but I’d love to see you try.
The fact that they posted it at all says enough, citation not necessary. Sounds like MDN is in agreement with the article… which is more likely favored by a specific kind of voter.
To be fair, it IS an article written by an MD that’s a member of the conservative Hoover Institution. I’m sure there’s no accident in referencing conservative sources on a right wing site and really no issue because liberal media is all over the left wing sites.
We are not interested in fairness, facts, America or Americans. We only care about Biden winning 2020 so that his VP can take over halfway through his first term after he graciously steps down due to his failing mental capacities. Poor Joe! How did he get himself into this mess? Certainly this is borderline elder abuse.
Joe wasn’t part of this conversation before you decided to put him into it… why are you tryna be a distraction? Say something substantial or go back to your corner.
I agree. Goodbye USA
New data from random sample antibody testing in New York State shows nearly 20% of the population was infected. We are talking nearly 2 million people. That means that without shutdown, the virus would have spread to nearly everyone. A deadly infection rate triple or more would occur, and in those who get very ill. Not only death, but other longer term effects are now being noted. We would kill hundreds of thousands, and inflict many others with terrible health problems for years. We must stay in shut down until there is wide spread antibody testing, diagnostic testing of those returning to work with contact tracing and isolation, and firm workplace guidelines, including masks and frequent cleaning. It will take time, but if done correctly, we can do it relatively safely. The restaurant infection data show that the virus can be carried in A/C streams and infect people much farther away the six feet. Accordingly, no dining-in restaurant business in the foreseeable future.
#3 is the biggest concern. We need to get 90% of we healthy folks out there and mixing and working and getting it and getting over it and moving on. If not, we’ll destroy our economy and thus the world’s economy, resulting in starvation and illness deaths (all kinds of illnesses) of millions of people globally in 3rd world countries.
At risk folks (elderly, sick, respiratory issue folks, obsese folks don’t do well with this either) need to stay sheltered until a few vaccines arrive.
So riddle me this:
Isn’t it time the Government get out of the way – or – we just start collectively practicing civil-disobedience and working and living, exercising our Bill of Rights (which nowhere does the Constitution or Bill of Rights say they can be suspended for any reason BTW) and proving that American’s can weigh the risks and be responsible for our own lives.
The more we do this, the more some will get mild sickness, some no effects, some never get it, and others get flu-like and 5 days or more down.
I think my entire family had this in January. Would love to get the antibody test and wear a ribbon “Covid-Immune” whether it truly means that or not I get it. Point being, this strain, HIGHLY likely to not get it again.
Let’s live again America. We get in cars every day right? We know the risks. Everyone weight your own risk and get living again!!!
We get in cars every day, but we don’t drive drunk every day (I hope). The reason there are DUI laws is that impaired drivers kill themselves at a lower rate than they kill other innocent people. The reason for the lockdowns is that people who ignore voluntary distancing requirements are much more likely to kill other people rather than themselves.
You can weigh your own risks, but your actions can deny other individuals the ability to assess their own risks, because they depend partially on you. In a lockdown situation, your behavior is predictable, which is valuable information for others. If your behavior is unpredictable, the limited freedom they have now (to buy food and fill prescriptions, for example) will become much less safe to exercise.
The right to life applies to post-born humans, too. If ending lives for purely economic motives is absolutely wrong in one context, why not in this context?
No positives cases in my county for 2 weeks. Tweeted my gov when we’ll start easing restrictions, no answer yet.
Did you get an answer yet?
I don’t think this is a political thing. I know of no one – either Republican or Democrat – who wants to keep the country shut down for a year and a half (or thereabouts) until a vaccine is available.
Talking about Sweden is not helping. Sweden is in a much different position than the US. For starters, they were much better prepared for a pandemic than the US. Their hospitals are not being overwhelmed, there does not seem to be a shortage of PPE and they seem to have enough testing capability. It is also worth noting that Swedes seem to more trusting of their government than Americans and are doing a better job following guidelines. It helps that Sweden has a much stronger social safety net than the US – and it makes it easier for people to follow guidelines. I think it is fairly clear that the US is not in a position to do what Sweden is doing.
That being said, we need to reopen. However, it must be done in a measured way. Before we start the process of reopening, the following conditions IMHO must be met.
The number of hospitalizations and patients in the ICU must be reduced. Right now things seemed to have flattened in the worst hit parts of the country but it probably needs to go down some more.
We need to build up adequate supplies of hospital equipment such as ventilators, beds etc.
We need enough PPE for all essential workers. That includes hospital workers and pretty much everyone doing essential jobs
We need to build up testing capability until it is at an adequate level. I don’t know what the numbers are for the entire country but California needs to be capable of doing more than 60,000 tests a day. Right now, they are doing a little over a quarter of that number.
We need to set up the ability to track Covid-19 cases and isolate those affected and also test and potentially isolate those that who have had significant contact with people diagnosed with Covid-19.
At this point, we can gradually open up. We are not there yet and I don’t think we will be there for at least a month more.
You’ve got it exactly right!
Percentages are MEANINGLESS unless you can track virtually EVERYONE who is infected (and we know we can’t; there are too many asymptomatic cases) and you have a statistically insignificant number of false positives (which, thanks to New York’s “association” policy, you’re never going to have).
Stop using percentages, unless you’re going to use ALL of the numbers. And we don’t have ALL of the numbers, and we never will.
Start using common sense instead.
What is this article even doing on MacDailyNews? Stick to regurgitating Mac and iOS news or part a another blog with political opinions.
it’s been that way since 2007 when President Obama ran and was elected. The right wing garbage slowes down between elections. Campaign season so expect trump to be given plenty of blow jobs from his cult.
Using Sweden as the role model when it is by far the exception not the rule and bears virtually no similarity to a society such as the highly populated areas of the US certainly, is madness. Japan which equally didn’t lock down as much as others is now beginning to find itself being seriously hit by the virus when it could have pretty much eliminated it by a more extensive set of precautions and lockdown. Meanwhile Germany and Austria which had the quickest and strictest of lockdowns are now in closing off infection in a position to ease things. Sadly the rest of us failed to learn by their actions and have paid the price with the US with by far the biggest death rates. It really depends on the balance between saving lives and the hit on the economy you want to take now. But with the death rates commonly sitting around 2,5% and 5% when hospitals start to get overrun (as they did in Italy) and a higher percentage amongst the over 50s on occasion (who form much of the workforce)it isn’t something I would be willing to tolerate by seriously easing restrictions at this juncture. Others may disagree and be willing for such people to die. But fact is only an idiot would use Sweden with a small population over a massive area and nothing like the international links that fed into New York or London as a basis to take your next steps especially as the infection is already with us in large doses while there is no actual evidence to suggest that Sweden has herd immunity of around 80%. Indeed that is the most wishful of wishful thinking as this point not unlike the idiots in the early days who claimed this was nothing but flu.
Don’t be fooled.
Improvements in the numbers have nothing to do with different medical care. There is no therapeutic. There is no vaccine. No one knows why some folks have a cytokine storm.
We still do not know the pathogenesis. What does the virus do?
Nothing with the virus has changed. The virus is just as contagious. It is just as dangerous.
We still do not have the tools and people to do effective containment.
The only thing that has changed since the beginning of the pandemic is our mitigation efforts. And what we’ve accomplished is to stay within our hospital treatment capacity. We’ve flattened the curve like we needed to. If we stop mitigation, we go right back to where we were, accelerating toward exceeding our capacity.
Also exactly right!
Doctor Destroys Media Narrative on COVID-19
Let’s try this:
go to facebook…. add to the URL the following:
/terrencekwilliams
/videos
/219266722698502/
This is not a Left or Right debate. It’s about human lives. Take off your USA-blinders and you’ll see the rest of the world is in the same position. People have been ordered to stay at home around the globe. If you think the Dems are behind this, how did they get the 7.5+ billion inhabitants on the earth to conspire en masse to remove your sitting president from office? Jeezus
Influenza killed 34,200 Americans in 2019. Even with self-isolation orders in place, COVID-19 has taken out more than 44,575 Americans in only a few months, and the death rate is continuing to climb. Left unchecked, the death rate would be staggering.
The latest numbers I have show 1,939 Americans died from COVID-19 on April 20th alone. I’m sure you don’t want this rate to continue.
You’re not stuck at home, you’re safe at home!
Want my support stick to the Mac news and leave the politics at the door.
…For including an article–and many comments from both sides–that lists opinions as facts and letting us debate them. Apple was for decades a victim of the industry’s proclivity to do just that, so you’re uniquely positioned for this exercise.
It’s been a really long time since you linked to Steve Ballmer’s opinion that Apple wouldn’t sell many iPhones because “it isn’t a very good machine.” And Michael Dell’s suggestion to “close it down and give the money back”
Please don’t hesitate to direct any personal attacks for imperfect quotes.
To be fair, the article WAS written by someone connected to the conservative Hoover Institution. So, not necessarily form “both sides” and that’s ok. Red news on red sites like this one, Blue news on blue sites.
Polite applause.
WTF is this doing on MacDailyNews? I quit! Done with this nonsense site. Never viewing it again. There are better sites with better focus. My only thought is this is published because it is this site’s owner opinions. BAD, BAD, BAD.
You should have been here for the run up to and the 2016 election.
Welp, my parachute has worked so far! Time to cut it!
Doctor Destroys Media Narrative on COVID-19