In a note to clients on Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin has predicted that Apple will lose more than a third of its value this year. The note predicts that AAPL will fall to $192 this year.
In 2019, Info Tech returned 50%, the best of any sector, and accounted for 32% of the rise in the overall index. Only two other sectors, Financials (+32%) and Communication Services (+33%), outpaced the market,” he wrote in a note to clients.
Kostin says both of those sectors are overvalued based on their likely growth over the next five years.
Foremost among those companies is the biggest name on the market. Apple has doubled in value in a year, stretching its market cap to $1.3 trillion, and Kostin says the rally — which included a 31.5% surge in the fourth quarter — has gone way too far.
Goldman estimates that Apple’s profits will come up well short of Wall Street forecasts this year, and that the tech giant will see its earnings grow at about the same rate as the rest of the market over the next two years.
MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed™ for future reference.
In July, 2019, David Kostin was warning clients that the market had run out of steam…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-22/goldman-sees-s-p-500-upside-capped-with-stocks-near-fair-value
We all know what happened in the second half of 2019… What fools will still listen to this loser?
Excellent response.
I appreciate your contribution.
Maybe add Goldman analyst Rod Hall’s $165, 12 mo number to the iCal list as well? He proposed this Sept ’19.
Is there not a curious conflict with the Apple/Goldman Card…not of interest, but their assumption of value/gain?
Why get involved with a company that will “flounder?” Maybe agreeing to the relationship is simple…large ecosystem and populated with people with above avg disposable income?
Regardless, it’s strange per my perception.
some time back there were articles that suggests that Goldman wants aapl down because it is the service Apple uses for buybacks.
Apple (due to SEC rules or something, or simply due to the fact it needs to buy huge volumes at once) arranges for an institution to arrange buybacks at a FIXED price. The institution makes more if the stock price is low. The institution usually buys from other groups like hedge funds rather than from the open market.
FORTUNE 2015:
“What’s ironic about this is that Goldman Sachs is smack in the middle of the biggest stock buyback going — the massive share repurchase program that Apple increased in April from $90 billion to $140 billion….
“During that period, Dark Pools traded over 103.6 million shares of Apple stock. The heaviest week was the week of June 9, 2014 when 39.9 million shares traded in dark pools. Goldman Sachs was responsible for trading 2,444,350 shares of Apple that week in its Dark Pool, Sigma-X, and has been in the top tier of dark pools trading Apple stock in all subsequent weeks of our review period. ”
To be Honest:
I don’t really understand it and there is very little info on it as it seems hidden in secrecy. Just repeating what I read in various places.
The idiot highlights a 31% increase in Apple value in the 4th quarter of 2019 as a big deal, without mentioning that the prior 2018 4th quarter had Apple a 38% drop from 231 to 143. So, it went down in a huge overreaction a year ago and this past year it went up on strong positive sentiment about future growth. But the stock essentially spent all of the first 9 months of 2019 just to get back to where it was in October 2018. So, no huge gain. Just the past three months are the only gain in Apple in over a year and three months. And it is still by far the most profitable company with a very strong product diversification and a proven decades long record of innovating new ways to extend the ecosystem and to become increasingly a core/must have application for the most desirable computer and communication and entertainment and financial customers in the world.
Goldman Sucks.
A few thoughts: 1) If there is a recession, an overall change in the market (eg- Fed raises interest rates), or a war, then “Yes” Apple’s stock will go down (along with the rest of the market) . . . on the other hand, 2) Whenever a Wall Street Firm “leaks” information about where the market is heading, “educating” the common folk like you and me, it’s an attempt to motivate the general public to either buy or sell the stock. 2a) Thus, if you talk to David Kostin’s wife, she would say, “David is just doing his job!”