More than a third of iPhone users – up to 350 million – are likely to upgrade to ‘iPhone 5G’ next year

“Supply-chain reports point to Apple gearing up for double-digit growth in iPhone sales next year, with signs suggesting that a high proportion of iPhone owners will upgrade for 5G.,” Ben Lovejoy writes for 9to5Mac:

Wedbush bases its optimistic view on a mix of factors, starting with early supply-chain signals… There are roughly 900 million iPhone owners at present, and Wedbush believes that more than a third of them are likely to upgrade for 5G next year.

To this point, we believe 200 million units could be the starting point for 5G Apple smartphone demand as roughly 350 million iPhones within the 900 million installed base of Cupertino are currently in the window of an upgrade opportunity.

The analysts say that while they paint a rosier picture than the Wall Street consensus, Apple has already demonstrated an ability to exceed expectations.

MacDailyNews Take: They’ll never be able to make enough! 2020 will usher in a multi-year iPhone super cycle.


  1. There’s a danger of over-expectation due to analysts thinking people will upgrade BECAUSE of 5G. That’s wrong. Most customers who just bought iPhone 11 or 11 Pro are not going to upgrade because iPhone 12 has 5G. So the current success of iPhone 11 undercuts potential sales of iPhone 12.

    5G is just one of the improvements for iPhone 12. It’s not a visible “hands on” feature, like improvements to the screen and camera. It’s not something that can be demonstrated at an Apple Store and get a “Wow!” from Joe Customer. It’s just an improvement to the data pipe when iPhone is not connected to WiFi.

    It’s a significant technical improvement, but also kinda boring for most customers. Apple is smart and will market the overall iPhone 12 package, not focus on 5G.

    1. I upgraded to the 11 pro this year because it doesn’t look like 5g is going to be widespread for at least a year or two after the iPhone 12. There’s still a lot of equipment that needs to be installed to get the high speed 5g. In the end T-mobile’s 5g might be better for many people with it’s long reach. Sure it’s slower but there’s much better coverage. Plus how many people really need 5g on their phone? And then there’s the possible health aspect.

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