Jacob Sonenshine for TheStreet:
The world of smartphones continues to emerge from its doldrums, in what has been a positive few months for Apple specifically, according to several tech analysts.
After analysts noted the positive sales and demand trends for the new Apple iPhone 11’s a few weeks ago, two analysts published notes Monday morning increasing their forecasts on smartphone builds…
“We are increasing our 2020 5G smartphone estimates to 120 million from 50 million as the supply chain continues to indicate much higher 5G device sales, particularly in China, than we have been forecasting,” wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall… “Our Apple iPhone calendar year third quarter build forecast increased to 47 million (+18% quarter-over-quarter) on higher XR demand while the fourth quarter build plan remains at 65 million,” wrote Cowen’s Krish Sankar.
Sankar noted that the revised current quarter estimates build in estimates for the new iPhone 11 sales, and that the price reduction on the cheapest model may be acting as a meaningful tailwind to shipment volumes.
MacDailyNews Take: Good news on the smartphone front for Apple as iPhone 11/Pro/Max looks to be stronger-than-expected ahead of the 5G iPhone super cycle!
Analysts look foolish predicting iPhone sales would be lower because “everyone is waiting for 5G.” This is a case of people who can’t see things from perspective of others who are not like them (a weakness plaguing today’s world). Because THEY (industry experts) know about 5G and understands benefits of 5G (once it’s rolled out and fully implemented), it does NOT mean typical customers care or even know what “5G” means. The 🌎 would be a better place if more people spent more time outside their echo chambers 😉 Steve Jobs was superhuman in his ability to see things from the perspective of others…
I could swear analysts live in some sort of vacuum. No one I know with a smartphone is asking for 5G. I think if they knew the current drawbacks of 5G, I’m sure they wouldn’t want it. How can 5G be a desired feature when there’s almost no 5G infrastructure in place? In NYC there are plenty of WiFi hotspots, so that’s what people are using for most of the things they do such as browsing and texting. I have even been able to stream my Plex movies without problems using WiFi hotspots. Pluto TV works pretty well on WiFi. Anyway, I have no need for 5G and I think most of the rural consumers in the U.S. would be happy just to have fully implemented 4G LTE. Who really wants 5G cell towers on every block? Not me. Are people going to actually watch 4K movies on their smartphones? Most consumers don’t own flagship smartphones and don’t have a use for them.
To summarize, many analysts are either idiots or liars if they think that not having 5G is going to stop iPhone sales. High prices might slow down iPhone sales but the lack of 5G will not. I think it will take at least a couple of years for 5G infrastructure to be in place in most countries, not counting So. Korea or the United Arab Emirates.
I tend to be a contrarian to your idea. I view analysts thinking they know far more than the average Joe, when they do not. Not in today’s world if information everywhere.
Thus, I think way more consumers understand 5G won’t be out for well over a year to any usable degree in most of the country save for concentrated population centers (AKA major cities), and thus, the iPhone 11 and Pro versions are a great buy, as they aren’t sacrificing anything for a few years.
The consumer also knows, once Apple delivers on 5G in an iPhone, it means the networks are likely decently deployed to support it to some degree.
People are far smarter than analysts give them credit for…
People ARE smart about thing THEY individually care about… While consumers love iPhones, it’s a tool. The people who care enough to post comments on an Apple-centric website are not most consumers. They usually have more important things to occupy their time, thoughts, and effort, and it’s NOT (unless their job is “analyst”) about how 5G will make their lives better. Because what they have already gets the job done for most 🙂
China just began 5g buildout in June of 2019… how much 5g does China have? This project is slated for about 5 years to complete .. Verizon says “ideally half of USA to have 5g in a year”… right now 5g is very rare .. I’m not paying 1500-1600 for a Samsing 5g that I can barely use when I’ll buy another phone in a year or two anyways