KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo lowers iPhone X estimates; blames notch, among other things

“A new report from KGI defies market consensus claiming that iPhone X shipments are not as strong as many believe,” Benjamin Mayo reports for 9to5Mac. “The analyst says that it believes Apple will ship around 18 million iPhone X units in the current quarter, significantly below estimates in the 20-30 million range from other analysts. It primarily blames longer replacement cycles in China for the weaker demand for iPhone X.”

“However, KGI reaffirms its predictions of a three tier 2018 iPhone lineup with a 6.1-inch LCD model, a successor to iPhone X and a 6.5-inch OLED ‘iPhone X Plus’ launching in the fall,” Mayo reports. “In fact, KGI suggests that Apple may stop making iPhone X altogether when production of the new 2018 models ramp up.”

“KGI says that iPhone X has not landed as strongly in China as it originally hoped,” Mayo reports. “It says Chinese customers are holding on to their existing phones for a longer time, quoting lower shipment forecasts from vendors like Huawei and Oppo, as well as claiming that the notch screen design has turned away potential Chinese customers.”

Alrighty then.
Alrighty then.

 
“KGI is also bullish on the fall 2018 iPhone lineup ‘when the real super cycle will kick in.’ Repeating claims from last year, Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple will introduce new 6.5-inch OLED and 6.1-inch LCD iPhones with an iPhone X -esque design,” Mayo reports. “The 6.1-inch LCD model will apparently be priced significantly lower than the current iPhone X, coming in the $650-750 range. This may justify why iPhone X is being EOL’d – the new lower-price option will be this 6.1-inch phone.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If Ming-Chi Kuo’s calendar Q1 unit sales forecast is accurate, we’ll likely see it reflected in Apple’s Q218 guidance when they report on February 1st. Yes, the iPhone X’s notch is an “inelegant kludge.”

[iPhone X] is just such a great device, but Apple (likely very carefully and intentionally) made it just a bit too small for our taste (baking in the impetus to upgrade this year), so we’re very much looking forward to the rumored 6.5-inch “iPhone X Pro” said to be coming this fall.MacDailyNews, January 2, 2018

“iPhone X Pro” with Apple Pencil support! Starting at $1,199.

‘Twas readily discernible differentiation, and not just in screen size, but in camera hardware and features that has sold and continues to sell many Plus model iPhones. ProMotion – especially and naturally coupled with Apple Pencil support – would be a strong reason to choose iPhone X Plus, iPhone X Pro*, or whatever they name it.

*”Pro” means Apple Pencil support already, so it makes sense to use “Pro” for any iPhone with Apple Pencil support, too. – MacDailyNews, November 28, 2017

Regardless, we call it “Samsung’s Torment.” – MacDailyNews, November 13, 2017

Even without Pencil support, tens of millions will queue up online and in front of retail stores for the privilege of owning them!MacDailyNews, December 1, 2017

SEE ALSO:
New leak reveals significant iPhone design changes as Apple looks to correct notch design abomination – January 17, 2018
Apple’s next-gen 6.5-inch ‘iPhone X Plus’ could be a huge seller – January 6, 2018
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple working on 6.5-inch ‘iPhone X Plus’ for late 2018 launch – November 13, 2017
Apple’s botched ‘notch’ atop iPhone X’s display is a design abomination – September 15, 2017

19 Comments

  1. of course, he’s failing to take EGG trajectories (+-BUN) into account, along with consistently positive BACN coefficients for PLUM as well as SAMN.

    you have to wonder how he even graduated from business school!

  2. “The analyst says that it believes Apple will ship around 18 million iPhone X units in the current quarter, significantly below estimates…”

    “KGI is also bullish on the fall 2018 iPhone lineup…”

    And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why people shouldn’t listen to analysts. They talk out of both sides of their mouths. If AAPL soars after the Feb 1 earnings release, KGI will say it’s reacting positively to the news looking forward. If it tanks, KGI will say they’re gloomy prediction was right.

  3. All the FANG stocks are predicted to have stellar quarters. Of all the major tech stocks, only Apple is being said to be going down the tubes. What makes those other tech stocks invulnerable to slowed growth and only Apple keeps hitting a wall? Why is even Microsoft able to project better growth than Apple? With all that repatriated cash coming to Apple, you’d think it would make a huge difference but apparently it’s not doing anything if Apple stock actually tanks.

    They’re still talking about how horrible the notch is. A few people who’ve purchased iPhone X units say that the notch is not a deal-breaker and most consumers stop noticing it after using it for a week or so. I’m only going by Youtubers and so that’s just a tiny sample. I don’t personally know anyone who has an iPhone X, so I have no direct source.

  4. You people at MDN are WAY to focused on the notch….GET OVER IT!!!

    It all but disappears after the first couple weeks of ownership…
    I can’t believe how many are always focused on the negative!!

    The fuckin X is a glorious piece of engineering and design!

  5. Yes, the notch virtually disappears after you’ve had the X for a few days, the ease of Face ID, and the speed of the Phone and and that excellent screen more than compensate. Would it be nice if had been done another way, probably, but this is the first round, and I suspect Kuo’s expectations will be shattered soon..

  6. How does the notch “disappear” when you must either watch videos with it as a constant obtrusion or zoom out thereby shrinking the picture? If you watch videos regularly on an iPhone X, whether it be binging Netflix or cats on YouTube, then the notch has become a part of your daily life.

    That’s a big reason why I opted for the iPhone 8 Plus instead.

    1. disappears aren’t finely tuned when it comes to visual and design details. I’ll bet a jillion bucks none/0% work, have worked, or are seriously involved in the field…even as a hobby.

      Sure there are people that “don’t see it. There are the zipper-heads that think it’s a positive “differentiator” from competitors. There are those that like it because it helps them determine which end is “up,” which exemplifies the mistake as it is…a device needs to lesson screen purity so the user knows how to hold the thing? No, I’m not on the Design Team, but I’ll step out and say, this wasn’t the plan.

      Back to the design dunder-heads…they’re the same people that could care less what color they paint their house and think good art is on the wall at Macy’s.
      Conclusion: their opinions are anecdotal and not to determine design success. I’m glad you enjoy the phone, though.

    2. R2,
      You seriously watch videos on your phone??? That’s messed-up to begin with…The only time I could actually see using a phone screen to watch anything…is when you are stuck at the airport and it’s your only form of distraction…..other than that…get a life…I thought only chicks carried the Plus cause they’ve got purses…

  7. Yet another misleading smoke-up from Apple’s mouthpiece.

    It’s not the notch or China.
    Folks, it’s simple….

    As good as the iPhone is, $1,000 for essentially a phone? That was and has been the single issue from the very beginning, nothing else. People began pausing to think, and got smarter.
    That’s all it is to this,….and from the very beginning of the X, totally hyped up. A good phone, but not worth shelling out $1K. Simple.

      1. I am sure that the X is a good phone, and in fact, I almost bought it, but in the final minute, I played it safe and bought an 8 (and I am happy). I can wait and see until the next season. Being so gadget freak that I am, I am tempted to buy the X every few days, but somehow could control that urge :-). I have been buying the iPhone every year and outright from Apple Store. I can afford the X and it’s not really a money issue to me. But the X to me is still a beta, and I have no reason to rush buying it now. The whole situation involving what I thought was an excessive hyping, what appeared to be a planned obsolescence of newer phones to urge the update (those with older phones will up date anyway type thinking), Timmy the Cook and Apple’s desperation for the up-sell strategy for what they knew was an overpriced phone, all combined stimulated my perverseness somewhere, and made me repelled, lol I’ve been irritated by Cook & Co., for it is so different from Jobs’ days (I think). I am reading every articles which say how good the X is, to convince myself, but so far, I have been successful for holding out. Fall will come soon.

        1. The X is awesome, nothing beta about it. If anything is limiting sales it’s that the screen is narrower, thus making most content smaller, than on the Plus. My 6 Plus was long in the tooth, so it was time for a change, though I may sell it to get the bigger X later this year. People with a 6s or 7 are probably doing fine and don’t need to impulsively buy an expensive, though excellent iPhone. For anyone with older models this is an extraordinary step up. More important than new hardware are improvements in iOS and Siri. Even on a shiny, new X, iOS is getting stale.

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