The strange case of the curious iPhone X production cut claims

“To put this all in perspective, consider the time when published reports indicated that demand for the iPhone 5 had collapsed towards the end of 2012. It was all based on claims of reduced component orders from Apple’s complicated supply chain, and the stock price fell appropriately,” Gene Steinberg writes for The Tech Night Owl. “Except, when actual sales for the December 2012 quarter were announced, sales had increased by a decent margin, not decreased.”

“Tim Cook’s responses to the misleading reports about the iPhone 5 were to educate industry analysts about the fact that you can’t make assumptions about product demand based on a few supply chain metrics,” Steinberg writes. “So you’ve probably read the recent stories. Reports from the supply chain, sourced in Taiwan, claim that orders for iPhone X have been sharply reduced for the March quarter. This has led some tech and industry pundits to claim that demand may be low because it’s too expensive.”

“Well, according to analyst Jun Zhang of Rosenblatt Securities, an investment firm, the supply chain reports of reduced iPhone X orders are incorrect. Zhang says that the cuts actually refer to the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus, consistent with the ramping up of iPhone X production. What’s more, the company claims to have seen evidence that sales are increasing in China… In the end, two factors will count most… The first is total iPhone sales; Apple doesn’t do model breakdowns. The other is the ASP, the average sale price, and if it is higher, that would mean more iPhone X sales. Some suggest it’ll exceed $700 for the first time.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Whenever this sort of silliness runs rampant, smart investors take advantage.

In honor of this now annual post-Christmas silly season, we’re backing up the truck.

Even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business… There is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on. Apple CEO Tim Cook, January 23, 2013

SEE ALSO:
Wall Street slips on tech sector weakness, report of soft iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Rosenblatt analyst: There’s no evidence of iPhone X production cuts – December 26, 2017
Apple stock tumbles on one poorly-sourced report of low iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Apple and suppliers shares drop on report of weak iPhone X demand – December 26, 2017
Nikkei: Apple to decrease iPhone production 10% in first quarter of 2017 – December 30, 2016
Nikkei proclaims ‘iPhone 7’ Dead On Arrival; bemoans Apple’s ‘lack of innovation’ – May 12, 2016
Japan’s Nikkei, The Wall Street Journal blow it, get iPhone demand story all wrong – January 16, 2013
Did Apple reduce 4-inch Retina display orders due to improving yields? – January 15, 2013
Analysts: iPhone 5 demand ‘robust;’ ignore the non-news noise – January 15, 2013
Apple iPhone suppliers decline on report orders cut by 50% – January 15, 2013
Apple swoon erases $17 billion from stock market – January 14, 2013
Apple iPhone 5 production cut signaling a new product release? – January 14, 2013
Apple drops to 11-month low on old reports of component cuts – January 14, 2013
The strange math of Apple’s alleged massive iPhone 5 component cuts – January 14, 2013
UBS analysts: Apple iPhone component order reduction ‘old news’ – January 14, 2013
Apple pulls down U.S. futures – January 14, 2013
Apple shares drop below $500 after reported cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders – January 14, 2013

10 Comments

  1. just as silly is the frivolous lawsuits because apple tried to help dummies by prolonging life and maintain safe operation of their old, often misused devices, they trump up (pun intended) false accusations of apple tricking them, conspiracists

  2. And the fact that it is still an iPhone being sold. iPhone X or 8..even if one was out selling, or eating up sales of the other…it is still an iPhone sold. It is the best scenario either way..and it’s how Apple likes it. Cannibalizing your own product..with your own product..is not something that should warrant a drop in stock price, lol. Fools will never learn and we continue to sit and watch a few folks manipulate the market.

  3. Planted stories to feed the traders that make money off the momentum of the stock. False story easily disproved stock moves back up again reflated by the ZIRP-powered liquidity of the Fed.

    1. Where’s there’s smoke there’s fire. APPL wouldn’t be adversely affected in the least if there wasn’t some historical presumption of guilt; and accruing animosity, frustration, and disappointment.

  4. The funny thing is this analyst Jun Zhang from Rosenblatt is USUALLY the one that has these negative Apple supply chain “reports”, so he knows a bad rumor when he hears one.

Leave a Reply to roscoe Cancel reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.