“Strategy Analytics is the source of the 2.2 million [Apple Watch] units estimate,” Max Greve reports for Seeking Alpha. “The 2.2 million number always seemed a little high to me. 2.2 million units at even a measly $400 ASP would have put Watch revenue at $880 million.”
“That never seemed very likely, since Apple’s most recent earnings report had ‘Other Products,’ which is Watch, TV, Beats and iPod, at $2.19 billion total,” Greve reports. “The number was only $500 million more than a year ago, which was the last quarter before Watch launched. So even if none of the other categories had grown at all, 1.2 million would have probably been closer to the truth.”
“Of course, iPod sales might make up some of the discrepancy. Sales of iPods have been falling for years, so if Watch picked up all the net growth, plus all the decline in iPod sales, it could grow more than the whole category,” Greve reports. “The problem is, iPod sales just aren’t big enough… Watch does not get to keep all, or even most, of the iPod/net growth money for itself. It has to share a substantial portion of it with another product. Apple TV and Apple Watch are both drinking from the same trough, revenue-wise. What’s good for one is bad for the other. Subtracting Apple TV’s low-ball $360 million leaves only $320 million for the Apple Watch… $320 million divided by $400 ASP leaves only 800,000 [Apple Watch] units sold.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: It’s now been over a year since Apple Watch launched. We expect to hear more about watchOS 2.0 (and maybe even something about the future of Apple Watch) next month at WWDC.
SEE ALSO:
IDC: Apple Watch continues to dominate in smartwatch market share – May 16, 2016
$50 price cut spurs 250% jump in Apple Watch purchases – May 10, 2016
Apple Watch debut-year sales doubled those of iPhone in its first year – May 6, 2016
Apple Watch predicted to capture 50% market share in 2016 – March 17, 2016
Thanks to Apple Watch, smartwatches are now more popular than Swiss watches – February 19, 2016
Canalys: Apple shipped over 12 million Apple Watches in 2015, two-thirds of all smartwatches shipped in 2015 – February 5, 2016
Apple Watch kickstarted interest in wearable devices; sales of fitness trackers and VR headsets are set for rapid growth – February 2, 2016
Apple Watch beats Rolex in luxury brands ranking – January 29, 2016
Apple Watch revenues expected to be $8.4 billion for first year – January 26, 2016
Juniper: Apple Watch has already cornered the smartwatch market – January 12, 2016
Apple COO: ‘Apple Watch marks the end of single-function wrist devices’ – January 7, 2016
Fitbit either doesn’t understand Apple Watch or hopes consumers won’t; neither is good for the company – January 6, 2016
Fitbit exec calls Apple Watch a ‘toy,’ Fitbit shares crater more than 13% after unveiling Apple Watch Sport knockoff – January 5, 2016
It’s official: The Apple Watch is destroying the so-called competition – November 20, 2015
As Apple Watch sales ramp, Swiss watch makers suffer biggest slump in six years – November 19, 2015
Apple Watch models take top four spots on 10 most-wanted smartwatches list – November 18, 2015
Apple Watch is 2016’s hottest holiday gift – November 18, 2015
Apple has already sold more than $1.7 billion worth of Apple Watches – October 29, 2015
Strategy Analytics: Apple Watch sells 4.5 million units in Q315, takes 74% global smartwatch market share – October 28, 2015
Apple Watch users are abandoning traditional watches – September 15, 2015
Over 1 million Apple Watches already sold in China – September 3, 2015
Apple Watch already dominates smart-wearables market, says IDC – August 28, 2015
IDC estimates Apple sold 3.6 million Apple Watch units in Q2 – August 27, 2015
Best Buy CEO: Apple Watch demand is ‘so strong’ that we’re expanding sales to all 1,050 stores – August 25, 2015
Swiss watch exports decline most since 2009 – August 20, 2015
Apple Watch takes 88% of total smartwatch revenue – August 14, 2015
Apple Watch kills a entire industry in three months – August 12, 2015
U.S. wristwatch sales post biggest drop in seven years after Apple Watch debut – August 7, 2015
Apple Watch dominates smartwatches with 75% market share – July 28, 2015
Juniper Research: Apple is world’s #1 smartwatch maker – July 23, 2015
Canalys: Apple ships 4.2 million Apple Watches in Q2 to become world’s top wearables vendor – July 21, 2015
Apple Watch satisfaction is unprecedented at 97%; beats original iPhone and iPad – July 20, 2015
Non-techies love their Apple Watches even more than tech users – July 20, 2015
Apple Watch is Apple’s most successful product debut ever – June 1, 2015
I wonder if eliminating the scroll wheel could lower the cost of the watch. I find that I never use it, relying on the usual touch screen gestures instead. Anybody else find the wheel superfluous?
It actually should have four more buttons, like a Garmin Runner’s Watch. As long as I use the AP indoors, it’s ok. Outdoors, with sweaty hands or rain, the screen is unresponsive, so use a Garmin for working out.
How about eliminating the call/payment button, I never use it.
I use it constantly. The button I almost never use, and could easily live without, is the side button.
Apple Watch, something that’s a problem in search of a solution. A fatally flawed product for one main reason:
A screen size that is just too small to serve as a valid computing device.
Another flaw is that a smartwatch is redundant in relation to a smartphone.
Then there’s all the other particular stuff like 1 day battery life, slow performance, etc.
While MDN and some fanboys will tout the Apple Watch, the real world isn’t buying smartwatches because of these above flaws. Smartwatches are a deadend product category.
I would buy an Apple Watch for no other reason than to add to my collection of Apple products.
As the math above shows, Apple Watch is nowhere near the success many here think it is.
Does it even matter? I feel certain Apple will never sell ENOUGH AppleWatches for investor’s satisfaction. I suppose every product Apple sells has to be close to iPhone sales numbers to be considered a success. I’ll bet Apple has received more profits from AppleWatch sales than any other company selling wearables. Although I’m not sure what the criteria for success is. Profits or most number of units sold?
For better or worse, Apple has always been held to a higher, if ludicrous, standard.
The stench of envy is overpowering at times.
You can waste a few moments reading any nonsense post from (anonymous) Joe, or you can save yourself the time and agravation and just skip (idiot) Joe’s post. You aren’t missing a thing except major and rampant stupidity
Guess which option is the better choice?
If you were a super-hero you’re mental power would be Turdman.
Surely watch sales are more titled towards the holidays, and on top of that a revamp is long due. I already plan to give one as a gift and would buy another for myself, but wouldn’t think of it until a new one is released. If sales weren’t currently in decline I’d be amazed.
Heavy drinking and posting is frowned on around here One Note Doofus Joe.
Talking about iPods, I know seven people who bought Apple Watches mainly because they want to use it as an iPod. When you cannot carry your phone and must use wireless earphones that’s pretty much the only option. Only problem is that you can’t load a separate library to the watch, it always mirrors the one in iPhone.