“The more that I look at the Apple Watch, the more I realise that it is not another runaway hit as the iPhone was,” Ewan Spence writes for Forbes. “The wearable is following a similar pattern of adoption and understanding as the iPad. That promises a long and healthy life as a secondary product range, but not one that can create the sort of wealth that the iPhone fostered.”
“This week’s research note from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi-Kuo suggests that Apple sold 10.6 million units during 2015,” Spence writes. “Even with the launch of a second-generation Apple Watch, the 2016 sales estimate is a smaller 7.5 million units in total – a thirty percent drop on the 2015 sales.”
“A single Apple Watch is going to have a much longer life cycle than the iPhone,” Spence writes. “It’s likely going to match the iPad in terms of hardware turnover and importance to Apple’s bottom line – a notable contribution but not a driving force.”
“And that’s fine,” Spence writes. “Not every piece of hardware can be a home run over the green monster. It’s just as important to grind out a win by getting on-base as often as possible.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Actually, it’s way too soon to say what Apple Watch’s replacement cycle will be.
And, Ming-Chi Kuo is excellent when it comes to forecasting materials, specs and features, much better than he is at forecasting unit sales.
Apple sold more than 10 million in 8 months on the market. In what universe is that not a “runaway hit”?
And there’s no way that an Apple Watch will have a replacement cycle longer than iPad. For one thing, it’s much cheaper than an iPad. Also, it is strapped to your wrist, so wear and tear is going to take its toll on the watch much faster than it does on an iPad.
The Sport and Stainless are in the same price range as ALL the iPads. No way are people going to be buying new Apple Watches every 2-3 years en masse. New models will appeal to the huge market that doesn’t have one yet. I like mine a lot, but if Apple kneecaps it with WatchOS updates in the next year or two I’ll pass on buying a new one. At most I’ll buy a refurbished v. 2.
I only know one person with an Apple Watch. And I have seen one other in the wild. Aussies, it seems, are not convinced.
Perhaps when it is 75% thinner, and has enough juice to continually display something on the otherwise black face, it might attract more attention.
As for Apple’s cynical targeting of the nouveau riche with ultra expensive gold versions of a very plain device – what were they thinking? There are people with money and people with class. In Europe they are often the same people. Not so much in the US and certainly not in China. If Apple thought a high end watch would attach some class to the product line, they were mistaken. If you wear a gold Apple watch with a silly double band it marks you out as someone with more money than sense, and no class at all.
Thanks ambassador RME.
The current Watch is like the 128k Mac, the original 128M iPhone, or the first generation iPad. It’s amazing for what it does, but it will take a generation or two before it’s really where it should be. I see the Watch 2 as the “Fat Mac” and the one following as the “Mac Plus.” 🙂
Oh wow. It looks like another recent survey indicates over +8% of the teens in the U.S. own an Apple Watch. How is it possible that two separate surveys report almost the same percentage, but are considered incorrect by the peanut gallery because it doesn’t correspond to the Apple Watch failure meme?
8% of U.S. teens represents around 3 million people. Add in sales from 75% of the U.S. population over the age of nineteen, and Kuo’s 10 million sold in 8 months (worldwide) calculation looks like he dug his number out of a cereal box.
And now, I dedicate a special song to the Kuo:
Ewan Spence
Regurgitates crap!
he’s a hit/click WHORE
Apple watch sucks!
It only works with thev latest iPhone only models. It doesn’t interface with any other iDevices, not even the new iPod Touch 6th generation (which is nearly an iPhone w/o the phone capabilities)! Until the Apple Watch can do more apps and computing stuff on its own without still needing to carry an iPhone ONLY device, can interface with other Apple iDevices AND the pricing comes down, I am not biting or in a hurry for an Apple watch.
I purchased and using a white Pebble Time watch I purchased, almost a year, ago, at half the price of an Apple watch and it CAN interface with all of my iDevices accept my iPad 2 because the iPad 2 uses an older version of the Bluetooth standard that is incompatible with newer Bluetooth in devices like the Pebble Time watch.
This watch interfaces with my iPod Touch 6th Gen, my iPad 3 AND my new iPad Pro.
A much better watch and deal for the $150-$199 price points.
People mistake it for the Apple watch all the time.
Pebble keeps issuing updates.
I love my Pebble watch.
Works well enough as a smartwatch for the price!
Pebble will be Apple roadKill soon! Following previous Apple roadkill like Nokia, Blackberry and Motorola
I would buy a Pepple Time watch too…
if I was a 5 year old girl.
While I love my 42mm Space Gray WATCH SPORT, I’m looking forward to buying the 2nd Gen model too. Bluetooth 4.2, faster WiFi 802.11ac, faster more energy efficient 16nm SOC, larger longer lasting battery, watchOS 3. Can’t wait to buy the 42mm matt Gold-Midnight Blue WATCH SPORT 2 on day one.😍
Ming isn’t ever close on unit numbers sold. He bribes people in the supply chain, but has proven to be off in almost all his unit estimates.