“It was a busy week of Apple news last week, but especially Apple Watch,” Teresa Rivas reports for Barron’s. “Apple filed its 10K with the Securities and Exchange Commission, with language suggesting that the Apple Watch saw $1.7 billion in sales in fiscal 2015.”
“However, Global Equities Research’s Trip Chowdhry is more bullish than that, and writes that Watch sales looks poised to balloon,” Rivas reports. “He [thinks] Apple sold 7.6 million Apple Watches in fiscal 2015, with an average selling price of $530, which translates into $4 billion in revenues. Keeping that same ASP of $530, he now estimates 43 million watches sold in fiscal 2016, or $23 billion in revenues, and 68 million sold in fiscal 2017, with $36 billion in revenues.”
“His research suggests that users are switching from [Android] phones… because they are not compatible with the Apple Watch,” Rivas reports, “and he estimates that some 10% of consumers who buy the latest generation iPhones also buy the Apple Watches concurrently.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The millions who already wear Apple Watches get it. Those who don’t may regard such estimates as outlandish.
Only 68 million?
I wonder at what point there might be a backlash against a ubiquitous Apple Watch and seeing it nearly on everyone? You can hide what smart phone you have but an Apple Watch is very conspicuous. The non-conformists out there may rebel just on principle and wear something else or nothing. As a stockholder I hope not.
So if you don’t want an Apple Watch, you are a non-conformist?
As far as Apple Watches yes. You aren’t following the trend if too many others are. It’s human nature to some degree.
Yeh, that’s something Apple should really be thinking about — don’t sell too many because some tiny number of immature dicks might then NOT buy one, just to show what “rebels” they are.
I never said Apple should think about it, it’s a possibility if the Apple Watch becomes wildly successful. Your post suggests you’ve been hanging out with too many other immature dicks.
Maybe Apple Watch will be seen more as a utility than a fashion accessory. Similar thing happened with iphone. Plus its got a lot more customization in the form of straps than the iPhone. Only time will tell.
One thing is for certain though. Trip is the worst of the worst of the worst. He goes with the momentum of news and puts outlandish stuff. He’s got no credible sources or insights (even compared to other analysts). He’s such a douche bag that no analyst firm would hire him. Thats why he’s one of 3 employess in “Global” equities, working out of a basement and having an outsized presence in apple news. MDN, please STOP supporting this click-baiter!!
Pretty close to what Tim Cook said at the release, about 50 million units.
Inconceivable!
It seems like a wildly optimistic sales number. How many AppleWatches has Apple sold so far? Did they guess around 5 million? I think Apple would be fortunate to sell 10 million a year and that could be considered successful for Apple. Of course, that would be a failure to everyone else.
Currently the general opinion is around 7-8 million watches sold since Mid March thru September, roughly 6 months, so taking the high estimate that brings us to 16 million in 12 months, not counting the coming holiday season where Apple would concievably sell twice as many… perhaps 14 million or so, that alone would account for 30 million sold in year 2015, and if you account for the slow roll-out and early distribution issues, and lack of outlets combined with the current distribution channels, 30 million could well be short by quite a bit…. I Think I can, I Think I can, I Think Can….choo, choo, choo choo.
I have been modeling mass adoption of the Apple Watch to occur during FY 207. Bundling discounts and the iPhone upgrade program will make it financially easier for that to occur then.
I think the primary motive for the iPhone annual upgrade program is what Apple has planned for Apple Watch 2 functionality, and what it will require of iPhone 6S computing power to fulfill its potential. Increasing the number of iPhone 6S handsets on the wild, either through 2nd tier product discounting or availability of refurb trade-ins will increase the uptake of Apple Watches.
FY2018 should be a blockbuster year, what with mass adoption of the Apple Watch, Apple TV (with content sales), Apple Music subscriptions and ubiquitousness of Apple Pay, not to mention whatever Apple may introduce along the way.
From your models to reality then.
Fiscal 2015,2016,2017 ? What the hell is a fiscal year
in this context ?
I went to my local Apple Store a few days ago to pick up an Apple TV. It was crowded, as usual. Every table was humming with lookers and shoppers. Except for one lonely table which was ignored completely while I was in the store. No-one here, it seems, is interested in Apple Watch. And it has been the same story every time I have looked in the window.
I have seen two apple watches in the wild In Sydney.