“The Apple Car is one of the most anticipated vehicles ever, blurring the line between devices and cars and due for release in 2019,” Curtis Moldrich reports for Alphr. “We still know almost nothing about what it will look like and what features it will have – but we now have a better idea of how much it might cost.”
“According to technology analysts Jefferies and Co, the Apple Car will cost an average of $55,000 (£36,000),” Moldrich reports. “What’s more, the 68-page note produced by the firm goes on to estimate that Apple will sell over 200,000 units of its first vehicle.”
“Jefferies and Co claims this is an average price, and it’s likely that – just like the Apple Watch – the Apple Car will be available in a range of premium and budget trims, with different price points to match,” Moldrich reports. “Interestingly, Jefferies and Co’s forecast of 200,000 sales suggests that the Apple Car will be far more successful than Tesla’s current line-up: despite being in business for ten years, Tesla is forecast to sell 55,000 cars in 2015.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: That’s not a bad price! Of course, let’s see exactly what if offers first, okay? How anyone can estimate unit sales numbers at this point with a straight face is beyond us.
As we wrote back in March:”When Apple enters markets, it’s because they can bring something(s) so unique to the table that significant disruption is inevitable.”
It goes without saying that Apple would create a premium vehicle, premium-priced for premium customers as usual, not a some low-end crate. — MacDailyNews, September 21, 2015
SEE ALSO:
Apple speeds up electric-car efforts, aims for 2019 ‘ship date’ – September 21, 2015
Survey: 77% of hybrid or electric vehicle owners would likely buy an Apple Car – May 13, 2015
What to expect from the Apple Car: Disruption – August 31, 2015
Apple Car: Tesla engineer joins Apple’s ‘Project Titan’ vehicle effort – August 21, 2015
Apple Car development proceeds apace – July 27, 2015
Apple hires veteran Fiat Chrysler auto industry executive – July 20, 2015
What’s up with Carl Icahn’s sudden obsession with the Apple Car? – May 18, 2015
Survey: 77% of hybrid or electric vehicle owners would likely buy an Apple Car – May 13, 2015
Apple Car: Forget ‘electric,’ think hydrogen fuel cells – February 20, 2015
Apple working with Intelligent Energy on fuel cell technology for mobile devices, sources say – July 14, 2014
North Carolina regulators approve Apple’s 4.8-megawatt fuel cell facility at Maiden data center – May 23, 2012
New aerial images of Apple’s planned NC fuel cell, solar farms published – April 7, 2012
Apple’s massive fuel cell energy project to be largest in the U.S. – April 4, 2012
Apple patent application reveals next-gen fuel cell powered Macs and iOS devices – December 22, 2011
Apple patent app details highly-advanced hydrogen fuel cells to power portable devices – October 20, 2011
I must say, I don’t envy the job of analysts. Their clients demand accurate predictions on future events, products and services, oftentimes based on literally NOTHING (other than rumours)! Most of these analysts try to apply some sort of method in their work (looking at comparable offerings in the market, extrapolating from there, adjusting for some predictable factors, etc), but in the end, what they do is a very methodical, perhaps even scientific, wild guessing.
That somebody can predict that an Apple Car will cost $55,000 and that it will sell 200,000 in is first year is as wild a guess as one could possibly make, regardless of meticulousness of method used to get to it.
What becomes a problem then is when these wild guesses are amplified by the internet echo chamber, gaining legitimacy and veracity on nothing other than the volume of repetition. Eventually, Apple does launch a car, but the price is significantly higher (or lower), and the consequence is massive movement in the market (not just AAPL, but GM, Tesla, EU and Japanese automakers…).
I agree – there’s a lot of black magic to where numbers get pulled from.
In this case, the baseline news report isn’t clear if the claimed 200K units is first year, three years or the next 50 years … but what this also means is that it will be misinterpreted no matter what happens to manipulate Apple’s stock price.
FWIW, when I put my own armchair analyst hat on, I see that BMW’s efforts are only selling 30K units/year (i3 & i8 combined), that Tesla still is losing money on every sale, and that the projections on oil prices is that they’re going to remain cheap for the next few years … all in all, it’s a good time to NOT be selling an EV.
But with 4 to 5 more years of development and scaling of hydrogen-based fuel cells, which could & would be an interesting game-changer, particularly to keep the Li-Ion battery pack size costs down and to sidestep the range/recharge issues of pure electrics…and that we do know that Apple has been doing small-scale R&D on this Tech.
Finally, at a $55K average price point, I’d just assume buy another Porsche instead of an Apple Car…and in context, Porsche has been pushing themselves to try to grow to a 200K/year sized company (they’ll probably do so by 2017), but with a ~5 vehicle product line-up, 3 of which start at roughly this price point and which currently constitute roughly 2/3rds of their units sold. This is merely another market reference point which puts the analysts’ projections into perspective as IMO quite overly optimistic…even before you break the code on Porsche’s dealership density criteria (eg, one store per ~1 million general population)
Not only are these cluless analists making projections based on pure speculation that there will even be a car, but in today’s idiocarcy they will not hesitate to already declare that it’s baked into the stock price and then even have the balls to declare that it will not meet these idiotic expectations…
Ummm, think seeng and knowng a product and pertinent details, might help?
Pre mature conjecture adn ejaculation
Knowing Apple, I bet tires are not user replaceable. Blow a tire and you’d have to replace the car!
Tires for the vehicle Apple will call “Car” will be available through third-party tire developers in strict compliance with Apple’s WheelKit™ API.
Apple will keep 30% of the proceeds.
Yes! Frankly, in regards to Apple, we get much better predictions from the posters here at MDN than the “experts.”
not only that, lets see what it looks like.
an ugly ass car, no matter the pedigree is still an ugly ass car.
when you build a car build one that looks good, not like one of those boxy sions, or whatever they are, that seem designed specifically to plumb the depths of aesthetic poor taste of the american motoring public
You mean the thing with the weird window on the back that curves around only one side of it? It reminds me of Will I Am’s hair.
One thing we do know is that there will be immediate calls for Cooks head for one reason or another after its launched.
“We still know almost nothing about what it will look like and what features it will have – but we now have a better idea of how much it might cost.”
So with a complete absence of facts, they feel able to predict the selling price and the sales figures?
Looking at the linked article gives us a few insights that are only possible from a brilliant analyst and would be quite beyond the comprehension of any mere mortal such as you to I.
“The Apple Car should have clean lines, utilitarian design and the attention to detail shown in Jonathan Ive’s existing Apple products.”
Well, there was me expecting Jony Ive this time to offer big fins, lots of chrome and stained glass windows bearing a lily of the valley motif.
“It’s almost certain that the Apple Car will feature an advanced version of CarPlay too”.
What no Android Auto?
“We strongly expect the Apple Car to be powered purely on electricity”
There’s a gap in the market for steam powered cars, especially log burning steam cars. I don’t think anybody has got that niche covered.
These analysts really know their shit.
Sorry correction –
These analysts really know they’re shit.
Kids need to graduate college first.
It’s really amazing what an analyst can generate with anatomic extraction and rabid speculation.
That the media runs their BS as if their wild assumptions were facts is akin to enabling heroin addicts with a continuous supply.
All of which sets lofty expectations that likely cannot be met, with the resulting swoon and derision from – get ready – the media. Because of course.
May God have mercy on us all.
Put me down for two, maybe 3 if I can sell my Tesla model S.
Will it blend?
O M F G
S T F U ! ! !
Idiocy to the max. Here we are entirely UNCERTAIN that Apple is even making a car, and deranged cockroaches crawl out of the woodwork telling us how much this vaporous car is going to cost.
This is speculative bullshit journalist at its WORST.
Bite Me technology analcysts Jefferies and Co!
Bad cal to publish this rectal extrusion Alphr!
Respell! -> Bad CALL to publish this…
The days of disruption are over for Apple. Also 4 years is a very long period. There are going to be lot of new cars and new designs in the next few years leaving very little for Apple to disrupt. Google, Tesla and Mercedes are far advanced in the design and technologies relating to driverless cars while Apple is getting started. Looking at iPhone 6s and new TV box one thing is quite obvious: Tim Cook is not giving us cutting edge technologies. The news that 6s camera is worse than nearly half dozen Android phones was really depressing. But that is new Apple. It is all about keeping hefty margins, not new technological innovations.
I somehow doubt it will look anything close to my $52k Mercedes sport coupe. That thing looks mean and classy and sporty and awesome all at the same time. I’ve had it for a couple years and still get excited at the fact that to find my car I just need to look for the best looking car in the parking lot, literally.
It will also be milled out of a solid block of 7000 series billet aluminum with a sapphire windshield. This beauty will be charged with the new giant MagSafe 3. Some kid at school told me.
Will it be THIN?
Since that’s more than I make a year, I’ll stick to buying used cars, or new ones that cost less than $20K, or keep to taking the T, thanks. Then again, I knew it would be out of my range- seems like Apple has effectively priced most of its new products out of my reach, which, unfortunately, has also made them undesirable.